Jump to content

yoda

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    61,778

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    If you want historical data on severe watches and SPC kind of stuff since around 2003, go here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/ https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/
  2. yoda
    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=488&yr=2022 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0488 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 642 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 Areas affected...Northern Virginia...Southern Central Maryland...District of Columbia... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 122245Z - 130245Z SUMMARY...Very intense short-term rain rates aligning for favorable training/repeating resulting in possible localized flash flooding through late evening. DISCUSSION...Severe weather scenrio continues to unfold across the Mid-Atlantic with very strong thunderstorms and high wind gusts. This is also resulting in intense moisture convergence with these cells within a very moist and unstable environment. The mass loading into the cells have resulted in numerous reports of 1"/30 minutes with each individual cell. In the short-term, the overall speed has limited flooding concerns in all but the most prone areas, ie urban settings. However, larger scale synoptic setup has favored the cell moving across DC toward Annapolis MD in a very favorable placement to the right entrance region of the jet, but the speed max is exiting toward the northeast. Upstream across WV a secondary subtle speed max is starting to round the base of the upper trof. This has reduced the forward speed of the cold front crossing the central Applachians resulting in a weak kink or wave around W MD. As such, the outflow boundary from the initial storm as oriented favorably west to east for increased west-southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching speed max/synopic ascent. As a result oblique but sufficient isentropic ascent for additional similar but slightly less intense thunderstorms have formed generally parallel to the mean flow suggesting increased training potential across Northern VA into southern central MD. Given potential of backbuilding/training as supported by recent runs of the HRRR, an axis 2-4" totals are possible likely from Rockingham, VA toward Prince William and across into Charles county this evening. This crosses a few areas of lowered FFG due to recent heavy rainfall increasing the potential for flash flooding to occur. Gallina ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...
  3. yoda
    Didn't know VA had a mesonet?
  4. yoda
    For those east of DC metro Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 633 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 MDC003-009-017-033-037-122300- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0260.000000T0000Z-220712T2300Z/ Anne Arundel MD-St. Marys MD-Calvert MD-Prince Georges MD-Charles MD- 633 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANNE ARUNDEL...NORTHERN ST. MARYS...NORTHWESTERN CALVERT...SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGES AND NORTHEASTERN CHARLES COUNTIES... At 632 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Londontowne to near Waldorf, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Waldorf, Bowie, Clinton, Mayo, Shady Side, Chesapeake Beach, Deale, Prince Frederick, Upper Marlboro, South River, Breezy Point, Rhode River, Parole, Kettering, Rosaryville, Marlton, Dunkirk, Saint Charles, Londontowne and Accokeek. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread wind damage across Anne Arundel and Calvert counties in Maryland. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
  5. yoda
    Looks like it... though LWX is still issuing SVR for most portions
  6. yoda
    Big CG strike right by my house... house just shook
  7. yoda
    Looks like maybe some more storms over next couple hours looking west on radar
  8. yoda
    Power flickered here twice
  9. yoda
    Confirmed SVR at KIAD
  10. yoda
    Hope they're all okay
  11. yoda
    Intensifying some evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 526 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 MDC031-VAC059-061-107-153-600-610-683-685-122145- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0256.000000T0000Z-220712T2145Z/ Montgomery MD-Loudoun VA-City of Fairfax VA-City of Falls Church VA- Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA-City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA- City of Manassas VA- 526 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN...FAIRFAX...EAST CENTRAL FAUQUIER...AND CENTRAL PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES...THE CITY OF FAIRFAX...THE NORTHWESTERN CITY OF FALLS CHURCH...THE CITY OF MANASSAS PARK AND THE CITY OF MANASSAS... At 526 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near North Potomac to 6 miles southwest of Linton Hall, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Germantown, Centreville, Dale City, Rockville, Bethesda, Gaithersburg, Reston, Annandale, South Riding, Herndon, Fairfax, Vienna, Falls Church, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Mantua, Pimmit Hills and Poolesville.
