Juliancolton

Through the end of March is definitely valid at his latitude. Even down here in the valley, March or April was the snowiest month in four of the last seven winters. It's always possible we shut it down for good in short order, but if you could only reference climo, it wouldn't be a stretch at all to allow for at least 8 more weeks in the interior.

At least we get an extra day to enjoy the new and improved pattern on account of the Leap Year.

You're mean.

I strongly feel that the problems are more fundamental than that. The ridge out west is poorly oriented, very broad, and progged to be further assaulted by the strong vort lobe falling south from Canada. There's just nothing to reliably drive the northern s/w down through the base of the trough in the fashion of big phasing systems. The disturbance leaving the Southeast coast tonight is definitely not helping, though given the lack of any meaningful baroclinicity along the coast in the first place, that may not matter much in the end, either.

"All cold, all the time," to borrow a phrase from our neighbors in the NE subforum. Applied to forecasters (and then some) who show a consistent wintry bias in their outlooks...

Steve D is a charter member of the ACATT syndicate and an enormous jabroni. Fractionally better than JB, if we're being charitable.

The "threat is x days away" self-assurance is fallacious. The responsible trough is amplifying over the west as we speak. You don't have until the would-be start time to see wholesale synoptic changes.

It's dead, Jim.

Honestly not sure. I would lean toward it being flu because of the full-body aches and stiffness. Unfortunately I neglected to get the shot this year, so it would serve me right I suppose.

Eh, can't complain. ...it would take too long

So today is the 19th day this month with a >=40F high at POU. Record is a tie at 20 days between 2012 and 1990, so we're solidly in the upper echelon of bad winters. GFS MOS maxes out at 38F tomorrow.

I have the worst cold or maybe flu in years, and it's absolutely miserable. Definitely scrub your hands to the bone for the foreseeable future.

You wouldn't starve, you'd just have to start lowering your standards as the hours ticked past. That 3-year-old steak in the freezer that you feel guilty about discarding but that you'd never eat by choice? That's going in the microwave. Gross canned soup? Fair game. You probably even have a box of instant oatmeal—God forbid—stowed away somewhere. Otherwise, the rule of threes (three minutes without oxygen, three days without water, three weeks without food) pretty much precludes any chance of starvation from the kinds of snowstorms we see. Some people were snowed-in for a week after the Lindsay storm, and that was just a spectacular display of political bungling, so it's probably hard to go much longer than that.

.91" storm total

This one is more centric. Hour-240 snow maps, wild conjecture, those sorts of things... it keeps the monthly thread open to more serious pattern analysis.

Looks like I'll hit 50F today without a problem. Let the torch roll on, apparently.

I want to have that guy's job. Epic.

Agreed, but this month specifically has a strong claim to suckiest January in memory. +12F through the first half (including only one subfreezing high until the 17th!!) and then when we finally get some seasonably chilly air, it will yield to a drenching 45F rain. My 2.8" total snowfall this month is only nominally less dreadful than the corresponding 2.5" in Jan '16, though I'd argue that snow went to better use, since it was spread out across three wintry days.

I'll go down with the ship, as is tradition. Besides, as of today it's just 150 days until decreasing daylight

It seems like, in addition to the warmer and more inland trends, the models also favor more latitude gain before the low occludes and stalls, reducing the risk of any big hydrological or coastal impacts. I'm sure that's been at the forefront of everyone's attention this week...

Keep us posted. Never was quite sure what it means to give up on winter or throw in the towel or whatever verbiage you please. If it snows, will you protest and stay in bed until it's over? Will you simply refuse to acknowledge the sensation of cold until next December?

so say we all

Meticulously respooling all my reels with the best braided line money can buy, so I can backlash them on my first cast in the spring

The first storm was the really destructive one around here - more tree damage imby than in the Octobomb, even with 1/2 to 1/3 of the total accumulation, depending on how often you measure. A couple of the 75+ year-old Norway spruces that used to have perfect Christmas tree shapes are now forever all straggly-looking. That was the one where I spent the night in Shandaken and nearly couldn't find a passable route home.

Yup, doesn't matter what the numbers say if one knows what they narrowly missed out on.