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BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 ...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 112.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning on the west coast of Baja California northward to Cabo San Quintin and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning north of Loreto on the east coast of Baja California and north of Guaymas in mainland Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward from the Orange/Los Angeles County Line to Point Mugu. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas * Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island

can definitely hear the distant thuinder... bright flashes off to my SE

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1105 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Charles County in southern Maryland... Southeastern Stafford County in northern Virginia... Central King George County in central Virginia... East central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia... * Until 1130 PM EDT. * At 1105 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fairview Beach, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... King George, Dahlgren, Fairview Beach, Potomac Creek, Nanjemoy Creek, Popes Creek, Aquia Creek, Port Tobacco River, Passapatanzy, Stones Corner, Weedonville, Ironsides, Bel Alton, Pisgah, White Oak, Sealston, Faulkner, Berthaville, Dogue, and Marbury.

Maybe a few rumbles of thunder tonight?

Can't say I've ever seen a NHC 5 day map into W Nevada

Don't see the word frost very often in an AFD in August - from this morning AFD from LWX: By Friday the front will have pushed through, which will usher in cooler, but most noticeably, drier air into the region. Highs on Friday will reach the mid 80s, but dew points will be well down into the low to mid 50s. With high pressure building overhead Friday night and such a dry air mass in place, wouldn`t be shocked to see some of our high elevation valleys down into the low to mid 40s, with even the Shenandoah Valley perhaps dipping into the low 50s. No frost concerns of course at this point, but could be a brisk night for sure.

1630z SPC OTLK still has the 5 percent tor probs with no change

1300z SPC OTLK seems to be tossing the HRRR and RAP... and @Kmlwx describes tonight pretty well too Mid-Atlantic to TN/KY... Several episodes of strong-severe thunderstorms are possible across this corridor, with enough spatial overlap between them to warrant maintaining a continuous area of severe probabilities similar to those outlined in the previous outlook. A broad area of ongoing precip with embedded thunderstorms -- initially over portions of KY/TN -- largely should remain non-severe while shifting eastward into the central Appalachians today. However, increasing deep-layer flow and favorable low-level moisture will precede the associated UVV plume, along with muted diurnal heating of a moist airmass with weak CINH from parts of WV across the nearby Blue Ridge and Piedmont of VA, eastward toward Chesapeake Bay and over the Delmarva Peninsula. This may support strong-severe gusts and hail with thunderstorms forming during the afternoon over higher terrain and shifting eastward to northeastward toward the coast. Of note: progs with RAP basis -- including HRRR -- appear to be mixing and drying the boundary layer excessively over the Piedmont and coastal plain, leading to potential underproduction and/or muting of convection. After several hours of warm advection and increasing surface heating behind the morning activity, the best organized overall severe threat should develop this afternoon from parts of middle/eastern TN to southern OH/WV, and shift eastward over the adjoining Appalachians. MLCAPE should range from around 2000-3000 J/kg across middle/eastern TN -- where strongest heating/recovery is probable but deep flow/shear somewhat weaker -- to around 500-1000 J/kg near the Ohio River and northern WV. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt should be common over eastern KY and WV, with modest 0-1-km SRH but around 150-250 J/kg effective SRH. This suggests an eastward-moving corridor of convection containing blend of supercells, multicell clusters and quasi-linear segments with sporadic bow/LEWP features will be possible, with accompanying threat for damaging to severe gusts, isolated hail, and at least marginal/conditional tornado potential. The northern part of this convective plume may persist overnight into an airmass east of the mountains -- across parts of the Piedmont and coastal plain of the Mid-Atlantic -- supportively recovered via theta-e advection from any earlier activity not far to the south and east. The parameter space should be favorable for severe well after dark, with 40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes, locally enlarged hodographs with 200-300 J/kg effective SRH, and around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Convective coverage is uncertain, but all hazards will be possible.

Looks like upper 90s to 100 degrees returns next week per morning AFD from LWX For the end of the week into next weekend, the pattern turns hotter and dry. A very strong 600 dm upper-level ridge takes shape over the Midwest and Great Lakes regions during this time. It actually appears as though the air mass will be much drier with this bout of heat with the Bermuda High not in place this go around as a cold front pushes through on Friday. Friday and Saturday will be closer to climo, with upper 80s to low 90s expected. However, by Sunday into early next week, expect temperatures to climb into the upper 90s.

