Juliancolton

We really needed this rain, I was starting to get worried about water levels

0.79" here so far. Looks like another rainy afternoon on top. The models have been frigid in the long-range for multiple cycles now. The GFS op has three or four shots of sub-528 dm thicknesses starting around D8, and the EPS/GEFS certainly support that kind of pattern. Frost danger through mid-month at least.

It's been a little less intense than that here, but much more impressive in duration. The gusts have been roaring since early evening yesterday versus a few hours in the Easter Monday system.

Sunday looks salvageable. Not a gem but mild with periods of sun. GFS has a little more moisture around in the afternoon than the Euro.

The delayed exit seems to have been real, but the ULL trended south today such that we end up under a more diffluent regime for most of Saturday. Clear until evening with potential for spot 70F if that holds. The models have been pretty chaotic with this period. It's been interesting to watch... if there were even whispers of frozen precip, everyone would be losing their minds over these swings.

As feared, the upper low is hanging back more and more with each run.

It's extra awful this year, both in perception and all objective measures. Usually by May we've had at least one meaningful stretch of decent weather. It seems that the best we can do this spring is the occasional near-normal day when it feels kinda-sorta nice if the wind dies down. We may try to sneak in some transient ridging next weekend, though I don't trust that Friday storm not to overstay its welcome.

So we're officially past the average first 80F day at POU. Last year came within a few days of all-time latest. Can we do it again? GEFS and EPS certainly show no risk of breaking that particular ceiling any time soon.

Heh, nah... if anything, I'd be Andorian. Those guys aren't half as square as the Vulcans. I do get analytical with some of my hobbies, but mostly I just like to learn the reasons for things I observe or intuit in the wild. I'm not very good at retaining info in academic contexts, so when I'm able to offer insight, it usually stems from something I once majorly screwed up. And yeah, any covering should buy you the handful of degrees that you'll need in most cases. Raised beds warm up quickly in the daytime, so if you get them covered up as soon as the sun goes down, they can stay relatively toasty compared to in-ground plots.

If memory serves, you were rarin' to get plants in the ground about 6 weeks ago. Glad I talked you out of it. I would absolutely not bet on no more frosts, or even freezes. Like you mention, that mean trough in the east is here to stay for two weeks or more based on the morning's ensemble guidance. Most interior spots are still yet to reach average last frost date (though maybe you're right on the cusp down there?), so a solidly BN pattern when climo isn't really that warm is a recipe for disaster for all but the hardiest food producing plants. Even if you managed to avoid a killing frost, cold soil causes myriad and manifest problems that would likely stunt growth for weeks. The soil temp here is 42F, so maybe mid-40s by you. Nitrogen fixation close to nil, high risk of root rot, high susceptibility to bacterial and viral infections... just not worth it. You'd end up farther ahead by waiting for more conducive wx.

I don't have the numbers to back it up, but I'm pretty sure I've seen snow on more days in April than I did in any of the preceding three months.

Fake cold in full effect right now. Already down to 27 in the backyard but but still 35 on top of the hill down the road.

My dogs are 11 (mastiff) and 17 (tiny poodle mutt)... if they could even see or hear an invading rodent they still couldn't be arsed to get up and do anything about it.

42F by the river in PK and 28F at the house. Different worlds a few miles apart.

US 44 between Millbrook and North Canaan is a beautiful route any time of year. It's sort of a trip to the past as one drives through the little communities that time left behind. With the exception of a few convenience stores, you won't find any retail chains in Millerton, Millerton, Salisbury, etc... just old-fashioned hardware stores, original diners, little B&Bs. It's charming. These villages are very interested in maintaining that aesthetic by controlling who can open up. With the new rail trails, hiking trails, state and local parks, and other attractions along that corridor, it's a pretty under-appreciated part of the region IMO. I've been in Millbrook 19 years now and it's the same as it ever was. Quite literally indistinguishable from 2001 in almost all respects. I find it comforting in a way.

Just rain here, any snow that may have fallen is long gone. 2020 will 2020...

HRRR and NAM ticked quite a bit warmer in southern parts of the WWA area. I'm starting to get that too-familiar winter 2019-20 feeling (you know the one). For posterity, point forecast is 3-7" tonight and 1-2" tomorrow.

Yeah, reopening needs to happen sooner than later if people are to stay in business. I just wonder whether the official lifting of shutdown will be enough to stop the bleeding. Hopefully most people are comfortable going out to eat, going to the mall, visiting specialty shops, etc. with reasonable precautions. There's gonna be a lot of soul-searching and hand-wringing in the coming months and years, to be sure. I'll have no problem sitting down for dinner in a clean restaurant or buying clothes in roomy stores, but will I ever feel totally at ease again spending a Saturday afternoon shopping at Woodbury? Hard to say... Count me in. When this is all over, socializing > everything else Back to all rain here. The southerly flow up the valley is doing me no favors.

I ended up getting a burger to go from the local gastropub... pretty depressing scenes. Tables stacked in the corner, designated standing area 6 feet from the bar while paying, special receptacle for "used" pens awaiting disinfecting. I'm sure they must be doing some tenuous business, else it wouldn't be worth staying open, but it really hits home how badly these places are suffering. That joint is swamped on a normal Friday from early afternoon to the wee hours, and now you have a few stragglers sheepishly ambling through the door over the course of the night. Terrible. Anyway, white rain here at 34/33. Looks like this is going to be entirely dependent on rates. Needs to come down faster than it can melt.

I just tried to order Chinese takeout and they said at least a two hour wait, LOL. Time to go trap snowshoe hares or something, I guess.

41/29 with a touch of drizzle. Little more concerned about low-level temps than I was this afternoon.

I've really been pining for some prolonged warm wx lately, but there's no question that I'm enjoying tracking a frozen precip event one last time. Almost offers a little sense of normalcy. 2.9" gets me my biggest snowfall since Dec 11th. That 19-week drought isn't toooo much shorter than the presumed off-season. I think that's a decent total to shoot for up here before the 900mb level torches around midnight. The potential really goes up with even just a bit more latitude and elevation. 6-8" not out of the question up near the tri-point around Millerton and Salisbury.

A healthy coating of snow here this morning.

1) model wind gust output is a joke; 2) I stockpiled about 100 gals of gas for my generator right before the shutdown started, so bring it on!