Ralph Wiggum

Under 5 days now and another storm threat. Guidance moving towards more of a coastal system for this period that travels from the GOM into the Tenn/Ohio Valley area then redevlops off the Mid Atl Coast. Miller A/B hybrid. NAO and AO are moving into neutral and is a classic Archambault storm. Mixed signals on precip type for now but some form of frozen is clearly looking likely. Discuss here.

33" on the nose here in Ivyland.

I'm going to reiterate what I said yesterday. I am more concerned that if we fail Tuesday it will be due to suppression or the system being squashed under the PV than rain and a cutter. Actually wouldn't mind a lightish event while the Mid Atlantic gets hammered. They are running out of time and beyond due.

GEPS and GEFS both have a 50/50 signal in place on their means from Day 9 til the end of their runs. Thats pretty good agreement on a smoothed means from 2 pieces of guidance at range.

I wonder if the landscape contractor was instructed to do this specifically or if he is just a die-hard weenie. Maybe it's @KamuSnow himself? Hmmm

Where has Heisy been? This was/is his storm. Maybe he knows something we don't? Or maybe he has tracking fatigue?

Its cool to see the HL pattern that was in place back in late Oct/early Nov popping up again on the ens means as we get later into winter. When I posted my winter thoughts back then I stated a huge key to the success of this winter is how the Scandinavian ridging feeds the NAO ridge or if it remains over in Scandinavia with no effect. It was evident at that time we had a higher chance than normal at getting sustained HL blocking in the AO/NAO regions as Scandinavia is a normalized area that tends to feed the NAO as a retogression. Just cool to see how firm that ridging remained as a background state, how it played out, and how we are seeing it showing up again late season. March could be a roller coaster ride this year with at least one chance for a March winter storm, if not more. What a season.

Looks like after our Heather A event Tuesday the pattern reloads with a cutter late week (that one is probably real with the HL blocking reloading) then the next big longwave threat with the pattern back in place is being signaled Feb 24-28. But let's get thru Sat-Sun then Tues first. Who knows, maybe the reload is faster or even just a mirage/head fake.

The old "We Are Due" index was high. That index in DC region is off the charts. When they do finally get it, the results will be worth the wait.

I will get pics next time I swing thru there haha

2.2" final measurement in Ivyland

Looks like 2" will be the final snowfall tally here. 27F

Yes sir. Never a doubt. Once I saw the GGEM squash the entire event I knew the cutter was off the table and the seasonal trend was still alive.

I agree. The key in that post I made...weaker primary faster redevelopment. Matches seasonal trend with ICON sniffing it early and others following.

ICON which has been pretty decent lately is certainly threatening for Tuesday. Low 20s and raining. Coastal taking shape earlier with weaker primary. Nice airmass just North to be tapped. I guess the Euro shot the bed on this threat or people just kicked the old fallen King to the curb?

Might be DT vs Euro/Ukie...be careful.

Speaking of snow mounds, the most epic Kamu snowpile exists in the Modell's/Shoprite lot on Street Rd in Warminster. Easily 15 feet high and 25 feet long. It looks like they took most of the snow in that huge lot and just piled into one huge mountain. That will be there til May easily.

I had two bunnies frolicking in the gentle falling snow here. Think I saw a field mouse as well tonight.

UKMET is a big hit on Tuesday. Cache cleared, that is legit.

Wrong run cache sucks

I told you not to bet against the GFS cutter trending to colder coastal tendency this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see the PV squash the entire thing under us and be mostly snow by gametime, but we'll see. The PV is moving into prime location in SE Canada. This was the system you have been eyeing for a week. Dont fold on it now dude.

GFS has shown cutters at this range since early Dec only to have the systems flatter and under us as lead times lessen. I expect pretty much the same this week. Lots of mixing probably that hangs on longer than forecast. Im not seeing any torch etc.

Same

is the other forum free or a pay site? May have to check it out.

Joking sir