Roger Smith

I give mine an eh?

Just a note to indicate files in this thread are always updated ... after two very mild winters (2022-23, 2023-24) at Toronto and NYC, the past winter was not as extreme although still milder than average. Excel files posted earlier have also been updated; if anyone wants an updated version send me a message.

I would guess min 33 max 43 Tues 8th, and min 29 max 46 on Wed 9th (NYC), 27/39 and 25/43 lower valley and rural NJ with 1-2" snow Tuesday over Catskills and Berkshires, only a few stray flakes in se NY, 0.5" to 1.0" Poconos and a few n NJ higher elevations.

Forecasts for April 2025 FORECASTER _____________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA StormchaserChuck _______________ +1.7 _+1.8 _+1.6 __ +1.2 _ +2.1 _+1.6 __+2.1 _+2.7 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning __________________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+0.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 ____________________+1.2 _+1.7 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+1.9 _+1.8 __+0.9 _+1.8 _+0.1 so_whats_happening ______________+1.2 _ +1.1 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+1.1 _ +1.2 __+0.8 _+2.1 _+0.4 Tom _______________________________ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +1.3 __+0.7 _ +1.1 _+1.3 __+0.9 _+1.6 _+0.7 RJay _______________________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _+2.5 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ Consensus _________________+0.4 _+0.4_+0.7__-0.1 _+1.4 _+1.4__+0.9 _+1.7_+0.5 ___ Normal _________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 DonSutherland1 ___________________ -0.2 _-0.2 _+0.3 __-0.4 _+1.3 _+1.3 __+0.7 _+1.0 _+0.4 Roger Smith _______________________ -0.3 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -0.5 _+2.0 _+2.5 __-1.0 _+2.7 _ 0.0 RodneyS __________________________ -0.3 _-0.8 _-0.1 __ -2.4 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 __-1.3 _-0.6 _+0.8 wxallannj___________________________-0.5 _-0.7 _-0.5 __ -0.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.2 _+2.1 _+1.8 BKViking ___________________________-0.8 _-0.2 _-0.4 __ -0.5 _+0.2 _+1.4 __+1.2 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxdude64 _________________________ -1.3 _ -1.8 _ -1.6 __ -0.7 _+1.6 _+1.1 ___+1.7 _+1.9 _+0.4 ______ Persistence (Mar 2025) _____________+6.7 _+4.1 _+4.0 __+5.4 _+3.6 _+4.6 __+4.2 _+1.5 __0.0

Six recent Marches ranked (2020 to 2025) 8th, t-15th, 19th, t-27th, 7th and t-11th. This consistent series was well ahead of 1985 to 1990 (t-15th, t-22nd, t-20th, t-38th, t-57th, and t-22nd) in second place in ranks exceeded for six years. 1991 at t-27th presents a seven-year interval that 2026 can erase with any finish over t-57th. (2019 was t-68th). 2007 (61st) is coolest of 2006-12 so 2006-11 or 2007-12 rank third for six-year consistency and 2006-12 is second for seven-year. Ranks for 2006-12 are t-44th, 61st, 54th, t-57th, 6th, t-59th, and 2nd. 1945-46 at 1st, 3rd are only consecutive Marches with higher ranks than 2024-25 (7, t11). 2020-21 is third (8, t-15).

