yoda

This looks fun

00z HRRR has some morning activity between 09z and 11z coming up from the south into DC metro... nothing severe... but might make for quite a soupy airmass in the morning as the sun appears... waiting for the rest of the run to see what happens in the afternoon around here ETA: Nothing really through 23z so far... kinda surprised tbh

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 720 PM CDT Thu May 28 2020 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Moultrie County in central Illinois... * Until 745 PM CDT. * At 717 PM CDT, a confirmed landspout tornado was located south of Dalton City, or about 3 miles northwest of Bethany, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Very weak or landspout tornadoes. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed landspout tornado. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * The tornado will be near... Bethany around 720 PM CDT. Sullivan and Lovington around 735 PM CDT.

This afternoons LWX severe threat disco for tomorrow... mentions cap for i95 corridor till evening... also mentions supercells possible

For Friday, day 2 morning SPC OTLK

MRGL risk for Day 1... 2% TOR and 5% wind... for i95 corridor and west TOR risk is from N VA into C PA on day 1 OTLK No real disco for our area though besides few short sentences lol SLGT for day 2 for most of LWX CWA... 2% TOR and 15% wind... potential for greater tornado risk stated in disco on day 2 btw... all depends on low level flow and surface wind direction

18/8/4

SLGT risk for extreme Eastern IA into N IL including Chicago on new day 1... 15% hail and 5% tor

For those that want to look at the 5/31/2008 event - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080531 ETA -- 120 hours would be the weekend, yes? Saturday or Sunday? And could you link me to the CIPS severe again? I lost my link

If you live in Binghamton... article says not in Western New York. Perhaps later maybe... nice to see snow in Buffalo today though

LWX afternoon AFD seems to be suggesting that the front didnt get as far south as they thought it would... so places up by DC may be in the game this evening for a severe storm

00z NAM and 3km NAM sim radar look interesting around 03z/04z MON... I guess some sort of an MCS? Both 00z WRF-ARW and 00z WRF-ARW2 keep majority of storms down by EZF 00z WRF-NMM looks more like the NAM twins but is an hour or 2 faster 00z HRDRPS looks fun DC south

18z NAM soundings at KIAD for 00z MON and 03z MON looked pretty good to me... decent SBCAPE and shear... would suggest that the WF or west to east front is somewhere in C MD Sim radar didnt look too bad on either of the 18z NAMs or RGEM... 18z long range HRRR did suggest though that the front is in N VA as it has best storms just south of me toward EZF

00z 12km NAM looks decent... has what looks to be a complex of storms (MCS?) Roll through the DC metro region around 03z MON 00z 3km NAM NEST looks intriguing from 00z to 04z MON... looks like a sup comes rumbling down i66 corridor from 02z to 04z

Ah, ping pong ball hail to maybe golf ball then... guess our ML Lapse rates are good enough?

I think it will depend on where the front (warm front?) sets up shop... could maybe be an isolated tornado if it rides the west to east front? And big hailers are what to you? The usual quarter to half dollar size around here or bigger?

5% tor in IL/SE IA/NE MO in new day 2

LWX in their evening AFD update now mentions a risk for a few thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon... so I guess they are leaning toward HRRR?

Maybe a lil something? Day 2 morning OTLK from SPC

https://mobile.twitter.com/Cyclonebiskit/status/1250882075999080448

Confirmed EF1 tornado in Carroll county on Monday https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202004152000-KLWX-NOUS41-PNSLWX&fbclid=IwAR1v0GiDT6Plc6TB1CFU8BtJI8JlGNWufJewk9olrBhScRSUFTQ2zCCov7U

Storm warned in NE Randolph county in WV updated as of 11am for 80mph winds still

Will likely effect EZF region in an hour BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Wakefield VA 655 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Louisa County in central Virginia... Southeastern Prince Edward County in central Virginia... Northwestern Nottoway County in south central Virginia... Goochland County in central Virginia... Northwestern Hanover County in central Virginia... Northwestern Amelia County in central Virginia... Powhatan County in central Virginia... * Until 745 AM EDT. * At 655 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles north of Hadensville to Trenholm to near Hampden Sydney College, moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines. * Severe thunderstorms will be near, Louisa, Mineral and Trenholm around 700 AM EDT. Goochland and Bumpass around 705 AM EDT. Oilville, Jetersville and Gum Spring around 710 AM EDT. Amelia Courthouse, Morven and Tobaccoville around 715 AM EDT. Montpelier, Chula and Ballsville around 720 AM EDT. Powhatan and Macon around 725 AM EDT. Sabot around 735 AM EDT. Tuckahoe and Manakin around 740 AM EDT

True... LWX AFD said between 9am and 3pm for our severe threat

60/30 tor probs