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Roger Smith

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Everything posted by Roger Smith

  1. Roger Smith

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    El Nino may not have an open stage, the cold anomaly since the summer season in central Canada is quite persistent and Hudson Bay is considerably colder than usual with prospects of early freeze-up, this normally correlates with below normal temperatures in the Great Lakes and inland northeast, so that I'm speculating the El Nino may not always be dominant in the west-central regions but instead there may be a persistent frontal boundary across the central Rockies oriented NW-SE, and confluent flow heading for Atlantic Canada. Given all of that set-up, the storm track may tend to run across the Tennessee Valley into southern Virginia fairly frequently. So I think it could be a better than average snowfall winter with slightly below normal temperatures in the Mid-Atlantic. I don't foresee long intervals of torch, nor do I see cold shots going so far south that you end up in cold, dry either (the El Nino should at least guarantee a moist south and southeast US). With any luck, one or two decent snowfalls this winter. When the contest comes around, I am going to go something like 50% above normal, nothing spectacular like 2010, but solid.
  2. Final scoring for October 2018 Scores are based on the final anomalies in the previous post. Color codes from warmest and coldest forecasts are preserved. If either becomes high score, it is changed to bold type. Otherwise the high scores are in black bold type. Raw scores before late penalties are in orange, the contest scores are in the second line for those forecasters. FORECASTER ______________DCA_NYC_BOS___east___ORD_ATL_IAH__central, c/e total__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___all nine Scotty Lightning ____________ 58 _ 96_ 98___ 252 ___ 96 _ 38 _ 96 ___ 230 __482 ____56 _ 32 _ 80 ___ 168 ____650 hudsonvalley21 _____________82 _ 58 _ 72 ___ 212 ___ 80 _ 72 _ 96 ___ 248__ 460 ____ 56 _ 30 _ 96 ___182 ____ 642 DonSutherland.1 ____________92 _ 50 _ 68 ___ 210 ___ 58 _ 90 _100 ___248__ 458 ____ 42 _ 36 _ 88 ___166 ____ 624 wxallannj __________________90 _ 50 _ 58 ___ 198 ___ 74 _ 82 _ 90 ___ 246 __ 444 ____ 54 _ 50 _ 70 ___ 174 ____ 618 RodneyS __________________ 92 _ 40 _ 38 ___ 170 ___ 46 _ 80 _ 72 ___ 198 __ 368 ____ 96 _64 _ 86___ 246 ____ 614 Stebo _____________________88 _ 62 _ 50 ___ 200 ___ 74 _ 58 _ 96 ___ 228 __ 428 ____ 76 _ 62 _ 44 ___ 182 ____ 610 ___ Normal ________________38 _ 84 _ 92 ___ 214 ___ 96 _ 18 _ 84___ 198 __ 412 ____ 66 _ 42 _ 80 ___ 188 ___ 600 jaxjagman ________________ 80 _ 72 _ 68 ___ 220 ___ 70 _ 60 _ 98 ___ 228 __ 448 ____ 88 _ 54 _ 76 ___ 218 _ 666 ____________ (-10%) _______72 _ 65 _ 61 ___ 198 ___ 63 _ 54 _ 88 ___ 205 __ 403 ____ 79 _ 49 _ 68 ___ 196 ____ 599 __ Consensus ______________ 94 _ 56 _ 50 ___ 200 ___ 74 _ 60 _ 96 ___ 230 __ 430 ____ 56 _ 42 _ 70 ___ 168 ____ 598 BKViking __________________ 94 _ 56 _ 46 ___ 196 ___ 88 _ 50 _ 96 ___ 234 __ 430 ____ 60 _ 56 _ 50 ___ 166 _ 596 _____________ (-2%) _______92 _ 55 _ 45 ___ 192 ___ 86 _ 49 _ 94 ___ 229 __ 421 ____ 59 _ 55 _ 49 ___ 163 ____ 584 dmillz25 ___________________88 _ 52 _ 38 ___ 178 ___ 74 _ 48 _ 96 ___ 218 __ 396 ____ 86 _ 62 _ 40 ___ 188 ____ 584 Tom _____________________ 98 _ 58 _ 46 ___ 202 ___ 64 _ 58 _ 94 ___ 216 __ 418 ____ 62 _ 38 _ 62 ___ 162 ____ 580 wxdude64 _________________48 _ 90 _ 82 ___ 220 ___ 62 _ 54 _ 86 ___ 202__ 422 ____ 54 _ 20 _ 52 ___ 126 ____ 548 RJay _____________________ 98 _ 56 _ 48 ___ 202 ___ 64 _ 68 _ 76 ___ 208 __ 410 ____ 46 _ 42 _ 60 ___ 148 _ 558 _____________ (-6%) _______92 _ 53 _ 45 ___ 190 ___ 60 _ 64 _ 71 ___ 195 __ 385 ____ 43 _ 39 _ 56 ___ 138 ____ 523 Roger Smith _______________ 82 _ 46 _ 48 ___ 176 ___ 44 _ 92 _ 66 ___ 202 __ 378 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 