yoda
-
Posts
63,872 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by yoda
-
Its just model runs, but none of the 00z runs tonight (EURO/GFS and yes, even the GGEM) show any tropical disturbances or development anywhere besides Josephine disappearing in a few days and maybe Kyle going out to sea in the North Atlantic. Pacific side of things there is some development... and both the Euro and the GFS tonight both show an intense tropical system out there. Seems we may be waiting more towards the first week of September for tropical development out in the CV region. Of course, this could change on the next run of the models... but so far, the Atlantic is quiet. Could it be a ticking time bomb waiting to explode once a strong wave comes off the coast of Africa? Yes, most likely... but models see nothing... for now I'm not trying to downplay the risks or the signs or call bust... far from it. Just calling it as I see it on the models right now. Seems we may have to wait just a lil bit longer for the Atlantic side of the Tropics to rear its ugly head again
-
Watch this become Kyle just because Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 1. A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian Maritime provinces over the next several days. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days while it moves over warm sea surface temperatures of the Gulf Stream. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Roberts
-
I concur... I'm just saying so far there really hasn't been anything of major consequence from this hurricane season besides Isaiah.
-
But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all. Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO Josephine won't amount to much either... she will likely be gone in 4-5 days
-
Sounds like Josephine is in the way... but I'm guessing it won't last long
-
Looks like next chance for severe might by the Sunday-Monday time frame... LWX mentions potential briefly in their long term disco this evening
-
There was a confirmed TOG near Lisbon per radar in updated SWS from KLOT
-
00z EURO shows nothing in the tropical department either tonight except for a small SLP north of the islands (Leeward) at 240
-
00z GFS tonight shows no hurricanes at all during its entire run... there is a tropical disturbance late in the run but it mills around the Yucatan peninsula and never really develops into much of anything due to land interaction... though it tries to develop as the run ends
-
Day 2 MRGL risk (Thursday) for a few damaging wind gusts possible
-
And 94L is gone pretty much Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located inland over southeastern North Carolina. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have mostly dissipated near a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form over the next day or so, abundant dry air surrounding the system is likely to limit significant development. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 10 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today, stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda tonight, and then drift southwestward on Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Berg
-
NHC disagreed on the 2AM TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Isaias, located just offshore of east-central Florida. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of disturbed weather located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands does not have a surface circulation, and the associated shower activity is not well organized. However, environmental conditions could allow for some slow development of this system during the next several days, with a tropical depression possibly forming later this week. This system is forecast to move northwestward at about 15 mph over the southwestern Atlantic today and on Tuesday and then stall several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda by the middle to latter part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
-
Confirmed TOG
-
Since Day 2 (Sunday) looks meh... here's Day 3 (Monday)
-
FWIW, MRGL risk for Sunday and Monday as well from SPC
-
Seems Josephine may not be far behind actually even if TD 10 dissipates tomorrow Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located near the central Bahamas, and on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the far eastern Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A westward-moving tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a few disorganized showers. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form early next week. This system is forecast to turn northwestward, and then northward over the western Atlantic north of the Leeward Islands through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. Forecaster Blake
-
new day 1 graphic with disco... 2/5/15
-
Josephine
-
And will be gone by tomorrow night lol
-
Imagine, for example, 5 hurricanes develop off the CV islands... if they all travel over the same path over and over, the water heat content won't be as high as if they all went over water that had not yet been disturbed by prior tropical systems. Perhaps I am overthinking... but I think that's what would happen
-
True... maybe we get saved by some overturning/upwelling though if hurricanes keep going over the same paths of water
-
Interesting. Wonder what made them change to the 10mph intervals
-
Havent seen a 65mph in a warning from LWX before BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 317 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Western Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Arlington County in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... Eastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... * Until 415 PM EDT. * At 316 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Potomac to near Linton Hall, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph and isolated hail up to quarter size. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Arlington, Alexandria, Bethesda, Bowie, Annandale, Clinton, Springfield, College Park, Fort Washington, Greenbelt, Fairfax, Langley Park, Beltsville, Fort Hunt, Vienna, Groveton, Forestville, Falls Church, Huntington and Coral Hills. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. &&
-
Just to south good stuff? Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 304 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 MDC031-221930- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0276.000000T0000Z-200722T1930Z/ Montgomery MD- 304 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY... At 303 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Green Valley to near Poolesville, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Scattered damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to quarter size. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Germantown, Damascus, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Poolesville, Boyds, Clarksburg, Darnestown, Barnesville, Dickerson, Beallsville and Dawsonville.
-
SLGT risk for severe today... damaging winds look to be biggest threat