<<<< APRIL RECORDS for NYC >>>> note: temp in ( ) after Low min is daily max associated if not a record low max DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ____ Low min _________ Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow Apr 01 ___ 83 1917 ____ 61 2016 _______ 34 1874 _____12 1923 (36) _____ 1.89 1993 ___ 2.32 1997 ____ 8.5 1924 Apr 02 ___ 81 1967 ____ 61 1967 _______ 35 1911 _____22 1919 (36 1st) ___ 1.93 1970 ___1.96 1970 ____ 5.5 2018 Apr 03 ___ 81 1981 ____ 59 1892, 2015 _ 34 1896 _____24 1954 (43) ______1.90 1983 ___2.42 2024^___10.0 1915 (10.2 3rd-4th) Apr 04 ___ 80 1892 ____ 62 1892 _______ 32 1879 _____20 1874 __________ 1.99 1987 ___2.48 1987 ____ 2.5 1957 _ also 2.37" rain 2d 1876 Apr 05 ___ 80 1928 ____ 60 1892 _______ 30 1881 _____20 1874 (38) _____ 2.76 1984 ___4.37 1984 ____ 6.5 1944 Apr 06 ___ 80 2023^____58 2010 _______ 31 1881 _____21 1982 (41) _______ 2.52 1886 ___2.81 1886 ____ 9.6 1982 _ non-rec 3.3",3.1" S 1938 6-7. Apr 07 ___ 92 2010 ____ 63 1991 _______ 30 1982 _____21 1982 ___________ 1.35 1899 ___2.58 1886 ____ 4.0 2003 _ also 2.50"2d 1958 Apr 08 ___ 90 1991 ____ 66 1991 _______37 1917,56,2003_25 1982___________ 1.93 1940 ___1.93 1940* ___ 4.2 1956 (1.8" S 1916, 3.3" 8th-9th) Apr 09 ___ 86 1991 ____ 68 1991 _______39 1885,1982,2003 _25 1977 (44) ____ 3.42 1980 ___3.42 1980*___ 6.4 1917 (6.5S 8th-9th) _2.1"S 1942 Apr 10 ___ 86 1922 ____ 55 1871, 2013 _ 37 1942 _____28 1974,85,97 _____ 4.31 1983 ___4.32 1983 ____ 0.5 1882 _ also 2.72" 2d r 1906 Apr 11 ___ 84 1955 ____ 61 2017 _______ 38 1882,1918 _24 1909 (39 10th) ___ 1.10 1913 ___4.31 1983**___ 0.4 1918 Apr 12 ___ 90 1977 ____ 64 2023^_______ 35 1874, 1918 _22 1874 ___________ 2.12 1933 ___2.13 1933 ____ 2.0 1918 (2.4S 2d) 1.3"S 1940 Apr 13 ___ 90 2023^____ 67 2023^_______ 35 1875, 1940 _22 1874 __________ 1.92 2020 ___2.12 1933**___ 8.7 1875 Apr 14 ___ 91 2023^____ 70 2023^_______ 41 1940, 48 __26 1950 (44 13th) _2.72 1909 ___2.76 1909 ____ 1.9 1950, 1.3 1875 (10.0 2d) Apr 15 ___ 87 1941 _____ 67 1941 _______ 41 1885, 1943 _28 1943 ____________ 7.57 2007 ___7.57 2007 ____ 0.5 1892 (1.0 2d S) Apr 16 ___ 92 2002 ____ 69 2002 _______ 39 1872 _____29 1928 ___________ 3.29 1983 ___8.47 2007 ____ Trace 2014^_ also 2.82"R 2018 Apr 17 ___ 96 2002 ____ 74 2002 _______ 33 1875 _____27 1875 ___________ 1.59 1873 ___3.29 1983**___Trace 1935^ Apr 18 ___ 96 1976 ____ 76 2002 _______ 32 1875 _____25 1875 ___________ 2.19 1924 ___2.19 1924*____ 3.0 1887 Apr 19 ___ 92 1976 ____ 68 1976 _______ 40 1875 _____22 1875 ___________ 1.96 1978 ___2.23 1924 ____ 0.8 1983 Apr 20 ___ 90 1927 ____ 67 1976 _______ 37 1904 _____24 1897 ___________ 1.96 1893 ___1.99 1978____Trace 1925,53 _ also 1.96" 2dR 1874 Apr 21 ___ 87 1923 ____ 60 1923 _______ 40 1940 _____26 1875 ___________ 2.28 1991 ___2.78 1901 ____Trace 1928,47 Apr 22 ___86 1962,73,2001_62 2016 ______40 1873 _____28 1875 ___________ 2.45 2012 ___2.67 2012 ____Trace 1929,72 Apr 23 ___ 86 2007 ____ 60 1926 _______ 40 1883 _____29 1872 ___________ 2.34 2006 ___3.57 2006 ____Trace 1906,30,63,86 Apr 24 ___ 87 2001 ____ 63 2008 _______ 44 1883, 1930 _31 1930 ___________ 2.17 1968 ___2.57 2006 ____ 0.5 1883 Apr 25 ___ 91 1915 ____ 58 1979, 82 _____ 43 1919 _____29 1919 ___________ 1.68 1945 ___2.20 1968 ____ 3.0 1875 Apr 26 ___ 92 2009 ____ 67 2009 _______ 42 1874 _____31 1919 ___________ 1.88 1889 ___2.58 1889 ____Trace 1919_ also 2.54" 2dR 1910 Apr 27 ___ 92 1915 ____ 61 1949, 2011____45 1946 _____36 1932 (48) ______ 2.04 2007 ___3.42 1889 ____Trace 1932,67 Apr 28 ___ 90 1990,2009_ 69 1990, 2009__41 1898 _____31 1874 (44) ______ 2.74 1980 ___3.07 1980 ____Trace 1874,1931 Apr 29 ___ 89 1974 ____ 64 2017 _______ 38 1874 _____32 1874 ___________ 2.46 2023^___2.85 1980 ____ 0.5 1874 _ also 2.54" 2dR 1958 Apr 30 ___ 91 1942 ____ 63 1903 _______ 45 1925 _____32 1874 ___________ 4.97 2014 ___5.00 2014^ ___ 0.0 (no traces) -- - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ notes above 3rd _ new record 2d prec (2.42" 2024) replaced 2.01" (1917) 6th _ Record high max 2023 (80F) replaces 79F from 1912, 1917 and 1947 12th _ Record high min 2023 (64F) replaces 58F (1947, 2017) 13th _ Record high max 2023 (90F) replaces 88F (1977) and min (67F) replaces 61F (1945) 14th _ Record high max 2023 (91F) replaces 85F (1941) and min (70F) replaces 60F (2019) 16th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1935, 1939, 1943, and 2014 17th _ Trace snowfalls in 1875, 1905, 1928 and 1935. 29th _ Previous record 0.91" (1909) 28th-29th _ 2.79" total rain 2023 just below 1980 maximum amount of 2.85" 29th-30th _ 4.78" two-day rainfall in 2023 after 2.32" fell on 30th (2014 retains both records for 30th). __________________________________________________________________________

