Ralph Wiggum

The 850 low is in a perfect spot....right now. But it has done more than just 'tick' N the past 3 runs. It has jumped N 125 miles on 3 consecutive euro runs. We are fine right now, but the trend is alarming honestly.....we r out of wiggle room SE PA i95 and 15 miles N and W. Careful what you wish for. I warned about this N jump in a Nina with a block pulling away and debated with those in other subs saying this was going to be squashed. It could flip either way still right now we have 3.5 days to go. Too close for comfort. And justifying with "we'll be fine all the big one mix" isn't the same argument anymore. This could go from being a big one to a big letdown quickly. Temper expectations.

Ugh, Brady just knotted the game at 24 for the MA crew after they were up big at the half and popping champagne. Now u had to go and do the same? This is still trending N and warmish. Let's pause.on the celebrations until Saturday night. I have a very uneasy feeling about this still. 3 for 4 tonight.....that 1 miss is looming large attm and staring us in the face with an evil smirk. Need to get to 4 for 4 soon on one of these suites.

This is a deformation crushing look for SE PA N and W of I95. Hardly moves too. 2 for 3

Tucked and stalled 40 miles SSE of Cape May as per the UKIE is benchmark for a classic here.

H5 is beautiful thru 102

Just saw the UKMET. Step to the good. Might call it a BIG step. Ninja'd

You're not wrong. NAM was close to the euro at 84hrs so there's that.

Ok, 1 for 2 Has the crazy uncle woken from his drunken slumber yet?

CMC 6-12" most of SE PA We are 1 for 3 so far tonight

Only 2 good things came out of Canada....hockey and the rock band RUSH. They can keep their weather models to be quite honest.

Hope the Euro holds steady and that the GFS is out to lunch because the GEFS just doubled down on the GFS op and said hold my beer.

A shade more thru 108hrs with more to come from the ull pass

CMC is odd....tucked solution but best snows across the Del River.

CMC holds course.

I would be surprised if the euro doesn't at least back off a little from the textbook vort, timing, trof amplitude, phase, transfer, location, and capture this run. 12z was perfection that won't be repeated. Just bracing y'all for it.

Correcting.....Euro is the only model with a clean and near perfect phase and timing. No one will say it but the Euro is on an Island in that regard.

I'm not sure the GFS is off base tbh. It has barely wavered. And the sloppy phase and late transfer with stronger primary trend is a strong possibility still.

Yep, by the time the WAA stuff gets here the block and confluence and associated arctic hp are pulling N. So we get little WAA then the coastal is too late to develop. CMC is about to cash the check on this one.

Tom Brady is starting the drive on his own 20 to start the 4th qtr down 24-17. Never count Brady out even when the Euro is steadfast on HECS/BECS .

2-4" here over 30 hrs lol

Remember what Newman and I have been saying for days. This is typical Niña storm at play here. Keeps ticking N and eventually is a New England bomb. This is trending no different. The stall look now has moved from off VA Beach to off OC, MD, to off AC, and now the best stuff is trending to happen closer to the benchmark for New England.

0 for 2...GFS is brief thump to rain then dryslot SE PA. SECS. GFS has been consistent asf. I will take any snow,but the euro is clearly alone on an island right now with the MECS/HECS thing.

Deeper primary by 3 mb over last 3 runs in the midwest

It's a sloppy phase and slow transfer like the GFS, CMC, and UKMET. Its not an impossible solution considering it has some support. You do realize the euro is essentially alone and the extreme solution attm right? And most other guidance is signaling a SECS/MECS but a messy way of going around it. We don't do messy or complicated well.