Juliancolton
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Everything posted by Juliancolton
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http://www.sidc.oma.be/products/presto/
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Looks pretty lopsided. It'll be par for the course with this solar cycle if we manage to miss a CME from this perfectly-placed sunspot group
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That last M3.7 flare was very long-lived... that's the one to watch out for. Full-halo CME seems quite likely when the Lasco imagery updates.
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G3 watch posted for November 2 ^
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Some CH shenanigans on Tuesday night, perhaps. The CIR shockwave should remain underdeveloped until after passing earth, but it's worth keeping an eye on in any event.
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The good (?) news is that there's nothing going on... 750 km/s of ~1 atom/sqcm solar wind seems like a Yellowknife special. The real dedicated aurora chasers (even as far down as RI) reported about 15 minutes of lights just after dark, but now it's back to the high latitudes.
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Particle density and the IMF sure got mediocre
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This morning's CME is modeled to head mostly south of the ecliptic, but it's still probably worth keeping an eye on the IMF by Sunday.
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Sort of off-topic, but I just imaged the ISS transiting the sun and thought it turned out nicely:
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I think the only way to really take advantage of the ambient solar wind in the mid-latitudes is for a coronal hole stream to sort of intersect a CIR, though I'm not sure how often that happens in reality. I'm hoping we're not done with real sunspots for the rest of the cycle. That active region a couple weeks ago was huge, but pretty benign magnetically.
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I actually have some color right now, though it looks to be quickly fading.
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SWPC just issued a G3 warning, which is a bit peculiar.
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One of the more impressive VIIRS aurora shots I've seen, showing the extent of the oval at 3 am:
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Folks in the midwest reporting strong naked-eye auroras, even through the moonlight... I'd almost certainly have at least imageable lights if not for the dense overcast over my northern horizon.
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Did anybody get anything? It looked pretty decent in pics from MWN but that's not hard to do...
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A little interesting for tonight. Solar wind velocities have been generally increasing all day, and while nothing special, it's worth keeping an eye on.
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No great loss... looks like we mostly miss anyway.
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We'd be pretty well humped in the event of an 1859-esque storm, as far as I know. "$1 trillion to $2 trillion during the first year [...] with recovery times of 4 to 10 years, plus $40-$70 billion in losses to satellites, and that's before you even start to consider the "hundreds of Fukushimas" melting down. Sure would be pretty though.
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Meh. The lack of light pollution would be sweet initially, but after the third week of not being able to upload the pictures, it might start tipping the scales toward 'no thanks'.
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(source) The WSA-Enlil ensemble model (I think that's what this is) looks decent, though given our track record with progged direct hits, I never put too much faith in glancing blows. Albany has granted me a "partly cloudy" on Friday night, so maybe there's a chance.
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Lights cancel tonight. Gonna try for some Milky Way shots as long as I have my batteries charged.
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How do these things always manage to hit in the late morning/early afternoon? It's even more uncanny than the weekend snowstorm rule. Ah well, doesn't look that great anyway.
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Great shot eyewall, look forward to seeing some more. Clouded out here, and what I saw was nothing compared to the upper midwest and NNE, but I couldn't be happier even if I were Jim Cantore in the thundersnow. Full-halo CME this afternoon from the same active region, so maybe we can thread the needle on Wednesday night before the endless cloudiness commences.
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That was amazing just now. Unlike anything I've seen down here. Huge naked eye pillars dancing around.
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Particle density got mighty jumpy over the past few minutes. Would those spikes be enough for substorming or not really?