  12. yoda
  13. yoda
    Wow... nice shot!
  14. yoda
  15. yoda
  16. yoda
    @mappy area right? Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 511 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 MDC015-025-122145- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-220712T2145Z/ Harford MD-Cecil MD- 511 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT FOR EASTERN HARFORD AND CECIL COUNTIES... At 510 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Riverside, or near Aberdeen, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Elkton, Aberdeen, Havre De Grace, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Calvert, Riverside, North East, Rising Sun, Perryman, Charlestown, Cecilton, Warwick, Zion, Barksdale, Bohemias Mills, West Nottingham, Octoraro, Brantwood, Fair Hill and Glen Westover. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm has produced widespread wind damage across Baltimore and Harford Counties. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3938 7582 3936 7588 3938 7596 3937 7598 3938 7605 3952 7600 3954 7606 3949 7611 3947 7607 3945 7606 3944 7605 3937 7623 3953 7624 3970 7627 3972 7579 3938 7577 TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 284DEG 41KT 3947 7627 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
  17. yoda
  18. yoda
    This near you @psuhoffman?
  19. yoda
    Severe Tstorm Warning up for you
  20. yoda
    Not saying its the same at all -- but didn't the June derecho kind of rejuvenate when it came east of i81 out of WV?
  21. yoda
  22. yoda
    Hope @EastCoast NPZ is ready And @wxtrix
  23. yoda
    Jesus onal Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 411 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 VAC043-069-171-187-840-WVC027-031-122045- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0248.000000T0000Z-220712T2045Z/ Shenandoah VA-Frederick VA-Warren VA-Clarke VA-City of Winchester VA- Hardy WV-Hampshire WV- 411 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH...FREDERICK...NORTHERN WARREN AND CLARKE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEASTERN HARDY AND SOUTHEASTERN HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE CITY OF WINCHESTER... At 409 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stephens City, or 7 miles southwest of Winchester, moving east at 55 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA ESPECIALLY INCLUDING THE CITY OF WINCHESTER AND Stephens CITY. HAZARD...90 mph wind gusts and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Many mobile homes will be heavily damaged or destroyed. Many homes and businesses will have substantial roof and window damage. Expect extensive tree damage and power outages. Locations impacted include... Winchester, Strasburg, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Stephens City, Star Tannery, Middletown, Boyce, High View, White Post, Gaylord, Blue Mountain, Nineveh, Albin, Bethel, Clary, Capon Springs, Stringtown, Gravel Springs and Howellsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION with tornado like wind speeds expected. Mobile homes and high profile vehicles are especially susceptible to winds of this magnitude and may be overturned. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. This storm has the potential to cause serious injury and significant property damage. This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3902 7853 3926 7846 3921 7794 3914 7784 3906 7789 3900 7799 3894 7804 TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 280DEG 48KT 3912 7829 TORNADO...POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...90 MPH
  24. yoda
    TVS sig on Radarscope
  25. yoda
    Southern part Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 VAC139-171-187-WVC031-122045- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0249.000000T0000Z-220712T2045Z/ Shenandoah VA-Warren VA-Page VA-Hardy WV- 404 PM EDT Tue Jul 12 2022 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN SHENANDOAH...WARREN...NORTHEASTERN PAGE AND EAST CENTRAL HARDY COUNTIES... At 403 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wardensville, or 8 miles north of Woodstock, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Front Royal, Strasburg, Woodstock, Linden, Chester Gap, Maurertown, Toms Brook, Fort Valley, Arco, Seven Fountains, Dilbeck, Harmony, Alonzaville, Riverton, Karo, Glen Echo, Bentonville, Fishers Hill, Browntown and Buckton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across northern Shenandoah County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3889 7873 3904 7862 3904 7861 3894 7804 3892 7807 3891 7807 3889 7806 3889 7809 3888 7811 3889 7812 3886 7813 3886 7814 3883 7817 3879 7819 TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 280DEG 48KT 3899 7854 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
×
×
  • Create New...