Ralph Wiggum

Yepper. The op is going to cave at 12z....Mark my words. The 6z eps are tucked really tight to the coast. Almost too N and too tucked but verbatim is an almost perfect track for this area.

6z NAVGEM doesn't get snow into SE PA until Tuesday AM via the pivot and deformation band. Hardly any WAA stuff...just a stalled crawler N along the coast.

6z NAVGEM clobbers you with the deform band @CAPE ... thats a stall in the right spot for your area.

Almost all guidance is in sync with low pressure redeveloping just to the South of Hatteras near Ocracoke. Then they diverge thereafter with the strength, depth, and location of the 2nd sw diving into the back of the trof. To phase in time and capture is the real question and difference between the slp headed NE/ENE and being a minor/moderate event or drifting N and tucking into the DelMarVa on its slow journey NNE delivering a significant. Should be able to muster a warning level event out of this for SE PA at the very least.

The crazy uncle has been hitting the moonshine again

Hmmm, H5 implied a better hit. Thats why I dislike snow maps at this juncture.

That's a fairly classic look tbh and mixing in the city during these events for a period is very common. This is a little different tho as the ull is closed and moves right over us while capturing the slp. Lots of dynamics at play. That's something tbd later. But yes, having some mixing work in is common.

GEFS have a strong signal/cluster of lows that stall just E of the DelMarVa and essentially stall/crawl to just off the S NJ coast to the benchmark.

Tom Brady's team D just got a safety to make it 24-9 and are getting the ball back with 10 mins to go in the third (see inside joke from earlier today).

In that case, the GEFS is loving us!

Gulf feed. Very impressive!

Meh, snow hole here. Toss it .

If you go back and look at the past few runs, the block is relaxing its grip (trend) more and the overall lw is adjusting N. Diff is the vort is the same lat essentially....for now. That will tick N later on in a couple days. The nao ridge is still there just enough to not pull the trof too far n and not strong enough to shit the bed over the OV. Buckle up.

The euro is overdone imho and too far S. It is being hugged because it is extreme but ask yourself honestly....when was the last time the most extreme solution panned out, euro or not. That isn't a bet that I would want to take. Using the euro as a high end piece of guidance but following along with the more 'tame' group of modeling seems the way to go here until the euro gets unanimous solid support.

Deformation band won't be disjointed. Most of the region sits underneath for 18+ hrs

CMC is a shellacking!

Fyp

GFS is very ICONish. The euro is sort of alone attm tbh with the Southern thing. I believe the truth lies right now between a euro and GFS solution much like every storm this winter. This is about the time the Euro begins to meet in the middle with the GFS. Still don't think suppression will be our fail possibility here with what is happening in Eastern Canada. Seems most folks are keyed in on the vort track on the euro et al and not paying attention to the relaxing up top which will not allow for the South ticks to continue on the euro. We are in an outstanding spot attm.

I honestly don't remember. I can tell you it doesn't happen often tho. Jan 2016 might have.

EPS went South. Oh well, stick a fork in it

Absolutely yes in these Archambault setups.

I wouldn't kick that outta bed

I posted there earlier that earlier today it was like their football team was up by 21 pts at halftime vs Tom Brady. They kicked a fg and are up 24 with 12mins left in the 3rd now. But Brady is pissed and staring angrily on the other sideline.

What are your totals on the para and euro? I'm at work cant look. Ty

Lock it up. We need a DC-BOS KU. ALL of us. Then we can go out for beers.