-0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.7 __ -0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ -1.0 _ +2.7 __ 0.0

Later storms will probably drop 0.40" to 0.70" on average, local 1.0-1.5 possible if two cells pass a location. ... marginal severe wx, gusts to 50-60, small hail. One weak tornado in n/c NJ would not surprise.

A reminder to enter April forecasts in contest ... Don, I wonder if contest consensus is a hidden form of AI? As you know, contest consensus in past years has generally beaten random (30-year avg) by an average of 0.5 to 1.0 F and as long as I have been tracking, also beats persistence (previous month anomaly) by an even larger amount. Not saying we have the 10-15 most skilled forecasters on site in contest, but even those we do have almost all beat normal. Our most skilled long-term (yourself, wxallannj, RodneyS) average 1.0 to 1.5 F errors per month ... less skilled regulars average 1.5 to 2.0. Will AI get even that good?

Looks like an area north and n.w. of BWI to se PA will see storms develop by 6-7 p m.

Backdoor cf ... Looks likely to rebound as wf to e PA-sNJ by 18z, 925 mb front is already there now and cool air intrusion very shallow. -- may see mid 80s again later today and svr wx risk monday.

STL-PIA-ORD-SBN-IND-EVV-STL region can expect tornado watch for 15z-00z and a significant outbreak. NE IL s of ORD looks to be in danger of F2-4 development. Expect meso discussion to be issued.

Records 92 in 1907 at DCA and 90 in 1945 BWI.

