Juliancolton
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Everything posted by Juliancolton
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Dec 16-17, 2019 snow-sleet glaze OBSERVATIONS ONLY
Juliancolton replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
.5" snow/sleet before over to freezing drizzle. 28F Misery loves company with this one! -
People make such an occasion out of the first flakes at their location. Hear ye, hear ye! Whereas, upon this day the sixteenth of December in the year of our Lord two thousand and nineteen, a tempest is inaugurated at this location; and, whereas, the elements being of such temper as to render water vapours coalesced into fine crystals; therefore, let it be known...
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This is a wicked warm layer. Mesos seem to be trending back toward a sloppier solution this evening after it looked like a mostly-snow event was possible.
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I had the same thought this morning, then figured, "Eh, what's the difference?" If it doesn't work, I'm not getting another one by midnight tonight anyway
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The latest GFS is almost entirely freezing rain for most here, ending as light snow. The trend has been for a slightly tighter circulation and as a result we get a northerly low-level flow throughout the event, supplying the fresh cold air source necessary for an ice storm. My annual reminder that ice accretes on elevated surfaces (everything that isn't the ground) at about 0.75:1 on average so you need to be especially careful with modeled freezing rain totals which, as far as I know, still assume 1:1.
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Sure, but the sun angle at solar noon only drops another 0.2° between now and the solstice. Do you really think that 0.2° of sun elevation outweighs all the other signals telling us it's winter? That going skating beneath the Rockefeller tree is an autumn pastime?
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Same as it ever was. Pretty remarkable that not enough halfway through December, many of us are already well average on the month for both rain *and* snow. Active pattern, to be sure.
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I will not abide the use of astronomical seasons on this forum.
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Waterways are rather full around here. Maybe some minor hydro issues with another couple inches of rain.
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Well, that's all of next year's meteor showers ruined. Nice going, jerk
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I'm only half-joking when I say the NWS should authorize the taking of official measurements on car tops in marginal temp events like this morning. That's how the vast majority of people interact with what fell. When Joe the plumber clears 3" off his car, it doesn't matter what some nerds with pieces of white plywood say... he'll tell people he got 3".
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3.7" new snow @ 26F. Roads are messy.
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Snow at 32F with vis around 1/2 mile. Sticking nicely to all but the darkest surfaces, so there will probably be a nice caking of snow when dawn breaks. I certainly did not anticipate changing over this early.
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Man alive... it feels like it's been raining for a month. Multi-day rainstorms around the shortest daylight hours of the year are atrocious. Making some headway on temp, at least. 34F now.
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Yeah, the ceiling is low for most. I think there is a heightened potential for little mesoscale features to enhance totals in a few spots. Maybe one of those deals where some school district gets 4" and calls a delay, and everyone goes "wtf" in neighboring towns after clearing a dusting off their cars.
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Two thoughts: 1) The NAM over the last couple runs has become more aggressive with fgn over the interior late tonight/early tomorrow. 2) We're gonna get rimed to heck and back.
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The sleet layer is resurrected.
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My low was 6 earlier. Some stations were down around 3 or 4F north of US-44, which leads me to believe a few of the coldest hollows touched 0.
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Flurries are ongoing here, so I've clenched the 7 consecutive days of flakes falling. It's finally at the point where even the GP is taking notice.
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It's a way of life, man.
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We'll likely tack on a sixth day of flakes tomorrow. Saturday is a long shot.
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The temp wants so badly to freefall into oblivion. On the brink of decoupling as I bounce between 17 and 20 from minute to minute, depending on clouds. An hour of clear skies at this point and I'd be in single digits
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I believe the focus of that band remained pretty much stationary from Albany down to about Hyde Park, closely following the river corridor. The 12-20" reports in NW Dutchess and SW Columbia are very impressive. I was likely sitting under subsidence between areas of enhancement, which would explain why I only saw about an inch after 9 pm.
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7.4" of snow, sleet, and grauple since Sunday morning
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Radar has filled in nicely... there won't be any death bands like some models were hinting at earlier, but I'm still seeing periods of steady accumulating snows. If this keeps up for the rest of the evening I'll be able to make peace with this storm.
