Juliancolton
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Everything posted by Juliancolton
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Just for fun, my call: HPN - 6.7" DXR - 7.5" POU - 5.5" SWF - 5.8" MGJ - 4.9" Jackpot at the Salem balancing rock - 8.4"
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Some intense rates progged for the wee hours. Given that this is fixed at 10:1, I'd bump the shading north by a bit. A line from Peekskill to Mahopac to Danbury is my favored jackpot corridor, accounting for the best balance of liquid and improved ratios relative to areas closer to the water.
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TropicalTidbits generates point-soundings for the op GFS, 3km NAM, HRRR, and WRFs. The College of DuPage site has RAP. If you have any questions about how to read them, I'll be happy to try and help. I'm not terribly skillful with using sounding progs in the course of operational forecasting, but I do have the theory behind them down fairly well.
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Albany mentions a R/S mix to start for me as well. I doubt either of us see much rain... if there is any liquid, it's long gone within an hour of start time.
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Not sure if folks have been paying attention (I haven't), but this week looks frigid.
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No no, you're doing terrific, I'm just a little tired. ...wait, you're not my gf.
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1.2" Third day in a row with accumulating snow; tomorrow and Monday should make five, so that's kind of cool I guess.
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Sun angle should cancel that out and keep us capped around 36".
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Nah, tomorrow is just the handful of M&M's you grab on your way out the door... Sunday night is the appetizer and March 9 is the all you can eat buffet.* *Any resemblance to actual events purely coincidental.
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It could meet advisory criteria for sure, although I think odds are against it. It's a small, late-blooming system with a suboptimal trajectory outside the benchmark... like 39N/69W on the Euro and even a little further east on the NAM. Loose ML temp gradient on the NW side means no real argument for banding, and the DGZ is shallow.
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Probably less snow than most of us got last night.
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I knew eastern Ulster had shadowing issues to some extent. Didn't think it could have been that drastic though. If you've seen evidence of it on the ground instead of just generated by an elevation algorithm, then I believe it.
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I hadn't seen this map from Albany before. Pretty interesting although I think it exaggerates the topographic influence a great deal. I'm in or near (hard to tell with the funky projection) the 76-100" speck just past the "e" in Poughkeepsie. There's no way I average anywhere close to that, especially for 1981-2010 climo. And for Gardiner to average just 21-30" while the Shaupeneak Ridge is over 60" seems pretty implausible.
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It finally fell the rest of the way in one of the snow/ice storms and just shattered into wood chips on account of being rotted through.
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Albany going with 3-5" here, citing expected 18:1 ratios in their AFD. I believe that 3" would be miraculous.
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Airport up the street from me (720 ft) gusted to 60 mph with sustained over 40. Really impressive.
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Hopewell fire station courtesy facebook
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With the strength of the pressure gradient and depth of the mixed layer, tomorrow is probably as formidable a setup for synoptic wind as you'll ever see around here. It could really be genuinely unnerving for a few hours. Makes me glad we weren't a few ticks cooler last night and today to leave a glaze on everything in advance... bullet dodged there to an extent.
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I'm a fan of the GFS look for next weekend. It's a season-redeemer if the southern shortwave is a bit slower.
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Pitch pines flying off Wurtsboro Ridge
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There was some solid drift action going on along the south shore of the Ashokan today, although I guess anything short of deep winter in the Catskillls in February would be the bigger surprise. I'm not doing too badly imby - a nice uniform 3" base with no bare spots yet. On tomorrow, the NAM continues its multi-run trend of more moisture further north. Good if you want more ice, slush, slop, gloop, etc. Bad if you're not a psychopath.
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That's a pretty incredible difference. I was disappointed when I checked my station from the road and saw I "only" made it to 3 - had no idea most places stayed relatively warm.
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4F with a couple hours of potential cooling left. Could get a sneaky 0.
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It looks pretty nice outside with the sun breaking through the altostratus now and lighting up the fresh snow. I know last night was a Category 5 stinker in most areas, but if you lived north of POU (there are dozens of us, dozens!) and went into it expecting 2-5", then eh... it was a nice refresher, nothing more and nothing less. 24.6" now on the season. All we need is 2" of slop on Thursday, a respectable storm in March, and the inevitable 3-4" daffodil downer in April and 40" is in reach.
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This system continues to look moisture starved to me based on radar and obs. The HRRR seems to have a slightly better handle on precip distribution at 00z than the NAM... the former has clearing skies by dawn tomorrow after C-2", while the NAM fully supports warning criteria snows with mood flakes lasting until tomorrow evening. It's an interesting battle between the known NAM wet bias, and the known HRRR bad model bias.