Where 2025 stands against the heavy hitters ... all years currently ahead of 2025 for one or both 70+ and 80+ (NYC) as max so far is only 66F. Counting maxima of 67 to 69 as being ahead also, 2025 is right now tied with five other years for 90th place out of 157. Ranked by frequency of 80+, and to break ties, frequency of 70+ (1998 oddly had only 80+ and no 70-79 max) Ties within 70+ are broken by max and if that doesn't break tie, listed in earliest to latest chronological order. The frequency of 70+ includes 80+ (so for example 1945 had 4 in 70s and 3 in 80s) ... (edit Apr 2 ... now lists 2025 in final position, comments above before any 70+ days ... original rankings remain) Rank _MARCH of YEAR ______ 70+ ___ 80+ ___ max ____ rank if 70+ determines _01 __ 1998 ____________________5 _____ 5 _____ 86 ______4 _02 __ 1945 ____________________7 _____ 3 _____ 86 ______2 _03 __ 1990 ___________________ 4 _____ 2 _____ 85 ______7 _04 __ 1921 ____________________4 _____ 2 _____ 84 _____ 8 _05 __ 1989 ____________________4 _____ 1 _____ 82 _____ 9 _06 __ 1985 ____________________3 _____ 1 _____ 82 ______12 _07 __ 2021 ____________________2 _____ 1 _____ 82 _____ 23 _08 __ 1977 ____________________4 _____ 1 _____ 81 ______ 10 (09) _ 2025 ___________________ 2 _____ 1 _____ 81 ______ (24) _09 __ 2012 ____________________8 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 1 _10 __ 1946 ____________________ 6 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 3 _11 ___2016 ____________________ 5 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 5 _12 __ 1986 ____________________ 5 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 6 _13 __ 1987 ____________________ 4 _____ 0 _____ 76 ______ 11 _14 __ 1962 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 79 ______ 13 _15 ___1910 ____________________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 78 ______ 14 t16 __ 1913,38,2020 ___________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 77 ______t15 _19 __ 1979 ____________________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 76 _____ 18 _20 ___1949 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 75 _____ 19 t21 __ 1948, 2022 _____________ 3 _____ 0 _____ 74 _____ t20 _23 __ 1905 ____________________3 _____ 0 _____ 73 _____ 22 _24 __ 1963 ____________________2 _____ 0 _____ 79 _____ all same rank from this point down _25 __ 2007 ___________________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 78 t26 __ 1929,81,91 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 77 t29 __ 1922,88 _________________2 _____ 0 _____ 76 t31 __ 1964, 2019 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 75 t33 __ 1907,99, 2006,10,24 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 74 t38 __ 1939,61,72 ______________ 2 _____ 0 _____ 73 t41 __ 1976,95 __________________2 _____ 0 _____ 72 _43 ___1920 ____________________2 _____ 0 _____ 71 t44 ___1935, 2011 ______________ 1 _____ 0 _____ 77 t46 __ 1918,23,68 ______________ 1 _____ 0 _____ 76 _49 __ 1914 _____________________1 _____ 0 _____ 73 t50 __ 1880, 1908,43,67, 2002 _ 1 _____ 0 _____ 72 t55 __ 1890, 1925,34,55,59,94,2000 _1 _____ 0 _____ 71 t62 __ 1903,36,60,69,74,2004,09,17 _ 1 _____ 0 _____ 70 t70 __ 1878,79,97, 1919,27,28 _______1942,57,71, 2003 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 69 t80 __ 1912,54,83,93,97 ________ 0 _____ 0 _____ 68 t85 __ 1894, 1902,26,50,53,66 __ 0 _____ 0 _____ 67 t90 __ 1876,1924,26,73,2014,25 _ 0 _____ 0 _____ 66 note 2025 later went to 2 ___ 1 ___ 81 and to rank 9 in list

Above (meaning previously on page two) see scoring for March 2025 and eventually annual scoring update. Further back in Feb portion of thread, snowfall contest details have been updated to March 31st. Below, post your April forecasts ... anyone new thinking of entering, see original post for details (Jan contest).

