Ralph Wiggum

Setting yourself up for another bust thread I see. Im j/k and I hope you're close to accurate, I would gladly take. Those numbers will be tough however with the system racing thru the region. GL

@Franklin0529 this is not tucked into DE. That is a perfect track I95 N and W. Not saying it can't continue to trend NW but I think I95 N and W is in a good spot right now.

With i95 the r/s line. Models have shifted NW yet the fall line continues to be our #1 climo metric with this/these type systems. And fyi the icon is NOT over Delaware it never touches land or even that close tbh once it is N of NC/VA border

Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning?

3k is inside the coast for a period but clearly shows the I95 r/s line. Quite a pasting!

Borrowed from the Mid Atl sub, 18z euro is a nice hit and shows why even tho I think climo says I95 r/s line there is enough guidance still suggesting that central and southern NJ is very much still in the game:

Not sure if this was noted, but Winter Storm Watches have been posted for a good chunk of the region: " Action Recommended Make preparations per the instructions Issued By Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service Affected Area Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware Description ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 5 inches possible. WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware. WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in overnight Saturday night from southwest to northeast and may fall heavy for a time into Sunday morning before winding down from west to east by the mid to late afternoon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation."

Noted....adding to the list ty Iirc, isnt that close to Thai red with addition of peanuts? I might be thinking of something different.

Asian food makes me hungry like 30 mins after eating. When the buffets used to be open I swear I could scarf 5 plates and half hour after leaving be hungry again.

For my culinary friends, made this for dinner for the wife and I. Green Curry Chicken Eggplant Snow Peas, Jasmine Rice Been experimenting recently with East Asian curries. The Green had a little more heat than the sweeter red. Chicken Biryani next week then maybe a hot yellow Curry soon. Sorry for pic quality, photog isn't my strongpoint.

OT but this just happened in my home kitchen. Green Curry Chicken Eggplant Snow Peas, Jasmine Rice

Anyone else getting that feeling this month might be one we remember? Especially N and W areas. Seems like the atmosphere just wants to produce frozen. Now we are getting short range surprises popping up. The GFS 18z was a weenie run with threat after threat. My gut says we are on the good side of the pattern during prime climo for a change. Buckle up.

I second that @MGorse and @famartin

3-4"/hr Btw, Herpderps has the crazy banding too. Not to this extreme but already 3-7" on the ground and more to come/still snowing heavily as the run ends.

Agreed with coastal areas.

I95 will be the dividing line maybe a couple miles N and W of there. Classic setup.

Thanks Gorse My post was tongue in cheek as I have been mentioning this for a couple days. I was more caught off guard by how robust/vigorous the 3k is depicting.

Dafuq is going on here?

Euro is against most other modeling and wants nothing to do with shifting the PV farther ESE. If it ismoving, it is extremely slow. Eta: Finally moves into the GL longitude by day 9/10

I remember...our most avg storm systems of the 80s decade resembled this. Usually standard i95 dividing line, wet snow low ratios. Type of system news outlets used to (and still do?) start with 1-3" then start nudging upward. Like a few of us suggested, not a massive upside. Seems with these systems a 10" lolli is generally the highest end. Guess we'll see.

CRAS is a pummeling. Came N and W

Any time you start seeing hints of the PV just to our NW start trying to break off lobes or try and interact with other waves to the South, that is a signal for potentially a larger scale storm/event for someone. Will be a fun week watching where the PV goes and how it interacts. Makes for challenging forecasting over the next 3-10 days at least. If we are ever going to get a bigger event sneak up, this is the time.

Those upper air looks the ICON is spitting out for next week are NSFW.

RGEM ftw!

It will be a quick mover. These are one of our most common setups for snow around here. Wave forms along baroclinic wave left behind from this AM's departing system. Not saying it can't overachiever but in general thru the years I've seen these trailing waves drop a solid thump with the f gen banding then usually just lightly accumulating snow behind that also zips out quickly. These systems are textbook...minor warning event. The very high end is probably a 5-10" for whoever gets under the best lift and has ratios....which will be a challenge in and along I 95. Just figuring out the snow axis still seems the challenge moving forward. Eta: the higher probability for better ratios and accums would likely favor similar areas that got hit last week in E PA. Probably will move our snow depth maps progressively farther S and E over the next 10 days btw