Ralph Wiggum

Tread lightly, could be delayed to day 10

I really like the day 9ish threat. Stj wave, hp to the north, pv nearby, overunning, relaxing nao phase. This weekend is threading a needle, the followup has more play in the atmosphere.

The day 9 threat look more favorable than the weekend one. Relaxing nao, southern stream overunning, sprawling hp. Im all in

Miller SOB?

More accumulating snows here albeit light over the past hour. Up to 13.5" and still snowing. 29F

March 2001...20"-30" widespread forecast just 12 hrs before event. Most spots across SE PA saw 1-2". THAT is a bust.

Yeah yeah I looked quickly at the surface and saw weakness near the GL, triple point, and a storm near Hatteras and it looked like a miller b redeveloping. Hopefully we can keep the Miller a signal and this doesn't go hybrid with later coastal development

Was referring to him creating this post early evening yesterday which was about midway

I just heard from a friend that this actually smells more of a Miller A, so perhaps that's the aroma you're catching.

Right? People should always wait until the event is completely over. Not saying anything more significant accumulates, but cancelling at the midway point sometimes isn't the best course of action.

Amazing!!!

Wrong (wrt crapping on the threat) Many here seem happy with the storm currently pulling away....I haven't been in here. Certainly not dismissing the threat, just suggesting if either of our areas get bullseyed with another Miller B with 4 days+ lead time we should be realistic and keep expectations in check knowing Miller b track history.

Careful. Unless u can get lobes of the PV or the entire PV phasing that can spell a dry and cold period. But as we saw as recently as the past few days, our chances will go up when the blocking relaxes. Again, thats assuming the PV doesn't play into our storm threats. I like the chances going forward for sure. We aren't even close to being done tracking. The warm Nina Feb outlooks certainly won't verify over the next 10 days at least.

Looks like another Miller B? Don't put yourself thru it again.

13.5" so far in Ivyland, PA. Temp dropped to 29F. Currently moderate snow.

Was mentioning in another thread, while it may have had the right idea for all the wrong reasons, the GFS for the 6 days or so prior to the storm had the mix and sleet area consistently in S PA more than any other guidance. Actually sniffed that out and preformed better than the mesos in that regard....but again, more so a function of slp being more N but if we followed Miller B trends and used the GFS as guidance, it was consistent with the mixing looks yet we all shrugged the GFS off as a messy transfer, too far N etc when in actuality at least for Southern PA it didn't do bad. Took till the end to get the higher snow totals and QPF in the LV so it failed there.

Not sure how this was a widespread bust. Maybe some localized areas? Widespread 12"+ majority of E PA N of the Turnpike. Mixing happened in SE PA as modeled (oddly the mesos failed here and the GFS the entire week was showing a sleet event for S PA....go back thru the runs). Yes, it did go farther N and W with the sleet but those areas still did very well and right in the NWS 12-18" range (the higher forecast areas the NWS had didnt mix or not for long still within NWS range of 18-24"). Only areas that hung on longer to the sleet that actually screwed them was confined to 5 miles S of the Turnpike to the DE border no? I mean, this thread is fine to vent but i don't think this is a huge bust. If you really feel this is the worst bust ever, you haven't been around long. There will be a next time. Chin up.

12.5" here...lull now. HRRR joins other guidance and says not done yet. 3-6" more here if u believe it

Euro still sniffing out next weekend threat. If anything, this is clearly favoring New England. That isn't to say we can't get something out of it but this Miller B is already looking well N and E across guidance where we would want to see it well to the South at this range. Euro op is also alone in developing slp as far South near Hatteras. We can certainly track it and watch for trends.

Snow has not stopped here in Warminster. Had another heavy batch roll thru over the past 90 mins. We are closing in on 12" now. 12k NAM has an additional 2-5" here in Bucks today. Wouldn't be shocked to see that verify. Radar has more backbuilding into the area.

12k NAM for tonight and thru tomorrow evening. Still some light stuff over parts of Eastern PA occurring during this frame. I mean, those additional totals alone are a nice winter storm for most of us that we would be tracking for days. Most models like the additional accums. We take.

Meh, another 4-6" here tonight and tomorrow per HRRR on top of the 9.75" on the ground. K, sign me up. 28F SN-

Monster sprawling hp in S Central extending into E Canada and the NE with plenty of cold air advection around the PV lobe with the 50/50 locking things in. That would definitely work....the cold and the source of cold are there. Just need the upper features to line up a little more.

Puking marshmallows here. Incredible rates attm. 9"

Those h5 maps are really close...very diff at the surface tho. Only diffs that standout the Euro has the stj sw off the SW coast which is likely helping the ridge out west a little more. Also, the euro is better in the AO where the GFS is more overspread into the EPO. 50/50 evident on both. Of course the Euro is a monster at the surface. GFS (and other ops) don't phase the streams like the Euro does and you can see the stj wave separate off the coast on that model. Euro is somewhat alone for now but it wouldn't take much adjusting on the GFS and CMC