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS wxallannj _________________197 _204 _218 __ 619 __ 238 _198 _192 __ 628 _ 1247 __162 _148 _179 __ 489 ___ 1736 ___ Consensus _________201 _210 _202 __613 __204 _254 _192__650 _ 1263 _ 123 _150 _186 __ 459 ___1722 BKViking _________________ 167 _194 _182 __ 543 __ 224 _268 _187 __ 679 _ 1222 __163 _126 _180 __ 469 ___1691 so_whats_happening ____ 215 _216 _164 __ 595 __176 _ 266 _197 __ 639 _ 1234 __ 114 _094 _208__ 416 ___1650 hudsonvalley21 __________ 169 _190 _214 __ 573 __ 144 _ 244 _195 __583 __1156 __150 _130 _184 __ 464 ___1620 Tom ______________________ 189 _186 _194 __ 569 __ 196 _190 _ 212 __ 598 _ 1167 __ 178 _140 _120 __ 438 ___1605 RJay ______________________199 _252 _240 __691 __208 _248 _161 __ 617 _ 1308 __ 069 _074 _128 __271 ___ 1579 wxdude64 ________________180 _194 _188 __ 562 __ 160_ 204 _164 __ 528 _ 1090 __ 135 _ 154 _168 __457___ 1547 RodneyS __________________188 _166 _180 __ 534 __ 142 _162 _ 162 __ 466 _ 1000 __105 _ 188 _238 __531___ 1531 DonSutherland1 __________ 145 _170 _174 __ 489 ___170 _218 _162 __ 550 _ 1039 __ 133 _138 _204 __475 ___1514 Scotty Lightning __________ 204 _182 _140 __ 526 __125 _154 _ 180 __ 459 __ 985 __ 91 _ 178 _176 __ 445 ___1430 Roger Smith _______________180 _190 _186 __ 556 __ 180 _184 _152 __ 516 __ 1072 __ 60 _094 _187 __341 ____1413 StormchaserChuck _______177 _160 _148 __ 485 __ 92 _ 230 _143 __465 __ 950 __ 137 _134 _127 __ 398 ___ 1348 ___ Normal _________________114 _ 152 _176 __ 442 __ 116 _ 64 _ 75 ___255 __697 __ 124 _170 _186__ 480 ___ 1177 maxim (2/3) _______________180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 __ 96_ 120 _ 82 __ 298 __ 794 __ 92 _ 90 _135 __ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total ... 1667 Persistence _______________ 54 _136 _186 __ 376 ___ 98 _ 90 _ 56 __ 244 _ 620 __ 12 _ 08 _126 __ 146 ____ 766 ____________________________ _____ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 tied for best score ________________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS wxallannj _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 ___ Consensus ________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ________________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 so_whats_happening ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1^ __ 1^ __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1* ___0 __ 0 ___ 1^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Tom _____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar RJay ____________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 0 __ 0 __ 1^___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Jan RodneyS ________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1* __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 1 _____0 Don Sutherland 1 ________0 __ 1^__ 1^____ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning _________2^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 ____0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith _____________ 1^ __ 2^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___1 __ 1 * __ 0 __ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1 _ Feb StormchaserChuck _____ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 _____ 0 maxim ___________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 15 of 27 ... 7 for warmest and 8 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0 Forecaster _______________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar __ Total ___ adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Scotty Lightning __________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ___3.0 - 0.0 maxim _____________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 __ 3-0 ___2.33-0.0 Roger Smith ______________ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1 __ 3-2 ___ 3.0 - 2.0 Rodney S _________________ 2-1 _ 1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 ____2.5 - 1.0 so_whats_happening _____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 BKViking __________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 Tom _______________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.5 - 0.0 Don Sutherland ___________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 wxdude64 _________________1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 ____0.33-0.0 Normal ____________________ 1-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 ___ 1-1 ____ 1.0 - 1.0 Stormchaser Chuck _______ 0-0 _0-0 _0-1 ___ 0-1 ____0.0 - 1.0 RJay _______________________ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 ___ 0-0 =========================================================

