Ralph Wiggum

I think all the super crazy totals from the last 24 hrs has many assuming this is the one. Thats where the letdown can often happen. I know I will be disappointed if I end up with the SREF 6.5" but at the end of the day, if this were progged to be a 2-4" event that would be a major win...in a Niña. Perhaps that's the way this needs to be viewed....as a nuisance storm and reap the rewards of anything more than minor totals. Meh, easier said than done after having 14-22" totals dangled in front of you all day.

Yep, anything can still happen. Nobody is in the clear yet and inevitably somebody is going to get screwed. Hoping for the best for this sub, braced for the worst.

Well boys, 3rd and goal at the 4.....47 seconds to play. Game tied at 24. Brady looking on from the bench hoping the defense holds here. Teams set to go at the line of scrimmage. And here we go....its a direct snap to the running back....he scurried to the right and finds an open receiver....NO its the qb in the end zone. The Philly Special....TOUCHDOWN!!!! Unbelievable! Extra point snap, the kick is up...OH MY, no good its off the upright. Nothing ever easy in this hometown but we have the lead 30-24 with 30 seconds to play. And Brady takes the field. This proves to be one heck of an exciting finish folks. Can we hold the lead?? Buckle your seatbelts!!

Just 'cause...the HDRPS:

So with you thinking there will be a classic miller b late NE adjustment.....and the fact the bullseye on the rgem is just to our southwest.....does that mean....???

I've seen a handfull of these forecasted stallers never stall and just keep moving NE. Lets hope the capture and stall isn't a mirage. Monday AM is going to be grueling for many of us. Might need some sedatives....or a horse tranquilizer. Not sure.

The low barely moves. I mean maybe a mile or 2 in 12 hrs

12z takeaway briefly....at work. Capture looks likely. Stall likely. Longer duration sits at our BM. HECS potential increasing quickly

Slower evolution. Big end result.

ICON perfect track looks like a SE PA crusher

3k f gen banding gonna be absurd as it continues to get in closer range

About 14" here and still snowing at 78hrs.

Still snowing mid morning Tuesday on 12k NAM

If u r taking it verbatim, sure. But the fact as the outlier it bucked the trend and stopped leading the way was huge. Big picture.

Agreed. But we stopped getting warmer and nudged colder. SE PA around i95 will mix for a period but not be primarily a mix is my feel.

Huge win on NAM. Trend halted!

Good vibes this run. Cmon NAM just buck the damn trend

Well, this is a much different setup than that storm AND we are in prime climo with better modeling, so there's that. Still think the truth lies in between the 0z GFS and 6z Euro.

Well, I will say this. We need the NAM at 12z to halt. No questions asked. As we go thru more runs, the closer we r getting into the NAMs wheelhouse. Trash the model all you want, it has sniffed out last second trends before more than just a handful of times. 12z will be telling. If it continues the late capture and shift N, we are going to have to start putting weight into the potential solution. The most important NAM run since the Thomas Jefferson Storm of 1772

It isnt alone. More concerning are many eps members hitting on a line from Binghamton NY over to Bos. That is quite a jump N. If this capture doesn't happen at just the right time we are talking 4-7" in parts of SE PA vs 1-3'

You know how over the years models will spit out some ridiculous storm and we joke "give me that under 60 hours and we're partying"? Many in SE PA are bullseyed including myself with under 3hrs from the onset and I'm not comfortable.....at all. This has a very high bust potential for SE PA thay could go either way and we are relying on a capture at just the right latitude to get it done for us. That is no small task. The NAM and ICON continual shifts have me on edge. Glad I am working later today. Hoping for the best, braced for a disaster. I still have PTSD from March 2001.

Both are extreme solutions on either side. Truth is likely in the middle between the GFS and Euro which is usually the best way to go here. That is still 10-18" and an awesome event. Im sure there will be lollies of 24" or higher but the CMC family is the extreme outlier and likely overdone. Current thinking 7-14" for my area conservatively...mixing, late capture, or dryslotting allows for the lower end.

Just saw the 6z NAM. Warm punch, failure to capture early enough. Looks like a Binghamton NY-Boston type storm. We definitely don't want that. Hoping it is an extreme outlier but have tbh....it wouldn't be the first time the NAM sniffed out something to rain on the parade with a big storm coming. Didnt like that it has trended for 3 straight runs now too without slowing down. Still a good storm here but less than 10" while everything else under the sun is 12"+. I want to toss it but in the back of my head are the handful of times prior to big events where the NAM stood alone, we shrugged it off, and it ended up having the right idea. Of course we can't just have 100% consensus for once lol.

6z RGEM is even better for SE PA than 0Z, if that is even freaking possible. 2-3' .... im going back to sleep for a few hours now lol