5 percent tor remains on new Day 1

Severe Thunderstorm Warning MDC001-023-WVC023-057-130300- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0281.230813T0229Z-230813T0300Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1029 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Allegany County in western Maryland... Central Garrett County in western Maryland... Northern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 1100 PM EDT. * At 1029 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Piedmont, or near Westernport, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Keyser, Westernport, Bittinger, Lonaconing, Piedmont, Deer Park, Elk Garden, Kitzmiller, Barton, Franklin, Luke, Jennings, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, McHenry, Big Run State Park, McComas Beach, Merrill, New Germany, and Dogwood Flats. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Mesoscale Discussion 1978 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0912 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Areas affected...northern WV...western MD and southern PA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 639... Valid 130212Z - 130345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 639 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms should continue for a few more hours with a risk for damaging gusts and isolated hail. DISCUSSION...Across WW639, several clusters of strong to severe storms are expected to persist for a few more hours tonight. The environment remains broadly favorable for severe weather as storms track to the southeast across far southern PA, northern WV and western MD. Storms have taken on a general linear mode, suggesting damaging gusts are the primary risk for the remainder of tonight. However, isolated hail is also possible, but more uncertain given the trend away from supercell structures over the last couple of hours. Given recent HRRR and radar trends, the highest confidence in severe potential is expected over northern WV and the MD Panhandle for the next couple of hours. ..Lyons.. 08/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1978.html

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1004 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 MDC023-130230- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0280.000000T0000Z-230813T0230Z/ Garrett MD- 1004 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR GARRETT COUNTY... At 1004 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Friendsville, or 9 miles west of Bittinger, moving southeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Bittinger, Grantsville, Loch Lynn Heights, Friendsville, Deer Park, Accident, Merrill, Keysers Ridge, Jennings, Mineral Spring, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, McHenry, Selbysport, Big Run State Park, New Germany, Piney Grove, and McComas Beach. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3972 7893 3948 7907 3948 7910 3943 7911 3943 7913 3941 7914 3942 7916 3939 7916 3939 7919 3936 7922 3936 7925 3934 7926 3931 7928 3945 7948 3972 7948 TIME...MOT...LOC 0204Z 295DEG 37KT 3965 7939 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH $$

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 949 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Garrett County in western Maryland... * Until 1030 PM EDT. * At 949 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Farmington, or 15 miles southeast of Uniontown, moving southeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Bittinger, Grantsville, Loch Lynn Heights, Friendsville, Deer Park, Accident, Merrill, Keysers Ridge, Jennings, Mineral Spring, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, McHenry, Selbysport, Big Run State Park, New Germany, Piney Grove, and McComas Beach. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. PBZ: Great to hear. && LAT...LON 3972 7893 3948 7907 3948 7910 3943 7911 3943 7913 3941 7914 3942 7916 3939 7916 3939 7919 3936 7922 3936 7925 3934 7926 3931 7928 3945 7948 3972 7948 TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 295DEG 37KT 3971 7955 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

925pm AFD from LWX about tonight .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... The Storms Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for western and portions of central Maryland and much of eastern West Virginia, including the Eastern Panhandle with exception to Jefferson County, until 2am tonight. A broad area of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms are moving northwest to southeast across southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. The embedded severe thunderstorms have been capable of producing tornadoes in our neighboring CWA offices. Otherwise, heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, damaging winds and large hail are all possible or will be common with this intense thunderstorm activity. Shortly before 10pm, Garrett County could be the first zone to get intense storms. These storms have a lot of lightning and are capable of wrapping up into tornadoes based on radar indication. Be cautious about late evening activities outdoors. Additional zones to the east and south will likely be affected through midnight to 1am. Some decrease in thunderstorm intensity and coverage is possible and could occur shortly after midnight along and just east of the mountains, but just be aware that the Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 2am tonight. Beyond 2am, there is some uncertainty as to where and how much of this convection could persist and remain potent into the overnight hours. Therefore, we are glossily monitoring the activity in case additional watches or warnings may be needed into the overnight. Model guidance seems to indicate that the trend will be decreasing around and beyond 2am. We are cautiously optimistic on this due to the CAPE and wind shear available at such a late evening hour. Once convection wains some or most, temperatures will drop back into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