90 ___ 098 ____ 476 Regional Rumble -- final scoring for October 2018 REGION ______________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL ___ (annual) Mid Atlantic ____________ 220 _____ 202 _____ 246 ______ 668 _____ 6174 (2) Philadelphia ____________ 252 _____ 230 _____ 168 ______ 650 _____ 5882 (3) New York City __________ 212 _____ 248 _____ 188 ______ 648 _____ 6290 (1) TN Valley ______________ 198 _____ 205 _____ 196 ______ 599 _____ 5112 (5) Great Lakes / Ohio Valley __200 _____ 228 _____ 182 ______ 610 _____ 4645 (6) ___ Normal ____________ 214 ______198 _____ 188 ______ 600 _____ 4656 (6) ___ Consensus __________ 200 _____ 230 _____ 168 ______ 598 _____ 5261 (5) Central + Western _______ 176 _____ 202 _____ 098 ______ 476 _____ 5714 (4)
  3. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    So the project is to turn this into a cat-2 in a couple of days. Good luck with that. Maybe no surge guy can assist. (I noticed that no surge guy went from no surge to "won't last long" which you have to wonder, how brief is an okay surge?). I hope those Tyndall folks can back up their 150-170 mph estimates, not because I doubt them at all but because it will be helpful for the eventual decisions about how strong this really was at landfall. Thinking 70% likely cat-4 and 30% possible cat-5 somewhere in the zone, but we may never know for sure.
  4. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    This tweet is interesting, wonder if we will see any proof of this assertion:
  5. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    Going to post this in the main thread too, cannot comment on the accuracy but very interesting: (from twitter, this didn't post quite the way it looks on my reply screen)
  6. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    A footnote, the 2000 Michael was no dud either, it became a cat-2 hurricane just before hitting isolated villages on the south coast of Newfoundland and it did some damage there, I don't recall all the details but if that same storm had hit Long Island then this would have had a different name than Michael.
  7. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    That "no surge" guy must have read comments somewhere on the internet that Panama City would be spared a storm surge, and thought that would apply as far south as Mexico Beach but in all probability the storm surge was something like 3' around Panama City, 10' just a little south of Tyndall and appeared to be 12-15 feet at least in Mexico Beach. There would have been a horrendous result if Michael had been even five miles to the left of its actual path, ten to fifteen would have been worst case scenario (for metro Panama City). That's the only good thing we can say about this strongest of all cat-2 hurricanes.
  8. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    SENC, all of the data-based arguments you have presented fall into one of two categories: (a) the data were incomplete due to instrument failure before the strongest winds, or (b) the data are correct but are taken from locations that nobody claims to have been in the strongest wind zone. I'm surprised you haven't figured this out for yourself, even as dim an intellect as my own managed to reach these conclusions. To be more specific, it is quite plausible that winds continued to increase at Tyndall AFB and the Panama City buoy, review your own data and you'll see that both cut out and stopped reporting. And the Panama City Beach and Tyndall Tower (located south of Cape San Blas) data are correct but pressures will show you how far they were outside the core. I don't see any evidence that you're disputing the central pressure being around 920 mb at landfall. So how could that possibly be a cat-2? Then there's the entire issue of no data yet known at least for wind speeds between Tyndall AFB and Appalachicola. For that we have only secondary evidence such as the widespread damage at Mexico Beach.
