Again, the ICON, but shows the complexity in trying to get a Euro result. 4 separate sw's trying to interact flying around the retro'ing block. No model will firmly grasp this complexity until under 84 hrs out imho.
I know it's the ICON but likely shows the way to a fail with this one. 6z has the energy out west split into distinct NS and STJ vorts. By the end of the 6z run you can see the STJ sw getting hurried due East via a kicker right on its heels. Now the jury is out where the run would go if extended, but seems to me this is showing what we've seen recently where things get sheared or progressive in the stj and aren't able to phase cleanly. Looks like a sloppy phase imo there at best. Euro is the extreme outlier.
Third wave always holds the best potential and couple that progression with an Archambault event and we may be talking legit KU in another couple days.