Juliancolton

How would ya like -20F at 1 pm?

I love microclimate stuff like this. KPOU has already touched 59F between hours. The daily record of 63 appears to be safe, as the front is not far off now. As far as cutter torches go, this one is really short-lived... though it was more than enough to erase the pack in my 'hood.

Interesting. I had the wind shift and temp spike before 3 am.

I agree, though I will say there are definitely times when you are genuinely having a rough go of it and facing real problems in real life, and it ends up being some silly, inconsequential thing that pushes you over the edge. I'm sure most people are merely being overly dramatic, you just never know. Besides, I fail to see the issue. Everyone I regularly converse with here has full snowcover.

I'm already above freezing. What a roller coaster the last four days have been.

I was kind of wondering about ice jams. Seems like even a short-lived period of 50s would be enough to loosen things up, maybe?

I didn't start making hay with regard to radiating until after 5 am when the winds finally died down. After hovering around 0 all night, the temp dropped to -4.5 just before 8 am when the sun crested over the ridge. It's worth noting that fresh, fluffy snow would be a much better radiator than the glacier we have. I would have no way to even speculate on the quantitative difference it makes, but presumably it's not trivial. Then you have the nearly full Moon, which has been shown to warm the BL by a couple hundredths of a degree...

I had sleet, snow, grauple, and (freezing) rain all mixed together at one point while clearing the driveway. It was rather despicable.

I've just hit 32.0. The cold tuck down the river valley still amazes me with temps remaining in the low 20s just a few miles to my west. Never seen anything quite like it. 3.4" was the most I measured over the course of the night.

Check out that temp gradient aligned to the Taconic. 10-degree difference or better in 5 miles.

Yeah, these rates aren't gonna get it done sadly. If CC is any indication, the mix line is at HPN and blasting north; HRRR says we ping by 2-3 am.

"Road salt"? Is that what they're calling it these days?

Albany point forecast has a high of 37F for me tomorrow morning. While I've been leaning warm with this the whole time, I never would have guessed upper 30s.

Glazed trees glistening in the reddish light of the eclipsed moon would be pretty epic, I have to confess.

Ballsy for northern areas. Hopefully they have the right idea.

Yep, all the headache with none of the satiation. That's how it looks to me anyway... I'm still kind of reeling from my botched call for the November storm and afraid to stick my neck out all the way again, lol

Ratios will def be low with this system. Here's the NAM sounding for the period of peak forcing at my coordinates. The strongest negative omega is almost perfectly relegated to the -1C to -5C layer, which is too warm for most ice nuclei to activate, let alone for efficient snow growth by deposition. In the event this profile pans out, we'd basically be relying on the cloud layer above 650 mb or so to produce ice crystals with weak broad-scale ascent and feed them into the mid-levels, where they'd grow by riming and aggregation... but those only get you a fraction of the snow growth as would efficient vapor diffusion. Kind of a waste of what looks to be wicked frontogenesis between 850 and 700mb. If any of us managed to stay all snow, I wouldn't bet on anything higher than 7 or 8:1 storm average.

Don't you remember? We all agreed it was for the best after the incident

Won't all the rain just wash away the dust? Think of all the effort that could be saved

The interior burbs thread isn't defined by geographic boundaries, but by a state of mind. If you like a more mellow pace of posting, genuine interaction instead of perpetual MJO jousting, and a come-what-may attitude (and pina coladas), this is the place to be... no matter where you live.

On another note, I think this map is total bunkum but we can certainly hope and pray...

The NAM is a total grab bag of wintry elements. A heavy burst of snow for all to start, 3-5" or so, then the mid levels warm above freezing from around 04z to 15z Sunday. QPF during that period is around .7" to .8" for most of us. Peeking at soundings, it seems like sleet would prevail north of 84, with ZR to the south. For reference, the sleet-to-liquid ratio is typically 3:1, and freezing rain accretion averages around 0.7:1, though that varies widely. Based on all that, and with the NAM being among the iciest guidance, a catastrophic event seems unlikely. @gravitylover land would be the ice storm epicenter with perhaps a half inch of accretion.

Yeah, I have the Ariens Deluxe-28. I think I've mentioned how little I use it though. I have a grand old time pushing snow around on my little Kubota without all the defenseless dendrites getting chopped to blazes.

Had a couple good hours of skating tonight, illuminated by the moon and some Christmas lights that were still in the trees. It's a nice memory to have for July when it's 85/77 and you break a sweat from plucking ticks off your jeans

That's a work of art!