  9. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    Near the time of landfall there was a 35 mb pressure difference between the two reporting buoys at Panama City and Panama Beach, located maybe 10 miles apart. Tyndall AFB was reporting 924 mb when the station went off-line (with northeast winds gusting to 119 knots). If the usual ratio of RFQ to back side prevailed, Mexico Beach or some location a bit closer to Panama City possibly would have been 1.3 to 1.5 times that with the same pressure. (1.3 x 120 = 156 knots, about 175 mph right?). But I suspect the ratio may have been more like 1.1 in this storm due to unequal radar signatures indicating squallier conditions on the normally weaker side, so perhaps 132 knots instead. I don't think we will ever know except from secondary evidence and that will include damage that might have been partially due to wind and partially due to storm surge. In any case, the 918 mb pressure tells most of the story. Also that 119 knots may not have been the peak wind gust at Tyndall, although it occurred quite close to the maximum radar wind potential just as the eyewall was coming on shore.
  10. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    This discussion about the real wind speeds (on land) is pointless because (a) instruments failed before those might have been recorded at some locations, and (b) we have yet to see any documented evidence of actual wind speeds near Mexico Beach. There may be none available. Sometimes an assertion can be true for unexpected reasons too. If there's a 12-15 foot storm surge with waves added, the maximum winds will be dislocated higher by at least 12-15 feet. Look at the readings from any ocean buoy in a passing eyewall situation. They rarely get anywhere near the dropsonde measured wind speeds within 50 feet of the mean sea surface, partly because of the low exposure altitudes and partly because of the wave environment. It's hard to get a 145 mph wind between two 30' waves. This was no cat-2 but a sustained cat-3 will do considerable damage, a lot of the outcome depends on duration rather than peak gusts. I was living near a tornado path about thirty years ago and watched very brief gusts hit trees near my home that seemed to be EF-2 (like the tornado itself) but they only lasted a few seconds and the trees were not destroyed as they would have been if the gusts had continued for 2-3 minutes.
  11. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The radar loops (and this was apparent in real time also) indicate that the usual RFQ stronger than opposite side of eyewall may have been modified somewhat in this hurricane because the radar intensity was always quite a bit higher over Panama City than on the Mexico Beach side. That is not to say wind speeds were higher but I have to wonder if they weren't close to being equal due to the squally nature of the stronger echoes on the so-called weak side. Also the damage in Mexico Beach may be a combined result of wind and storm surge. I think any speculation that the hurricane was less than cat-4 at landfall is based on assumptions that the wind speeds recorded are the main test, but of course if wind recordings go down due to equipment failure, that argument is pointless. The only real debate will be whether the storm attained cat-5 at any point near or during landfall. That was about the same debate that occurred for Patricia in southern Mexico a few years ago, with mixed opinions. Anyway, Josh was in Tacloban and at the landfall site of Patricia, so he's seen two of the strongest landfalling hurricanes of recent years. If he's impressed, that's good enough for me.
  12. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    That main thread is like this one, only longer with a few interruptions from people who seem to be meteorologists or something.
  13. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I guess it's not really air B n B if you arrive by water.
  14. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    In a recent ob, PAC1 buoy pressure was about 35 mb lower than PAB located about ten miles to its west (roughly 930 vs 965). Wind sensors failed at 90 knots at PAC1 but continued in the 50-80 knot range further west (direction there being NNW).
  15. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    As per Google earth, Mexico Beach is a 2-3 mile long strip of flat land with a population of about 2 or 3 thousand people, and the only building of any size appears to be the "El Governor" Hotel right on the coast, a four storey concrete structure that, based on previous Josh encounters with eyewalls (e.g. Patricia) is almost certain to get its roof blown off. There are several mobile home parks also. A 15 foot storm surge would likely go right through this location as the general elevation seems to be lower than 12 feet. I hope most of the people in that town evacuated yesterday. An Andrew-Homestead outcome is certainly possible around there.
  16. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Bookmark this location for the late overnight hours https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039
  17. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Center appears to be due south of Fort Walton Beach on radar and motion is due north in past hour.