__ Final scoring for March 2025 __ scores are based on posted end of March anomalies (previous post) FORECASTER ________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west____TOTAL Tom _________________________ 39 _ 72 _ 82 __ 193 _ 92 _ 86 _ 96 __ 274 _ 467 _ 78 _ 96 _ 62 __ 236 ____ 703 StormchaserChuck1 _________ 77 _ 92 _ 84 __ 253 _ 68 _ 82 _ 84 __234 _487 _ 80 _ 82 _ 46 __208 ____ 695 Maxim _______________________ 96 _ 72 _ 66 __ 234 _ 48 _ 62 _ 82 __ 192 _ 426 _ 82 _ 84 _ 80 __246 ____ 672 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 29 _ 60 _ 86 __ 175 _ 50 _100 _ 78 __ 228 _403 _ 52 _ 64 _ 88 __ 204 ____607 so_whats_happening ________ 73 _ 96 _ 64 __ 233 _ 88 _ 88 _ 90 __ 266 _ 499 _06 _ 14 _ 68 __ 088 ____587 DonSutherland1 ______________23 _ 46 _ 48 __ 117 _ 64 _ 68 _ 72 __ 204 _ 321 _ 64 _ 90 _ 94 __ 248 ____ 569 wxallannj _____________________ 43 _ 68 _ 60 __ 171 _ 72 _ 78 _ 58 __ 208 _ 379 _ 36 _ 56 _ 80 __ 172 ____ 551 ___ Consensus _____________ 29 _ 60 _ 66 __ 155 _ 50 _ 86 _ 68 __204 _ 359 _ 36 _ 74 _ 80 __190 ____549 BKViking ______________________23 _ 60 _ 66 __ 149 _ 42 _ 92 _ 68 __ 202 _ 351 _ 40 _ 74 _ 80 __ 194 ____ 545 RJay __________________________ 43 _ 78 _ 80 __ 201 _ 42 _ 88 _ 68 __ 198 _ 399 _ 00 _ 50 _ 40__ 090 ____ 489 Scotty Lightning ______________ 10 _ 38 _ 30 __ 078 _ 05 _ 58 _ 48 __ 111 _ 189 _ 26 _100_ 100__ 226 ____ 415 wxdude64 ____________________ 06 _ 26 _ 16 __ 048 _ 08 _ 66 _ 52 __ 126 _ 174 _ 32 _ 88 _ 86 __ 206 ____ 380 RodneyS ______________________ 04 _ 32 _ 32 __ 068 _ 14 _ 20 _ 50 __ 084 _ 152 _ 26 _ 64 _ 96 __ 186 ____338 Roger Smith ___________________ 00 _ 00 _ 16 __ 016 _ 00 _ 48 _ 58 __ 106 _ 122 __ 00 _ 50 _ 94 __ 144 ____266 ___ Normal _____________________ 00 _ 18 _ 20 __ 038 _ 00 _ 28 _ 08 __ 036 _ 074 _ 16 _ 70 _ 100__ 186 ____ 260 ___ Persistence __ (Feb 2025) _ 10 _ 02 _ 00 __ 012 _ 00 _ 90 _ 56 __ 146 _ 158 __ 00 _ 08 _ 28 __ 036 ____194 ================= [] =================== Extreme Forecast Report DCA and DEN _ Warmest forecast (Maxim) wins. IAH _ Tom wins with closest forecast (2nd warmest forecast), Maxim takes a loss. PHX _ Scotty Lightning wins with closest forecast (2nd warmest), Stormchaser Chuck takes a loss. SEA _ Scotty Lightning wins with closest forecast (also Normal), Roger Smith takes a loss. rest of locations did not qualify.

