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Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022 Julia is a strengthening tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery has shown an increase in persistent and deep convection occurring over the center, with an expanding area of cloud top temperatures colder than -80 deg C. Overnight data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated the vertical structure of Julia is still organizing, with evidence of multiple low-level centers noted in the 850-mb flight level wind data. But, the aircraft reported flight-level winds of 59 kt and believable SFMR retrievals of 45-50 kt on its last pass through the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory. Weak deep-layer shear, abundant mid-level moisture, and SSTs around 29.5 degrees Celsius appear conducive for steady to rapid intensification of Julia during the next 24 h as it approaches Central America. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 63 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 h. Given the strengthening noted tonight and the improved satellite structure, the NHC forecast calls for Julia to rapidly intensify into a hurricane later today and continue strengthening through landfall on Sunday. This forecast lies between the multi-model consensus aids and the stronger SHIPS and LGEM guidance. After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to weaken as it moves across the terrain of Central America. The estimated initial motion is westward at 265/16 kt. Julia is expected to continue moving quickly westward for the next day or so along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge to its north. This motion should bring the center of Julia near San Andres and Providencia Islands this evening and over the coast of Nicaragua within the warning area early Sunday. Based on a southward shift in the track guidance, the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction to bring it closer to the multi-model consensus. As a result, the government of Nicaragua has extended Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings southward along the coast. There is still above average uncertainty regarding the future of Julia after landfall. While some models (HWRF, HMON, GFS) show the center largely remaining over land and dissipating, others (ECMWF and UKMET) show low-level vorticity associated with Julia or its remnants emerging over the eastern Pacific waters early next week. While it appears unlikely that the surface circulation would survive the topography of Nicaragua, this scenario could become more likely if there are additional southward adjustments to the track. For now, the NHC forecast shows weakening and dissipation by 72 h near the coast of Central America, but interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua should monitor forecast updates. Regardless, the set up is likely to lead to heavy rains over Central America for several days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane later today, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Nicaragua coast and the islands of Providencia and San Andres. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system crosses the islands tonight and moves onshore in Nicaragua on Sunday. 2. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected across portions of Central America this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 12.7N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 12.6N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 12.5N 82.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 12.7N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z 13.2N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 10/1800Z 13.8N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

still 60mph at 5am

60mph TS at 2am

BWI - 11/12 IAD - 11/4 DCA - 11/12 RIC - 11/15 Peak October temp at DCA - 79

Yeah, I see some sort of weird yellowish thing in the sky... not quite sure what it is... anybody know?

Beginning to wonder what the sun looks like

Been pouring here off and on the past hour or so

Ripping outside

....

Game got PPD ETA:

35 to 45mph gusts and heavy rain please

Wind gusts to 45 mph in the zones tonight for DC and BWI metro

In SE VA

CMC pretty much agrees... GFS slightly less than both

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 MDZ017-018-302200- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.220930T2200Z-221001T0800Z/ St. Marys-Calvert- Including the cities of Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, and Prince Frederick 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected along the shores of the Chesapeake. * WHERE...St. Marys and Calvert Counties. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 VAZ025-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-302200- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0014.220930T2000Z-221001T1000Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Western Pendleton- Including the cities of Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Hightown, Monterey, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, and Riverton 1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. Highest winds will be along the ridges. * WHERE...In Virginia, Augusta, Nelson, Albemarle, Greene, Western Highland and Eastern Highland Counties, and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. In West Virginia, Western Pendleton County. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result, particularly along the ridges.

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of South Santee River South Carolina to Little River Inlet. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Surf City to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

Hurricane Ian Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN BATTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 82.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued north of South Santee River South Carolina to Little River Inlet. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Surf City to Cape Lookout, North Carolina.

FWIW, which again, is next to zero lol, 18z NAM has heavy rain getting in here late Friday afternoon

Possible isolated tornado threat I think

00z EURO also coming in hot with a Saturday washout

BULLETIN Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...IAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 83.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES