Ralph Wiggum
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Everything posted by Ralph Wiggum
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Correcting.....Euro is the only model with a clean and near perfect phase and timing. No one will say it but the Euro is on an Island in that regard.
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I'm not sure the GFS is off base tbh. It has barely wavered. And the sloppy phase and late transfer with stronger primary trend is a strong possibility still.
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Yep, by the time the WAA stuff gets here the block and confluence and associated arctic hp are pulling N. So we get little WAA then the coastal is too late to develop. CMC is about to cash the check on this one.
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Tom Brady is starting the drive on his own 20 to start the 4th qtr down 24-17. Never count Brady out even when the Euro is steadfast on HECS/BECS .
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2-4" here over 30 hrs lol
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Remember what Newman and I have been saying for days. This is typical Niña storm at play here. Keeps ticking N and eventually is a New England bomb. This is trending no different. The stall look now has moved from off VA Beach to off OC, MD, to off AC, and now the best stuff is trending to happen closer to the benchmark for New England.
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0 for 2...GFS is brief thump to rain then dryslot SE PA. SECS. GFS has been consistent asf. I will take any snow,but the euro is clearly alone on an island right now with the MECS/HECS thing.
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Deeper primary by 3 mb over last 3 runs in the midwest
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It's a sloppy phase and slow transfer like the GFS, CMC, and UKMET. Its not an impossible solution considering it has some support. You do realize the euro is essentially alone and the extreme solution attm right? And most other guidance is signaling a SECS/MECS but a messy way of going around it. We don't do messy or complicated well.
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O for 1 at 0z. ICON was a disaster. Brief thump to rain to dryslot.
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ICON is trending better and getting a clue finally. Better cad and waa stuff.
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The JV models (JMA and NAVGEM) are complete misses from DC to Boston. Not even a flake or drop of rain.
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That 993 low west of Philly.
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I would be very surprised if the euro held as-is for the next 4 days. That is probably the extreme solution. Doubt it folds completely either obviously but cmon, be realistic. We aren't going to see that consistent textbook prog for 4 straight days.
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Don't get me wrong....I would take a 4-6" event and be thrilled. Just wondering why qpf didn't match up. Then again, that is usually one of the last things to get fine tuned, so I should know better and answered my own question.
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I mean, a foot is no joke but the way h5 played out would have assumed higher amts more widespread. I wonder what made 96 and 2016 such big events? Even this one looks to stall and has an excellent moisture feed
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Too norther too fast. I didt like that large a jump but we don't control what's going to happen. Knew it was coming tho based off 6z eps.
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Not saying they won't get crushed but after the last 5 debacles they were bullseyed and popping champagne corks 2 days ago. Wayyy too early. Still too early to be end zone dancing for DC to Philly tbh.
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I would be sweating bullets if I lived south of say the Bel Air latitude in MD. Im not even comfortable here (never was fully) but there is wiggle room and we've still yet to get bullseyed. I dont mind where we sit attm.
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Yep, the usual N trend with these types in Nina years has commenced. For the other sub, Brady just threw a bomb on first down...made the 2-pt conversion. 24-17...6:35 left in the 3rd qtr. The lead is slipping away.
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Did some research and the last time we had a similar setup to this during a Niña that ultimately ended up producing was.......January 1996 Eta: wrt big closed ull rolling thru the midwest/OV, transfer, ultimate capture
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We've yet to be bullseyed here. We r losing that cursed time frame by 0z tonight/6z tomorrow where you dont want to be "in the zone". This has all the familiar earmarks of a good storm here. I like where we are sitting attm.
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Tom Brady is starting the drive on the opponent 49 yard line down 24-9 with 7 mins left in the 3rd. Lots of time.
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
Ralph Wiggum replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
So wound up captured and tugged inland is a viable option still is what you are saying?