  18. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Eye now barely in range of NW FL radar ... my guess for landfall is directly over Panama City or possibly just southeast but northwest of Mexico Beach. (17z) https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=EVX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
  19. Contest update: The previous post contained provisional scoring that was based on consensus forecasts for October (2 1 1 ) and Nov-Dec (1 0 0 ). This has since been adjusted to 3 2 1 for Oct. (edit 28th). As of the last hour, the October provisional is the actual count with Michael attaining major status and Nadine a new tropical storm. The current seasonal total is 14 7 2. (edit this has now reached 15 8 2) ... The operating provisional seasonal total is therefore 15 7 2 (edit this has now reached 16 8 2). As explained in the post above, September went to 7 4 1 when Leslie attained hurricane intensity on Oct 2 (contest rules keep all status changes with the month of first naming). However, an alternate scoring table will be provided with the status changes in their actual months. That would make September 7 3 1 and October 2 2 1. (edit now 3 3 1) The effects on the top seven (since expanded to 15) ranked scores are shown below the scoring table but that table is the official contest scoring (estimated for now). From now to end of contest, all changes to the scoring will be based on actual rather than projected events with the exception that we will carry 1 0 0 for Nov-Dec until such time as it either becomes exceeded or appears more likely to turn out 0 0 0 (a change that I might make after Nov 15th if it seemed appropriate). Then the contest runs officially to end of December.
  20. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    27' waves for past several hours at 42003 (approx 80 nm east of center with 40-60 knot SE winds). Also 17' swell reported before readings ended.
  21. Roger Smith

    Michael Banter Thread

    Doubt there is any chance of a direct hit there, but some rather high tides likely on Wednesday and perhaps tropical storm conditions briefly. Think the range of plausible landfalls is Mobile Bay to about Cedar Key, my guess being Panama City almost directly.
  22. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I see those extra upper air soundings to the north of the hurricane on the 00z CMC maps. The 500 mb obs are all more or less -5 C and nearly calm slight east wind flow. The recent readings at buoy 46003 show steadily rising wind but steady pressure. These are symptoms of a hurricane about to undergo rapid intensification, I believe -- don't be surprised if we have a cat-4 on our hands by late Tuesday.
  23. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Think it's a German product, bias is somewhat high on wind speeds in European storms, would take 10% off its predicted wind speeds as a rough correction. Let's hope the NAM is not going to verify.
  24. Roger Smith

    Major Hurricane Michael

    This buoy will take a pounding from intensifying Michael tomorrow: https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 Note that new moon is 04z tonight (9th) which means landfall within 36-42h of the tidal peak, should underscore the tidal surge concerns. I suspect rapid intensification is likely seeing how well the cyclone came together despite eastern half impacting considerable land disruption of western Cuba. So back to that buoy, we'll get a direct read on how that goes as the center should go just to its west within 18-24 hours.
