Ralph Wiggum

Deeper primary by 3 mb over last 3 runs in the midwest

It's a sloppy phase and slow transfer like the GFS, CMC, and UKMET. Its not an impossible solution considering it has some support. You do realize the euro is essentially alone and the extreme solution attm right? And most other guidance is signaling a SECS/MECS but a messy way of going around it. We don't do messy or complicated well.

O for 1 at 0z. ICON was a disaster. Brief thump to rain to dryslot.

ICON is trending better and getting a clue finally. Better cad and waa stuff.

The JV models (JMA and NAVGEM) are complete misses from DC to Boston. Not even a flake or drop of rain.

That 993 low west of Philly.

I would be very surprised if the euro held as-is for the next 4 days. That is probably the extreme solution. Doubt it folds completely either obviously but cmon, be realistic. We aren't going to see that consistent textbook prog for 4 straight days.

Don't get me wrong....I would take a 4-6" event and be thrilled. Just wondering why qpf didn't match up. Then again, that is usually one of the last things to get fine tuned, so I should know better and answered my own question.

I mean, a foot is no joke but the way h5 played out would have assumed higher amts more widespread. I wonder what made 96 and 2016 such big events? Even this one looks to stall and has an excellent moisture feed

Too norther too fast. I didt like that large a jump but we don't control what's going to happen. Knew it was coming tho based off 6z eps.

Not saying they won't get crushed but after the last 5 debacles they were bullseyed and popping champagne corks 2 days ago. Wayyy too early. Still too early to be end zone dancing for DC to Philly tbh.

I would be sweating bullets if I lived south of say the Bel Air latitude in MD. Im not even comfortable here (never was fully) but there is wiggle room and we've still yet to get bullseyed. I dont mind where we sit attm.

Yep, the usual N trend with these types in Nina years has commenced. For the other sub, Brady just threw a bomb on first down...made the 2-pt conversion. 24-17...6:35 left in the 3rd qtr. The lead is slipping away.

Did some research and the last time we had a similar setup to this during a Niña that ultimately ended up producing was.......January 1996 Eta: wrt big closed ull rolling thru the midwest/OV, transfer, ultimate capture

We've yet to be bullseyed here. We r losing that cursed time frame by 0z tonight/6z tomorrow where you dont want to be "in the zone". This has all the familiar earmarks of a good storm here. I like where we are sitting attm.

Tom Brady is starting the drive on the opponent 49 yard line down 24-9 with 7 mins left in the 3rd. Lots of time.

So wound up captured and tugged inland is a viable option still is what you are saying?

Yepper. The op is going to cave at 12z....Mark my words. The 6z eps are tucked really tight to the coast. Almost too N and too tucked but verbatim is an almost perfect track for this area.

6z NAVGEM doesn't get snow into SE PA until Tuesday AM via the pivot and deformation band. Hardly any WAA stuff...just a stalled crawler N along the coast.

6z NAVGEM clobbers you with the deform band @CAPE ... thats a stall in the right spot for your area.

Almost all guidance is in sync with low pressure redeveloping just to the South of Hatteras near Ocracoke. Then they diverge thereafter with the strength, depth, and location of the 2nd sw diving into the back of the trof. To phase in time and capture is the real question and difference between the slp headed NE/ENE and being a minor/moderate event or drifting N and tucking into the DelMarVa on its slow journey NNE delivering a significant. Should be able to muster a warning level event out of this for SE PA at the very least.

The crazy uncle has been hitting the moonshine again

Hmmm, H5 implied a better hit. Thats why I dislike snow maps at this juncture.

That's a fairly classic look tbh and mixing in the city during these events for a period is very common. This is a little different tho as the ull is closed and moves right over us while capturing the slp. Lots of dynamics at play. That's something tbd later. But yes, having some mixing work in is common.