Ralph Wiggum

NAM 10:1 ratios likely overdone but waiting on rest of 12z. Have a suspicion this will be a 3-6" event up here when all is said and done. Has that 'normal' winter weather event look for a change with no bells and whistles etc

NAM coming in more amped, stronger SS wave.

Euro came NW at 6z. The EPS has an i95 bullseye. 12z Euro the biggest model run since (fill in the blank)

Back to rain now with the lighter precip. Appears we will end with .6" new snow.

Moderate snow. .5" new accumulation of snow on snow. No accum on roads.

3k is sick. Nw, amped, and aggressive banding. I am starting to see a better looking NS vort and some more interaction with both NS and SS vorts with each passing run. This was really close to being a properly timed phasing SECS+.....probably a quick mover regardless but could still drop some thumpage for a while in parts of this region.

Brrrr Aside from these lows night of the 13th, GFS doesn't get out of the low single digits in SE PA on Valentine's Day. Two straight nights solidly below zero for majority of the state of PA. We know it wont verify this cold but damn.

Sign me up! I didnt expect guidance to grab this one and run with it tbh. Went from a thread the needle to a hold my beer event. Im still skeptical given the BL but if rates are to be believed on the NAM (I cant believe I would even suggest such a thing) then this one might actually work.

The Great Wentzadelphia Saint Valentine's Day 2021 Blizzard of 96 Redux. Now THAT'S a name!

Euro took a healthier system a jump N.

CRAS also came NW fwiw...probably not much

Euro

NAVGEM is a hit. Nice jump NW.

GEFS went a hair more progressive and clustering is tightening to just inside the outer banks with not as many NW leaners as 6z. Precip on NW edge tightened to the SE.

Trend was a solid bump N....

Thanks Ant.

I'm not so sure about that. MJO hasn't been a key driver this year like the last 2. The -NAM has been the key persistent driver with HL blocking being very stable and has bucked most Nina looks thus far not allowing the SE ridge to establish for extended periods. I mean, if the HL ridging is ever going to link up with the SE ridge and establish a mid/full lat persistent feature, mid Feb and onward would be the time. However, flopping of guidance tells me the 2nd SWE from mid Jan is beginning to show up at the trop with more HL blocking and guidance is struggling with that. Ironically we have just had our 3rd SWE of the season so we may enter another favorable period late month. For now, I'm siding with the seasonal trend and saying no major PV blasts, seasonal cold, and transient SE ridge with persistent HL blocking which would work for us as we r in prime climo. Im certainly not punting because of the MJO forecast.

I stick by my original thoughts that for SE PA (most of this subforum) we are trying to thread a needle. It can happen, I'm not saying it can't. Just will be tough. Antecedent airmass is stale. If streams stay separate but the sw is strong and is north enough to spread precip, frozen will be confined N and W. A phase (which doesn't look likely until past our lat) would pump ridging out ahead in an already marginal airmass. And if the sw if flat and weak it either slides south or is a light event. Curiously, the ens members do have some better solution but they favor N and W. If we all want to cash in we want a medium strength sw that slides just under the region for a lightish event. Today's runs will be interesting.

Why do the Euro/EPS/CMC/GEPS want nothing to do with this? Para GFS was a couple NW ticks away from a SECS/MECS. Interesting.

Excited for this week. Super Bowl SECS then the Great Valentine's Day Wentzadelphia 96 Blizzard Redux!! Buckle up!

N tick trend working here for you guys.

Quick mover. Just a SECS. Pass.

Hour 72 of snow here. Out in Blue Bell at work. Steadiest snow of the day...light fresh coating. 31F. Impressive system.

But 6z bro Yeah, I'm not seeing this one being a thing either attm

We need snowfall % maps. WW is slacking.