SLGT risk nudged southward into N VA to include BR and to the NW on 01z SPC OTLK

That's a good amount of TWs showing up right now entering SW PA and W WV

000 WWUS61 KLWX 130009 WCNLWX WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 639 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 809 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2023 MDC001-023-043-WVC003-023-027-031-057-065-130600- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.A.0639.230813T0009Z-230813T0600Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND WASHINGTON IN WESTERN MARYLAND ALLEGANY GARRETT IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 6 COUNTIES IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA GRANT HAMPSHIRE HARDY MINERAL IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA BERKELEY MORGAN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CUMBERLAND, FORT ASHBY, FROSTBURG, GRANTSVILLE, HAGERSTOWN, KEYSER, MARTINSBURG, MOOREFIELD, MOUNTAIN LAKE PARK, OAKLAND, PAW PAW, PETERSBURG, AND ROMNEY.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 2am coming for NW portion of the LWX CWA

For those out in W MD and the NW portion of the LWX CWA https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1975.html Mesoscale Discussion 1975 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern OH...northern WV...southwestern PA and western MD. Concerning...Tornado Watch 634... Valid 122331Z - 130100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 634 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing severe storms in the southern half of WW634 will likely persist beyond the 01z expiration. A new watch will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...As of 2330 UTC, several supercells were ongoing across parts of far eastern OH, and western PA. These storms have maintained intensity and should continue to do so after the 01z expiration of WW634. 40-50 kt of effective shear and 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will favor organized storms including supercells and short line segments. Damaging wind gusts and hail appear likely with the strongest storms into this evening. Veered low-level flow in the wake of the earlier rounds of storms suggests the tornado threat is not overly high. However, a brief tornado will remain possible given the supercell mode and 15-20 kt of 0-1km shear. The severe threat will likely extend beyond the 01z expiration of WW634. A new watch will likely replace southern parts of the watch to cover the severe risk into early tonight. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

Kinda neat

18z NAM back with some really impressive soundings for the region late Monday evening into the overnight....don't remember seeing STP of 7 to 8 with large curved hodographs and MLCAPE over 2K

Sounds like an interesting evening into overnight coming? NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest satellite imagery shows a CU field developing beneath a mid-level stratus deck. Most of the cu south of Mason-Dixon has been more shallow compared to the cu north into central PA. Overall thinking through this afternoon is any storms that do develop should be pretty isolated in nature and not last long for any given location. Focus then turns to this evening. There are a few main periods of interest: 1) The northern periphery of the decaying MCS over West Virginia is progged to move over the forecast area early this evening (20-23Z). This will need to be monitored as it could lead to the development of a rogue thunderstorm, which could be supercellular given soundings somewhere across central or northern VA. 2) The approaching frontal boundary from the northwest. While the better forcing is indeed to the north, guidance continues to bring convection into western Maryland and the eastern WV Panhandle between 22-06Z. This area has the greatest potential to see SVR wx as indicated by the slight risk from SPC. Greatest threat appears to be wind, especially if an MCS forms upstream. 3) A small jetlet (25-35 kts) is forecast to develop near the US-29/I-95 corridor this evening (00-06Z). There is also some backed flow near a pressure trough at the sfc. Some guidance has redevelopment off the aforementioned threat from above near the nose of the jet. This makes sense if the abundant CAPE over the Bay is advected onshore. Otherwise, summer heat will continue today with high temperatures in the low 90s, accompanied by a notable increase in humidity. The addition of humidity will fuel heat indices into the mid 90s, particularly east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins.

Morning AFD from LWX on the Monday evening into Monday night severe threat Monday presents yet another chance for some severe thunderstorms, particularly late Monday into Monday night. A potent low pressure system will scoot by well to our north across the Great Lakes region. This will be accompanied by positively tilted and relatively deep upper trough (for August). As this approaches from the west, expect shower and thunderstorms to develop late Monday into Monday night. Could see some development ahead of the primary system as well along the lee trough due to diurnal heating as well. As usual, these could bring some isolated damaging wind gusts. But the main threat comes with the Monday night round. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the primary concerns with these storms. Additionally, flooding can`t be ruled out, especially if the front manages to stall near the area. Do think the deep southerlies should push the warm front north of the area rather quickly, but still, given 2+ inch PWATs and a lingering boundary, there exists at least an isolated flooding threat Monday night.