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Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A ragged eye is becoming apparent in visible satellite imagery and has also been observed in recent radar data from Cancun and western Cuba. Based on the improved structure, the initial intensity is set at 75 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. This is also supported by the earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, which measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 81 kt. Helene has turned northward (355/9 kt) and is expected to accelerate toward the north or north-northeast during the next 24-36 hours as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and crosses the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, the system is forecast to interact with a deep-layer trough to the west and turn northwestward with a decrease in speed over the Tennessee Valley. The environment appears primed for significant strengthening while Helene moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track more or less runs along the axis of the Loop Current during the next 24 hours, where ocean temperatures are about 30 degrees Celsius. In addition, Helene will be moving through an environment of low vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Some of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at 24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes landfall Thursday evening. Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor has been indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. 3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible. 4. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening where Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible this evening within the Hurricane Watch area. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z 36.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/0600Z 37.1N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z 36.8N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...HELENE STRENGTHENING... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 86.6W ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch east of Mexico Beach to Indian Pass has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch north of South Santee River to Little River Inlet has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet * Lake Okeechobee * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

06z GFS 961mb into FL Panhandle (near Panama City) at 114

TVS signature near Westminster on Radarscope

Good call with late night storms BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 137 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... West central Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 215 AM EDT. * At 137 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Manchester to near Westminster to near Taneytown, moving south at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Westminster, Eldersburg, Reisterstown, Taneytown, Hampstead, Manchester, Oakland, Gamber, New Windsor, Union Bridge, Libertytown, Finksburg, Carrollton, Upperco, Winfield, Louisville, Linwood, Uniontown, Keysville, and Unionville.

Looks like @EastCoast NPZ is in for more rain next hour

12z GFS looks like it's going into W FL Panhandle at 162... but instead turned NW into Biloxi at 192

12z CMC sure is taking its sweet time in the W GOM from Day 5 on... finally makes landfall in W LA day 9

Last call for severe tomorrow? MRGL risk up west of the Blue Ridge from SPC for Day 2 Morning AFD from LWX SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... This is my seventh night shift, and I feel like this amplified upper level pattern has changed this weekend`s forecast a little bit each day. For Saturday, the low remains off the coast and high pressure remains to the north. However, now there appears to be a bit more defined low and frontal pattern that approaches from the Great Lakes combined with a shortwave in northwest flow aloft. The warm sector will feature highs in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower to mid 60s. This will aid in developing some instability, so showers and thunderstorms should develop with the approaching forcing. Most models suggest decent coverage (40-60 percent) starting midday west of the Blue Ridge and then spreading east during the afternoon and evening. While instability will be somewhat modest, shear of 30-40 kt is forecast by some guidance. This could result in some organized storms that could produce hail and localized wind damage. Right now the greatest chance for severe weather appears to be west of I-95, where storms are most likely during peak heating (along with slightly higher instability). While storms should weaken some as they push east, there does appear to be enough forcing for showers and isolated storms to last well into the night.

Or the 18z GFS goofy solution of a strong TS into W FL near Tampa and then right up Eastern Seaboard into New England

At 993mb... so probably just a TS

Then rakes the SE coastline from JAX to HSE

12z CMC is into W LA. 12z GFS is only 500 miles NE of where it was at 06z at 225/228. Headed into W FL north of Tampa. Comes off E FL coast near JAX at 240. Stays far enough offshore, but SE coastline from FL to NC gets raked

DFA way too late https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/09/orioles-designate-craig-kimbrel-for-assignment.html

True, but I think this is the first time we have seen this type of solution. I believe we are getting towards a "storm will be happening"... the question is strength and track.

Not sure I buy the 36 hour cutoff idea on the GFS as it sits off the GA/FL coast before finally deciding to skedaddle NE and out to sea

12z CMC is a nice hit on the 27th into the 28th Though 12z CMC is driving 80kt 850mb winds across the region at 222 with low 980s SLP in WV

I'll take the 06z GFS day 8-10... 50 to 70kt 850mb wind speed for 12 hours with heavy rain... probably tornado threat since we are on the eastern side... and SLP in the 985-990mb range

00z CMC at the end of its run sure would be interesting up here. 00z GFS looked interesting too even though it went up the eastern seaboard and stayed to our east

Huh? It does, nearly 3" worth

12z Euro is a big hit rain wise... 2-3" up to the i66 corridor... 4-7" in the in the southern and SW portions of the LWX CWA. Showers continue through Friday

12z CMC is a pretty big hit... 2-6". 12z GFS is decent... but less QPF. 12z ICON is nice for the drought stricken region of the SW portion of the LWX CWA - 3-5" down there, 1-3" elsewhere

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine, located inland over Arkansas. 1. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form this weekend along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression or storm could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Reinhart

Pretty decent hits on the 00z CMC, NAM, and GFS. 00z ICON I think would be the worst hit of the 00z suite ETA - 00z Euro agrees

00z GFS would bring some fun to the region next Tuesday into early Wednesday