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Juliancolton

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Everything posted by Juliancolton

  1. Juliancolton
    Meticulously respooling all my reels with the best braided line money can buy, so I can backlash them on my first cast in the spring
  2. Juliancolton
    The first storm was the really destructive one around here - more tree damage imby than in the Octobomb, even with 1/2 to 1/3 of the total accumulation, depending on how often you measure. A couple of the 75+ year-old Norway spruces that used to have perfect Christmas tree shapes are now forever all straggly-looking. That was the one where I spent the night in Shandaken and nearly couldn't find a passable route home.
  3. Juliancolton
    Yup, doesn't matter what the numbers say if one knows what they narrowly missed out on.
  4. Juliancolton
    Agreed, the NYC subforum is the most natural fit for folks up to POU and beyond. The Upstate NY/PA subforum is a whole different world... as far as I'm concerned it may as well be the Tennessee Valley. In some events I can get away with slumming it with the NE crowd, as I'm only about 10 miles from the CT border, but that subforum already covers such a wide array of climates and geographies that it seems kind of unfair to tug at the borders even further.
  5. Juliancolton
    Did you fare any better with the next storm? I think that was more uniform across the area, but after a season or two, all except the most extreme weather events sort of blend together in my head. That was a good month up here, though... I went 9" - 15" - 6" (ish) with the storms on the 2nd, 7th, and 12th, then picked up another 4" toward the end of the month.
  6. Juliancolton
    This weekend's threat has shades of the first March '18 storm. Hopefully we tick a little colder than that ended up being.
  7. Juliancolton
    It's kind of nice that the GFS op got markedly worse with upper low placement and jet dynamics, and still managed to fashion a snowstorm.
  8. Juliancolton
    Simply terrific abstract and macro shots. Ice is always a great subject... it has been a dream of mine for a while to photograph the methane bubbles on Alberta's Abraham Lake in the winter.
  9. Juliancolton
    I'm going to pretend like this GFS run was the final word on next weekend and just go through the rest of the week waiting on my feet and feet for days and days.
  10. Juliancolton
    We had lots of non-snow precip here. I wound up with about 7" of snow, sleet, and grauple, packed down by the interspersed periods of rain. Depth never exceeded 6", although it did stick around for weeks on account of the high density and cold pattern.
  11. Juliancolton
    Give me one 12" storm and I'll be sated. @CPcantmeasuresnow is already covered on that front.
  12. Juliancolton
    It was nice to have a relatively straightforward system for once. Of course there were the typical p-type and qpf questions, but like you say the synoptics had been pretty much pinned down for days in advance.
  13. Juliancolton
    Windy storms suck. Snowy trees are like 2/3rds of the aesthetic, so if you lose that, then meh.
  14. Juliancolton
    FWIW, here's the "low end amount" forecast from this morning. The frequency with which I get less or more snow than the worst- and best-case scenario maps, respectively, seems to suggest that the probabilities need fine-tuning. The difference between 2.8" and 3-4" is negligible, but still... the 'you will definitely get at least this much' amount should be lower in these situations.
  15. Juliancolton
    2.8" will do it here. Funnily enough that's exactly the number I had in mind this morning. I should have posted it! A few minutes of light sleet imby as well.
  16. Juliancolton
    Pretty uniform totals region-wide, nice to see. Definitely starting to lose mid-level moisture here with precip intensity decreasing quickly.
  17. Juliancolton
    Well, whether it be by changeover or shutoff, looks like most of us will be done with accumulations inside of 90 minutes. Fast-moving system with collapsing forcing mechanisms ftl.
  18. Juliancolton
    Pixie dusting my way past the 1" mark. Like pulling teeth...
  19. Juliancolton
    Short-term model guidance is part and parcel of "nowcasting" IMO. Otherwise it's just called looking at radar loops.
  20. Juliancolton
    16/2F atm with the wind still out of the NE. Doesn't bode well for the conventional swfe wall of snow to start.
  21. Juliancolton
    While this mostly concerns interior areas where p-type isn't as much of a worry, it's worth noting that although QPF has increased a little at 12z, the soundings also got a fair bit worse for snow growth. It may cancel out. That's a lot of lift and vertical real estate now focused in the riming layer with the warmer mid-level temps.
  22. Juliancolton
    And, perhaps more to the point, why post something if you think it's wrong...
  23. Juliancolton
    Yeah, that's optimistic for northern areas. We're looking at a ~4-hour window for decent snow growth and there's no guarantee we utilize all of it. 2-4" is a safe call. As an aside, it feels like we've been waiting for this "event" for an eternity and it's still 48 hours out...
  24. Juliancolton
    Very much looking forward to another 2-3 months of a red tagger barking "you're wrong" at ppl without giving any reason why
  25. Juliancolton
    It's proper muggy out. Not "for January", not "compared to last week", but full stop.
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