Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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6z NAVGEM is a crusher!!
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What did I miss? 6Z says the Euro was all just a bad dream. As you were.
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Was just going to post this. Sweet dreams guys and gals. See you in the am. Tomorrow should be fun with mesos getting in better range.
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Need UKIE on board, make this 6 for 6 going into the Euro. I won't make it to the euro but if I can go to sleep with a 6 for 6 under 100hrs to showtime, I'm sleeping real good.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2020/2021 OBS Thread
Ralph Wiggum replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Wind gusts are howling. It is winter now, that's for damn sure. Chills in single digits easily. -
Oh wow, that is a classic look
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Congrats Ant!!
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Weenie handbook chapter 4 page 481 section 2....the ICON is a JV model and shall only be grouped with the other JV models for purposes of forming a concensus and not blended with the big boys and/or mesos. Eta: however, as noted above when showing over 12" snow, it is allowable to be hugged and thrown in the fray if and only if we are under 108 hrs out from onset of precip
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Cool to see our southern friends in DC get a lolli right over them. That run made me smile for all from DC to NYC
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1 for 1....CMC setting up a 2 for 2 it appears early
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GFS looks similar to icon. Not quite as intense qpf banding but slower moving tucked solution. Banding will be picked up better by the mesos anyway. I expect some crazy NAM and RGEM runs beginning tomorrow.
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GFS caved and is on board
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I know inside you've been on this. Your posts are evident of the reverse psychology. Keep doing whatever it is you're doing....bring this one home. P.S. nice to see the fly guys take 2 from NJ...even tho they suck still feels good
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Appendix F, page xvii, paragraph 5 to be exact.
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Wait, that's metfan?? I didnt even know that, I must be under a frikken rock lol.
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Yeah right. Im pretty sure you've downplayed this from the get-go citing seasonal trends. Im entitled to one off-run meltdown. Its been exhausting since I began tracking this on Jan 15 (go in the obs thread....yes almost 2 weeks watching this). Im starting to suffer from model exhaustion
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I do think the Euro may have done one of those overcorrections we often see when energy comes ashore. Expect it to slowly go back the other way by 12z tomorrow. May not get back to the HECS looks, but I doubt the low just escapes off of VA Beach either. ICON (I know, it sucks) is a beaut.
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But does it? The UKMET went that route, the JMA is doing that, the NAVGEM is doing that, and the NAM at range is doing that. All the things we always go against and the Euro which has been rock steady jumps over to the JV models which may end up scoring a coup with the CRAS of all models unamped, South, and leading the coup.
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I'm going to see myself out now lol. Trying to tell myself this is the usual overcompensating /overadjustment we sometimes see when the energy hits the West Coast and maybe it comes back N in 24 hours. Yes, windshield wipers Paul. Just odd and unsettling to see the ens means so drastically diverse.
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Trends Paul.....trends
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Ok....regroup time. The progressive NAVGEM is a complete capture coast hugger that slams us. So that has to be worth something. Eta: nevermind that was 12z. 18z is missing the capture and stays south. Confluence ftl...damn
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18z EPS mean: One of these is going to fail like never witnessed before.
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I hope your are right, but all signs are starting to lean against a capture now across guidance...slower transfer, farther South, confluence pressing South.
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That's a massive swing for 1 run...wow.. Congrats guys. And good call @psuhoffman
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18z eps mean is plain fugly. Congrats S NJ....sorry N and W of i95 crew. No capture and off she goes.
