Ralph Wiggum

We need snowfall % maps. WW is slacking.

Pretty big jump there. Eta: just guessing without seeing h5 but that shows how much of a thread the needle this one is. A phase or partial (12z) and it is an inside runner. Missed phase (18z) and it slides ots quickly.

Without hp holding with confluence in place that will probably be a thump to mix scenario at best. The cold antecedent airmass is stale at that point, so unless we get phasing or start seeing better confluence to help nose that HP over across the GL and funnel it into the region, we are dealing with a marginal airmass by that time. Of course this system also is progged to usher in arctic air behind it. So if phasing occurs and is timed properly, maybe we get a euro look from 0z and 12z yesterday. Guess that is still possible but again the look right now seems to favor a quick moving mix or thump to mix IF the ull looks on the icon and euro are to be believed.

Looking back at those 4 images I posted, could we get any more of an exact slp placement between those 2 systems? I mean, seriously. I didnt even see how close they were when I cut and pasted them.

TY so much for that link. I really enjoy reading this type of material directly from the scientist/meteorologist responsible for these classifications and studies.

96 wasn't a pure Miller A then, correct? From my reading the 'A' has more to do with the storm tracking far deep South (haven't found mention of a direct GOM connection) and emerging off the Carolina Coast without redevelopment of slp. The Miller B research on the weatherworksinc site says the defining characteristic is a surface low in the Midwest , OV, Tenn Valley that transfers/redevelops off the Mid Atl coast. 96 had the GOM interaction which meets A criteria but ALSO got into the Tenn Valley before redeveloping off the Mid Atl Coast which meets Miller B criteria. I believe contrary to several folks that 96 was in fact a hybrid. Interestingly enough, the 18z ICON has some similarities to the slp development of the 96 storm, tho not even close at h5 so no I am not comparing. Just trying to determine Miller status. It is a very interesting topic

Closer to inside the outer banks at the surface actually. Farthest S lat it gets is Montgomery, AL before headed NE towards the Tenn Valley. So no real GOM interaction as you noted. Pure Miller B it is? Matches the EPS mean in that regard which is Miller B as well. We don't get coast hugging Miller As often at all. They mostly just slide off the Carolina coast without the phase to draw them N it seems.

That looks like a Miller A, good call. Those can transfer or redevelop but im pretty certain the defining characteristic is it doesn't really enter the Midwest, OV, Tenn Valley to transfer. That storm u mentioned basically hugged the FL panhandle then jumped off the GA coast. So I would classify that as a straight Miller A and yeah, probably the last true one we've had. Rare for sure.

ICON transitioned to a hybrid miller a/b at the surface with clear characteristics of both with a definite southern draw before a move into the tenn Valley, triple point, then transfer off Carolina coast. When was the last pure Miller A? Serious question, we were discussing in another forum and nobody had a clear answer. Seems most are B or hybrid.

ICON has trended towards a Hybrid Miller A/B....has characteristics of both with slp coming out of Plains moving along the South then up into the Tennessee Valley before transferring off the Carolina Coast.

ICON tracks it West. Snow to mix. I can certainly see a scenario like this playing out...classic thump to mix or rain. Sets us up our arctic push and 50/50 for the period later next week that I am interested in. Dont see this weekend as a clean snow hit attm. Suppose it could trend tho. Busy tracking times!

Noice! Had the wrong GEFS...looks steady

Soooo a threading of the needle you say?

Spoke too soon. Heaviest snow of the day attm. New dusting in past 5 mins.

Impressive for BAM BAM. CMC is also frigid. Atmospheric chef has the first ingredient for the main course. I heard the gravy is delicious.

From your finally charged mobile device to God's ears. Bring it home!

Still snowing here in Ivyland as well. Not much additional accum. Looks like 13.5" here is the final.

I'm not seeing that at all tbh. Most guidance isn't as amped up and miss any phasing until too late...congrats E New England. Lets see what the ens do....they weren't enthusiastic at 0z

Careful what you wish for

Tread lightly, could be delayed to day 10

I really like the day 9ish threat. Stj wave, hp to the north, pv nearby, overunning, relaxing nao phase. This weekend is threading a needle, the followup has more play in the atmosphere.

The day 9 threat look more favorable than the weekend one. Relaxing nao, southern stream overunning, sprawling hp. Im all in

Miller SOB?

More accumulating snows here albeit light over the past hour. Up to 13.5" and still snowing. 29F

March 2001...20"-30" widespread forecast just 12 hrs before event. Most spots across SE PA saw 1-2". THAT is a bust.