  25. The anomaly trackers and predictions ... updated regularly (next after 24d, then after 28th, end of month) ... color coded actual and forecast entries can be directly compared for accuracy. _________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Anomalies 8th _____ (7d) ___________ +11.1_ +7.9_ +4.2 __ +7.1_+12.5_ +6.8 ___ +0.6_ --6.1_ --2.6 15th ____ (14d) ____________+9.4_ +7.1_ +4.9 __ +4.2_ +9.5_ +5.9 ___ --7.2_ --6.8_ --0.6 22nd ____ (21d) ___________ +6.2_ +3.4_ +2.8 __ +0.3_ +7.1_ +2.0 ___ --5.1_ --5.6_ +0.4 25th ____ (24d) ___________ +4.8_ +2.4_ +1.7 __ --0.1_ +5.9_ +0.6 ___ --3.6_ --4.6_ +0.3 28th ____ (28d) ___________ +3.4_ +1.0_ +0.7 __ --0.3_ +4.2_ +0.6 ___ --3.6_ --4.6_ +0.3 7-day NWS forecast values 8th _____ (p14d) __________ +8.0_ +6.5_ +5.0 __ +5.0_ +9.0_ +5.0 ___ --6.5_ --7.0_ --1.8 15th ____ (p21d) __________ +4.6_ +3.3_ +1.5 __ +0.2_ +6.0_ +2.0 ___ --5.5_ --6.0_ +1.6 22nd____ (p28d) __________ +2.5_ +0.5_ +0.1 __--1.2_ +3.5 _ +0.3 ___ --1.9_ --3.5_ +0.9 adding GFS model output to 24th 8th _____ (p24d) __________ +4.0_ +3.0_ +2.5 __ +3.0_ +5.0_ +1.0 ___ --2.5_ --3.0_ --0.5 adding GFS model output when required (after 7d NWS) to give end of month provisional 15th ____ (p31d) __________ +2.0_ +1.0__ 0.0 __ --2.0_ +2.0_ --1.0 ___ --3.0_ --3.5_ +1.0 22nd ____ (p31d) __________ +2.0__ 0.0_ --0.5 __ --1.5_ +3.0__ 0.0 ___ --3.0_ --3.5_ +1.0 25th ____ (p31d) __________ +3.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 __ --1.0_ +3.5_ +0.5 ___ --2.0_ --2.5_ +0.5 29th ____ (p31d) __________ +3.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ 0.0_ +4.0_ +1.0 ___ --2.0_ --3.0_ +0.5 __ FINAL ANOMALIES __ _______ ( 31d ) __________ +3.1_+0.8_+0.4 __ +0.2_+4.1_+0.8 ___ --1.7_--2.9_+1.0 (8th) _ Anomalies will peak for ORD and ATL around 10th then fall off sharply there, west has started quite cold but looks to warm somewhat in the third week, so all of these rather large anomalies currently and to the middle of the month will possibly look much less impressive towards end of month, question being can any of them be reversed? The seasonal max contest is probably done now, although ATL had a few days recently that almost matched theirs. Results of seasonal max contest can be found in the September thread. (15th) _ The second week NWS predictions were quite good and despite a large change in the regime the average error was only 0.7 deg. This coming week will remain quite chilly in most of the locations with SEA enjoying a warm spell. The GFS output for the period 22nd to 31st looked relatively cold in general and the values reached by the 21st will continue to fall steadily, the provisionals at end of month are somewhat conservative in that regard (it could be colder than shown in other words). SEA should remain a bit on the warmer side of average for that last portion of the month and hold on to their small positive anomaly built up this week. If these provisionals hold close to reality, the contest will be wide open with the people making the biggest upward moves currently in the middle to lower half of the table. Will predict that it will be very close from top to bottom of the tables by end of this month. (22nd) _ The third week NWS predictions were very good at measuring the rapid changes, with an average error of only 0.67 deg (SEA may have come in a bit lower due to persistent fog near the end of the week, other nearby stations probably had smaller errors). The projections look about the same as earlier but various values of end of month provisionals have been tweaked slightly. Scores will be changed later today. When finished, the annual scoring summary will appear too. It has become a very tight race to the finish especially for the "all nine" portion. (25th) _ This update can be compared directly to the 16-day forecasts made from NWS then GFS (8-16d) back on the 8th. These fared quite well mostly, except for ORD which has cooled off a lot more than predicted. The average error was 1.23 F deg, without ORD it was 0.89. The provisionals for end of month have (except for SEA) have been raised by half to one degree, the main reason being a combination of slight underperformance of cold to date combining with somewhat warmer temperatures than previously expected due to the coastal storm (closer to normal although still running a bit cool). SEA will be dropped by half a degree. Scoring tables updated. Next update after 28 days on 29th. (29th) _ The weekly forecasts were fairly close at 0.81 average error. Central stations are all running a bit warmer than predicted and there are warmer days at the end of the month in east and central so have adjusted the central provisionals and maintained the eastern. DEN on track, today is warm but next two days not so much, should finish near the -2.0 earlier shown. PHX may be cooler by half a degree and SEA could drop as much as needed for the 0.5 although perhaps 0.7 most likely now (won't change tables for that small an adjustment to all but two scores in same direction). ... these changes are now in the scoring tables. (Nov 1) _ Final anomalies are now all posted at the end of the table above. Scoring will be finalized by about 18z.
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