Ralph Wiggum

Gulf feed. Very impressive!

Meh, snow hole here. Toss it .

If you go back and look at the past few runs, the block is relaxing its grip (trend) more and the overall lw is adjusting N. Diff is the vort is the same lat essentially....for now. That will tick N later on in a couple days. The nao ridge is still there just enough to not pull the trof too far n and not strong enough to shit the bed over the OV. Buckle up.

The euro is overdone imho and too far S. It is being hugged because it is extreme but ask yourself honestly....when was the last time the most extreme solution panned out, euro or not. That isn't a bet that I would want to take. Using the euro as a high end piece of guidance but following along with the more 'tame' group of modeling seems the way to go here until the euro gets unanimous solid support.

Deformation band won't be disjointed. Most of the region sits underneath for 18+ hrs

CMC is a shellacking!

Fyp

GFS is very ICONish. The euro is sort of alone attm tbh with the Southern thing. I believe the truth lies right now between a euro and GFS solution much like every storm this winter. This is about the time the Euro begins to meet in the middle with the GFS. Still don't think suppression will be our fail possibility here with what is happening in Eastern Canada. Seems most folks are keyed in on the vort track on the euro et al and not paying attention to the relaxing up top which will not allow for the South ticks to continue on the euro. We are in an outstanding spot attm.

I honestly don't remember. I can tell you it doesn't happen often tho. Jan 2016 might have.

EPS went South. Oh well, stick a fork in it

Absolutely yes in these Archambault setups.

I wouldn't kick that outta bed

I posted there earlier that earlier today it was like their football team was up by 21 pts at halftime vs Tom Brady. They kicked a fg and are up 24 with 12mins left in the 3rd now. But Brady is pissed and staring angrily on the other sideline.

What are your totals on the para and euro? I'm at work cant look. Ty

Lock it up. We need a DC-BOS KU. ALL of us. Then we can go out for beers.

I'm willing to bet that IF guidance is correct in weakening the block and drifting it away from the NAO region, these Southern hits will begin to shift N. This isn't like the past 2 weeks or so with the shred machine under the block. Like I said a few mins ago and as Iceman has noted, the GFS thump to rain idea is a very valid concern attm. Im less worried about a miss S than I am this tracking too far N or developing too close to the coast. I would NOT want to be in the bullseye at 6 days....period. I dont EVER recall a time (not that it hasn't happened) where a bullseye held up until storm time. Whatever happens will happen tho, I'm not losing sleep over it. I do like where we stand attm.

Euro doesn't flip in one run...usually baby steps if it is gonna cave

And this is the risk we run with Archambault events as the block pulls away. Allows warming and farther N track. She presents this fail scenario nicely in her thesis on NAO fluxes

Some pingers mixing in now

Drizzle. 34F

But that was skewed severely. There were hints with this system that it would shear out. More likely we get something early next week than not. Just a question of how much.

Seriously. We all need a Mid-Atl (to Philly ) special to right this ship.

This. The forum is the best of both worlds. Seeing long-timers getting excited over the euro is normal, but also gets folks excited for what the mod depicts. Just playing devils advocate a little noting how this isn't a lock by any means yet. Heck, one could look at that ICON I posted and say there is a perfect phase of 4 vorts about to occur. Just being cautiously optimistic. I will try and do better. BTW, has anyone checked on Ji?

Was the clustering of farther offshore solutions there at 6z? I noticed the 6z GEFS picked up on those a bit too.

The blocking IS easing. Thats why there is the potential. But just weakened NAO alone doesn't always yield a KU. Need alot of pieces to come together. Look, I'm not trying to crap in anyone's Wheaties....just trying to temper expectations for all of us. Im confident we get some snow, I just think with the complexity of the flow, hoping for a blockbuster event is a dangerous road to take. We have been down that road recently. Keep things in check for a few more days....but most folks here are already aware of this.