Juliancolton

I was smoking an outstanding cigar tonight (Midnight Express maduro by Caldwell) and had a moment of overdue clarity in my relaxed state of mind: it's probably not gonna snow that much on May 9th. We back-end coating if we lucky.

I'm locking that in, no offense

It's funny, the other day I was thinking about sequence of moods from "want snow for snow's sake" to "don't want snow" and then "want snow again for the novelty" as spring progresses. If you asked me one month ago I'd have said to heck with it. Now, bring it on.

Lord. Wreckage on the GFS.

I just want enough snow so I can draw the date on top of the car with my finger. I know that shot became obsolete with digital exif data that tells you the millisecond it was created, but I still enjoy it

How we also pray. Let's get this inside of 48, please.

Ohhh how we pray.

I can only imagine the tedium of using a typewriter to argue about snowfall maps!

AWT

It was nice before about 10 am, but it's been nasty since then. 54F, steady light rain, blustery winds. Yuck.

Aye, we record lows and probably we at least flake. There are a few different waves that could all deepen just a hair more and introduce the possibility of messy accums.

We really needed this rain, I was starting to get worried about water levels

0.79" here so far. Looks like another rainy afternoon on top. The models have been frigid in the long-range for multiple cycles now. The GFS op has three or four shots of sub-528 dm thicknesses starting around D8, and the EPS/GEFS certainly support that kind of pattern. Frost danger through mid-month at least.

It's been a little less intense than that here, but much more impressive in duration. The gusts have been roaring since early evening yesterday versus a few hours in the Easter Monday system.

Sunday looks salvageable. Not a gem but mild with periods of sun. GFS has a little more moisture around in the afternoon than the Euro.

The delayed exit seems to have been real, but the ULL trended south today such that we end up under a more diffluent regime for most of Saturday. Clear until evening with potential for spot 70F if that holds. The models have been pretty chaotic with this period. It's been interesting to watch... if there were even whispers of frozen precip, everyone would be losing their minds over these swings.

As feared, the upper low is hanging back more and more with each run.

It's extra awful this year, both in perception and all objective measures. Usually by May we've had at least one meaningful stretch of decent weather. It seems that the best we can do this spring is the occasional near-normal day when it feels kinda-sorta nice if the wind dies down. We may try to sneak in some transient ridging next weekend, though I don't trust that Friday storm not to overstay its welcome.

So we're officially past the average first 80F day at POU. Last year came within a few days of all-time latest. Can we do it again? GEFS and EPS certainly show no risk of breaking that particular ceiling any time soon.

Heh, nah... if anything, I'd be Andorian. Those guys aren't half as square as the Vulcans. I do get analytical with some of my hobbies, but mostly I just like to learn the reasons for things I observe or intuit in the wild. I'm not very good at retaining info in academic contexts, so when I'm able to offer insight, it usually stems from something I once majorly screwed up. And yeah, any covering should buy you the handful of degrees that you'll need in most cases. Raised beds warm up quickly in the daytime, so if you get them covered up as soon as the sun goes down, they can stay relatively toasty compared to in-ground plots.

If memory serves, you were rarin' to get plants in the ground about 6 weeks ago. Glad I talked you out of it. I would absolutely not bet on no more frosts, or even freezes. Like you mention, that mean trough in the east is here to stay for two weeks or more based on the morning's ensemble guidance. Most interior spots are still yet to reach average last frost date (though maybe you're right on the cusp down there?), so a solidly BN pattern when climo isn't really that warm is a recipe for disaster for all but the hardiest food producing plants. Even if you managed to avoid a killing frost, cold soil causes myriad and manifest problems that would likely stunt growth for weeks. The soil temp here is 42F, so maybe mid-40s by you. Nitrogen fixation close to nil, high risk of root rot, high susceptibility to bacterial and viral infections... just not worth it. You'd end up farther ahead by waiting for more conducive wx.

I don't have the numbers to back it up, but I'm pretty sure I've seen snow on more days in April than I did in any of the preceding three months.

Fake cold in full effect right now. Already down to 27 in the backyard but but still 35 on top of the hill down the road.

My dogs are 11 (mastiff) and 17 (tiny poodle mutt)... if they could even see or hear an invading rodent they still couldn't be arsed to get up and do anything about it.