Juliancolton

Yeah, these rates aren't gonna get it done sadly. If CC is any indication, the mix line is at HPN and blasting north; HRRR says we ping by 2-3 am.

"Road salt"? Is that what they're calling it these days?

Albany point forecast has a high of 37F for me tomorrow morning. While I've been leaning warm with this the whole time, I never would have guessed upper 30s.

Glazed trees glistening in the reddish light of the eclipsed moon would be pretty epic, I have to confess.

Ballsy for northern areas. Hopefully they have the right idea.

Yep, all the headache with none of the satiation. That's how it looks to me anyway... I'm still kind of reeling from my botched call for the November storm and afraid to stick my neck out all the way again, lol

Ratios will def be low with this system. Here's the NAM sounding for the period of peak forcing at my coordinates. The strongest negative omega is almost perfectly relegated to the -1C to -5C layer, which is too warm for most ice nuclei to activate, let alone for efficient snow growth by deposition. In the event this profile pans out, we'd basically be relying on the cloud layer above 650 mb or so to produce ice crystals with weak broad-scale ascent and feed them into the mid-levels, where they'd grow by riming and aggregation... but those only get you a fraction of the snow growth as would efficient vapor diffusion. Kind of a waste of what looks to be wicked frontogenesis between 850 and 700mb. If any of us managed to stay all snow, I wouldn't bet on anything higher than 7 or 8:1 storm average.

Don't you remember? We all agreed it was for the best after the incident

Won't all the rain just wash away the dust? Think of all the effort that could be saved

The interior burbs thread isn't defined by geographic boundaries, but by a state of mind. If you like a more mellow pace of posting, genuine interaction instead of perpetual MJO jousting, and a come-what-may attitude (and pina coladas), this is the place to be... no matter where you live.

On another note, I think this map is total bunkum but we can certainly hope and pray...

The NAM is a total grab bag of wintry elements. A heavy burst of snow for all to start, 3-5" or so, then the mid levels warm above freezing from around 04z to 15z Sunday. QPF during that period is around .7" to .8" for most of us. Peeking at soundings, it seems like sleet would prevail north of 84, with ZR to the south. For reference, the sleet-to-liquid ratio is typically 3:1, and freezing rain accretion averages around 0.7:1, though that varies widely. Based on all that, and with the NAM being among the iciest guidance, a catastrophic event seems unlikely. @gravitylover land would be the ice storm epicenter with perhaps a half inch of accretion.

Yeah, I have the Ariens Deluxe-28. I think I've mentioned how little I use it though. I have a grand old time pushing snow around on my little Kubota without all the defenseless dendrites getting chopped to blazes.

Had a couple good hours of skating tonight, illuminated by the moon and some Christmas lights that were still in the trees. It's a nice memory to have for July when it's 85/77 and you break a sweat from plucking ticks off your jeans

That's a work of art!

Anyone heading down to watch them blow up the TZB tomorrow am? I'm torn between it being a cool thing to see and it not being cool enough to justify driving all morning to see a 30 second show.

Feet and feet. You know this is gonna verify because I want to watch the eclipse, and @gravitylover wants to not have 3 feet of snow on his driveway.

Agreed, but even if sensible weather stays roughly the same, you'll still see folks spiking the ball. The old familiar routine of "the pattern panned out exactly like I expected, we just got (un)lucky."

Someone on twitter said the GEFS look good if you extrapolate the last frame and then replace that with a reanalysis of Boxing Day. It's coming!

We punt. Months and months of perpetual early April minus 10 degees, put it out of our misery.

Nope, just rain for a change...

Everyone marveling in wonderment at a dusting is how you know it's one of "those" winters, lol. Kids on delayed start, facebook feeds brimming with patio shots, the whole shebang

This one has legs I think.