Ralph Wiggum

NAM bumped N again. Euro is alone riding this one out it appears. Maybe its right tho, who knows. I do know the NAM is in its wheelhouse now....the Euro nasomuch

I want to add also, there are so many moving parts right now models are going to struggle hammering down specific threats inside of 5 days. I know this has been beaten to death but it is legit. As fast as they lose a good look, they have been bringing it back....and vice versa. This has been a decent winter that isn't ending anytime soon. Keep optimistic!

I thought just the opposite. Plenty of chances with the pv lurking unless you are looking for clean flush hits. Then maybe phl proper will have issues.

Rgem tho

Lots of threats and chances being thrown at us next 2 weeks. Looks like a minor 1 for 2 event(s) Thursday and Friday. Sunday looking like the VD sleet storm from 2007(?). Then early next week looks threatening. Need to cash in on at least 1 of these the next few weeks.

Was going to post this in banter, but some good model porn at LR. 967mb just SE of Cape May. We take.

You should see the JMA

Euro is sniffing something early next week. Could be glue, not sure.

12z JMA is insane from Sat PM thru Tuesday night. We living in a glacier!

12k NAM tick N again. Another 'slight' improvement. Still 36-48 hrs to adjust. Eta: both waves adjusted N wave 2 Friday misses tho just to our S but close

Euro is almost all by itself right now. Even the eps don't agree. We've seen this many times recently at this same exact range. Chances are good it comes N at 12z.

6z suite all ticked N with wave 1 but light precip. Wave 2 light precip. Sunday mix to rain.

Snow maps are meh. Given temps in the 20s and the surface maps qpf depiction, expected better than 1-3" but we take.

GFS didn't make the move this run but is colder and while it cuts precip off N shield, the snow right along the PA/MD border looks juicier.

GFS seeing some strengthening in the same region. Nothing massive but probably just enough that we can get in on the snows Thursday.

You can see why the ICON came N if you compare the SE ridge run over run. Imo even tho the icon isn't the best guidance, as a global model it is likely seeing the SER flex more than the mesos. At least on the broader scale as opposed to micro, that change might carry weight if we see other globals signal the same.

These ticks N at around 48-54 hrs out have been too predictable this year for whatever reason. Euro is alone on the island....again. If it doesnt tick N at 0z...by 12z tomorrow latest.

ICON came N:

Must be dry asf....juicy NAM manages a whopping c-2". Little refresh to the piles anyway.

Here....nice tick N on the 12k NAM:

I just saw that lol my cache is all screwed up

Have a suspicion op models start the N tick tonight. We'll see.

18z GEFS snow mean is way N and doesn't agree with the op much at all.

Don't taunt....might get a flag thrown.

It is a flat ridge, but its there. It was supposed to be raging with the Nina. But we luckily have had the -NAM state working for us to counter it. If the ridge was non-existent we would be congratulating NC/SC. But as we've seen countless times recently, there is a battle going on between the -NAO and that SER reflection. And subsequently every system has come N. I personally don't buy the squashed look on the Euro. Not suggesting every wave comes N and flush hits us....but I am anxious to see the battle that ensues in the atmosphere over the next 10 days between those features I mentioned.