Anmalies and projections: _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ (final anomaly) ____ +6.7 _ +4.1 _ +4.0 __ +5.4 _ +3.6 _ +4.6 __ +4.2 _ +1.5 __ 0.0 Snowfall contest was updated to Mar 31 back in Feb section. hudsonvalley21 currently leading in scoring for lowest total errors.

I took Don's list of snowfalls after today's date, and added cases down to 3", to find out how many followed significant early spring (late winter) warmth ... 50-50 as it appears ... TOP SNOWFALLS after March 20 ___ MAX TEMP BEFORE SNOWFALL EVENT (starting Feb 1, Jan cases noted) ______________________________________ for April events, also listed Max to Mar 31 if lower 1. 11.8", March 20-21, 1958 __________ 57 Mar 11 2. 10.2", April 3-4, 1915 _____________ 59 Mar 25 3. 10.0", April 12-14, 1875 ___________ 66 Apr 11 (60 Mar 30) 4. 9.6", April 6, 1982 ________________ 65 Apr 1 (60 Mar 30) 5. 9.0", March 22, 1967 _____________ 72 Mar 11 6. 8.5", April 1, 1924 _________________66 Mar 30 7. 8.4", March 21-22, 2018 __________ 78 Feb 21 ___ 11. Apr 2, 2018 8t. 6.5", April 8-9, 1917 ______________83 Apr 1 8t. 6.5" April 5, 1944 ________________62 Mar 25 (also Jan 27) 10. 6.4", April 6-7, 1938 ______________77 Mar 22 11. 5.5", Apr 2, 2018 ___ see 7. above 12t. 5.0", April 9, 1905 _______________73 Mar 28, 29 12t. 5.0", Mar 22, 1998 ______________ 58 Feb 26, 27 (65 Jan 8) 14t. 4.5", Mar 30, 1883 ______________ 60 (Mar 2, 18) 14t. 4.5", Mar 23-24, 1896 ___________ 57 Feb 6 ____ also 3.0" Apr 6-7 16. 4.2", April 8, 1956 ________________ 66 Apr 5 (63 Mar 5) 17. 4.1", Mar 28-29, 1996 _____________ 63 Mar 14 18t. 4.0", Mar 29, 1970 _______________ 57 Feb 22 18t. 4.0", Apr 7, 2003 ________________ 69 Mar 17, 29 20. 3.6" Mar 30-Apr 1 1890 __________ 71 Mar 12 21. 3.3", Mar 28-29, 1984 ____________ 63 Feb 24 22. 3.2", Mar 22, 1992 _______________ 64 Feb 23, Mar 9 23t. 3.0", Apr 25, 1875 ___ see 3 above 23t. 3.0", Apr 18, 1887 _______________ 79 Apr 10 (63 Feb 11) ============================= (25 cases in all, 22 different years, so 1 in 7 freq for 3.0" snowfalls after today's date

A bit late but Tuesday (18th) marked the 100th anniversary of the tri-state tornado (1925).

84F at STL today, still feel 80 is possible in parts of region Wed. Can see some sea breeze potential to early afternoon (and all day east of Bay).

With the SW wind it probably will soar towards 80F in places.

I am seeing 85-90 potential next week. This weekend closer to 75 F with more cloud and a bit of an east wind component, but the mid-week second warmup looks more direct with a southwesterly flow. What's the earliest 90F at various local stations? Extreme warmth in early spring is often correlated with below normal temperatures in late spring and early summer. For example in 1945 it was warmer from mid-March to mid-April than it was from mid-May to mid-June in a lot of places in the northeastern states and Ontario.

You guys will hit 85-90F next week the way things are looking. Even so, it could in theory snow in April after some warmth in March. I believe it snowed in Apr 1938 after very warm readings in March.

I posted info about 2d 6.0" snowfalls in those intervals, the 1949-56 interval ends in Jan 1954 for 2d snow (9th-10th), and the 1917-1921 interval ends in Feb 1920, the other intervals all appear to survive intact (no interior 2d 6.0" totals), albeit some very close to 6.0" values. The post on this was back around midnite.