mob1

Decide for yourselves...

Here's the sounding from the GFS for his area (roughly), that's actually decent temps for the dendritic growth zone but the winds at height probably argue against really good ratios. Precipitation rates also come into play here as you'd need something heavier (like the NAM shows) to get proper dynamic cooling. Light rates with a surface temperature of just about freezing won't do much. A general rule that would serve people well is that for coastal areas the ratios don't usually exceed the standard 10-1. There any obviously plenty of exceptions but more often than not it's best to ignore ratios for the coastal plain.

For skiers, this has been a fantastic start to the season. Belleayre is nearly fully open, which is exceedingly rare for this time of year, and VT is faring extremely well. In general, even if nothing pans out, I'd rather cold with at least the prospects of some snow threats than warmth. It's exciting and the emotional roller coaster is part of it, it's similar to how I root for terrible sports teams (something about hope being eternal).

Such a crap model

ICON completely lost Sunday's wave

Canadian has the wave on the 14th as well (albeit a weak one)

We hope and pray

Was a nice surprise this morning to wake up to a dusting here in Staten Island. Now I'm ready for some real snow.

GFS looks nothing like the Euro and is significantly warmer than its own 12Z run. North and west of the city still make out well. Pretty good for the ski resorts.

EWR, JFK, and LGA all gusting to 45 mph now. Decent winds here but nothing particularly noteworthy.

Recon is going in on a SE to NW pass

All kidding aside, they're already gusting past 60 mph there.

There's supposed to be one, but it's been going in circles next to Haiti so I'm not sure what's happening.

Yeah...

Very possible. It takes a LOT to build (and in this case rebuild) a hurricane's core and it's fairly easy to get faked out by warm spots on IR. Even that radar isn't exactly the greatest resolution (and whatever that clearing is, it's very far from the radar site) so it can easily be a displaced MLC. I don't think it's the case though. We'll see from the recon if there are any pressure falls or if the inner structure has improved a bit from the last recon. It's starting to look fairly healthy on IR and radar so it'll be interesting.

That pass was a while ago though, and those radar images (especially the last frame that shows an attempt at building an eye) is from mere moments ago. There's another plane enroute so we'll know soon.

From this radar loop it looks pretty legit.

The mountains of Jamaica are still squeezing out some serious moisture from Melissa, flooding must be really bad there.

That stream looks intense, and they're likely a bit east of the strongest winds.

Recon recorded 173 KT flight level winds. Insane.

Arapahoe Basin opens tomorrow

Pouring rain here and winds picking up. 1.16" so far. JFK gusting to 44 mph at the top of the hour.

Been raining pretty good for the last hour, quickly moved past an inch.

HRRR keeps delaying the stronger winds and now only has it tomorrow morning for a brief period. Either way, it looks like the rain bands coming off the ocean now are a bit steadier than the ones we've had all day and models have an additional inch for many of us.

HRRR has an extended period (4-6 hours or so) of spotty showers and then steadier rain moves back in a bit later tonight. As for winds, it should increase a bit as well as the low moves up and occludes (nothing to write home about though).