Ralph Wiggum

Windshield wiper effect. SE PA is the middle of the narrowing goalposts. 40ish hrs to go and what a great place to be attm.

I just posted it in an edit

Didn't see the RGEM posted but that ticked NW too. Still snowing at end of run. Sharp cutoff tho to the left of that deform band. Someone is going to get majorly shafted

That is very misleading S of the mason-dixon. There is ALOT of mixing this run. DC is actually mostly sleet per soundings.

3k NAM is better...much weaker/flatter with that vort.over New England around 54 I mentioned earlier....looks tucked into VA Beach. SLP depiction at 60 is actually inland. Fairly far S too

Breaks and light/moderate ... for now. Has room for upside. Learned from the past better to start conservative and tick up than go balls deep at 12" to start and have to keep shaving.

Thanks Ant

How does that compare to 0z or 6z?

Conservatively I would say this looks like a moderate event (at the least) with 4-6" being likely and the *potential* for around a foot of snow on the higher end all relative to location.

This is their once a year event. Take whatever they can....they haven't had one in a few years.

4th and goal for Brady on the 4. FG unit is coming onto the field. Should be an easy chip shot to take the lead here with under 5 to play. Time out taken by his opponent to try and ice the kicker. Not sure I agree with the time management call but we'll see. And here we go....for the lead (or the loss in our case)....here's the snap....the kick is up...AND IT'S BLOCKED!!!! THE FG IS BLOCKED!!! Recovered and downed by the defense on their own 17. Wow, what a turn of events here to stop the drive. Unbelievable. This one is going to come down to the wire. We get the ball back with 4:20 to play tied at 24 and all Brady can do is sit on the sideline and hope his D holds and he gets a late shot at a drive. How fitting would this be for a rare upset for the DC/Philly teams. Wow!

The goalposts are narrowing and SE PA is still in middle or a dickhair to the left of the best snows. We take.

UKIE looks like the CMC upstairs. Not horrible at the surface. Step back from the ledge my friend

Tom Brady 2nd and goal with the game tied at 24 and 5 mins to play. We need a fumble or a pick here!

UKIE is stronger with that feature also....let's see what it does at the surface

Getting a little late in the game for ens

What is unsettling in addition is guidance showing that death band with divergence aloft and subsidence to the left. One area will be seeing 2"/hr or more while 15 miles west is seeing very lightly accumulating snow. That cutoffs from that sort of look that we have been thru before can cause major headaches for some. Imho we are losing the widespread MECS signal and getting more isolated.

So close for SE PA. BUT....I think trends are what are most important here. See my last post above....isnt much to stop this from pressing the best band of snow even farther S and E.

We need the feature over New England I made note of yesterday to weaken or go away, not continue to get stronger. This flattens the boundary pressing or holding confluence South. It also lessens the chances for a clean capture / stall and is the diff between a MECS and a SECS for parts of our region. You can see the trend on the CMC I am posting which is why the NW shield collapses and erodes. This is showing on several pieces of guidance now:

Seems like a reasonable albeit perhaps slightly conservative call. We take regardless.

It will. It is clearly trending that direction.

GFS is nudging S and E. The culprit as I pointed out yesterday on the NAM (which subsequently lost) is a vort swinging SE across parts of.New England around 54 -66 hrs.

I mentioned yesterday afternoon that piece is what could keep confluence tighter and nudge everything S.

Looks like around 10-14" EtA: that doesn't factor in mixing. Snow map closer to 5-8"

Adjust the RGEM about 30 miles N and W and massive hit. As it stands now, S NJ bullseye based on surface maps. Yet another solution .