Ralph Wiggum

GFS on board also for Tuesday. Who's starting the thread?

All of PA below zero the morning of the 15th on the ICON.

Fair

And the Flyers smoked the Caps today! Oops, wrong sub.

NAM at range coming in colder for the Thursday event.

0z hr³ does the same...hmmm.

Here we are on Feb 7th in a Nina year and I am about 3" above my seasonal average for snow. Patience has paid off.

Yes...I have been following this one and the trends are favorable for a minor nuisance event especially PA Turnpike N.

Not sure I'm at work in blue bell. Guess I should have stuck with my 8" lollis call. Thats what I call a good bust

Euro is a hit!

CmC honking too. Going out with a bang.

12GFS absolute weenie run...wow

32F SN+ 2"

I love gradient overunning snows in Feb!! One of my faves for heavy thumps. Of course I only enjoy being on the colder side of the gradient.

Best banding definitely East over NJ. Congrats @The Iceman and others in Central NJ! Should easily see 5" lollis those parts.

Fatties falling

Gently falling light snow here. 1" and 33F

Back edge is already appearing on regional radar and banding has setup well e of where modeled. U r in a better spot for the 5" lollis. 1-3" here seem very reasonable.

Lowered totals to a general 1-3" slushfest with some 4-5" lollis in isolated areas for extreme SE PA and just on the other side of the Del River. Light snow and 35F here.

I would also feel more comfy if this was night and not happening during the day with the marginal BL.

It wouldn't be right if I didn't voice my concerns. No doubt per the mesos there will be insane f gen lifting and banding of precip in far SE PA and across the river into parts of NJ. However, as is evident on the mesos, BL temps are an issue going into this. Some areas are going to start as sleet or even plain rain (and likely struggle for a bit to flip). Now, most guidance suggests under the heavier banding that temps mix down to the BL and flip to snow quickly. My concern is what happens alongside the heavier banding? We usually see subsidence and lighter rates. That is a concern. Whatever spots fall under subsidence and don't get into the heavier banding are going to struggle to accumulate. I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated spots only seeing a slushy inch or so where 10 miles away they have 5"+ of paste. Going to be interesting to watch unfold, but I think those concerns are legit going in. Someone is going to get screwed while up the road the get a golden shovel. Keep your expectations low for this one and hope for the best lift to occur over your house.

6z HerpesDerpster

Looks like we have to watch Tuesday Feb 9th for a light threat. BL temps marginal. Most guidance showing precip centered over LV. Then there is a SECS potential brewing for Thursday. I think the Wentzadelphia system is still there next weekend but the look has degraded quite a bit in recent runs. Active tracking nonetheless.

RGEM ticked NW and EPS looks better for SE PA. 3-6" is looking good. Maybe some lollis of 8" in the best banding just to the NW of I95.