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Roger Smith

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  1. Roger Smith

    2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    I think we can declare this contest final although a slight chance remains for snow at MQT into early June, and so these are the current standings (see posts that I made on March 2 and March 7, edited since, for all the details, and pretty much ignore anything I posted in April because those situations got demolished by the freak heavy snowfall event). There were three ways that I scored the contest. Going by the main contest scoring function, the winner is madwx with a current total error of 159.0" and 12.7" left to use up at MQT (in other words, madwx stays ahead by at least current margin through the first 12.7" of snow that might fall at MQT later, and that seems higher than what will probably happen there). The second and third place error totals belong to 1986-2015 "normal" (average -- 164.6") and contest average (166.0") values. It should be noted that 1986-2015 normal has a mathematical chance to finish lower than madwx if more than 16.2" of snow falls at MQT because that non-forecast has 24.5" inches to use up. But ignoring those two, actual second place goes to Thomp2mp with error of 171.9" -- Thomp2mp cannot catch madwx using any outcome at MQT since there is only 7.2" left in their account and so they would start to fall further behind after that 7.2". Third place at the moment belongs to Slowpoke (winner last two contests), and their total error is 176.5" with 24.7" left to use at MQT. If that much snow actually falls at MQT, slowpoke could win since their total would then fall to 151.8" while madwx would go to 158.3" -- the break-even point is 20.8" at MQT. However, 1986-2015 normal would still be lower at any point than slowpoke who can only get 0.4" closer between 24.5" and 24.7" snowfall at MQT. Fourth place goes to hawkeye with 185.1" (29.7" credit at MQT) which means that hawkeye could also pass Thomp2m and madwx if most of that credit were to materialize at MQT, and can even catch slowpoke as the final 5.0" of the credit if used would result in a gain of 10.0" while starting from 8.4" behind. There would need to be 28.9" of snow at MQT to create a tie then anything more would move hawkeye ahead of slowpoke. You can see the rest of the standings in the March 7th post. Cmillzz, Stebo and VPBob21 are the next in line and none of them have any MQT leverage, in fact cmillzz and Stebo are already gaining errors with any new MQT snow. Then we find Michigansnowfreak with a large enough MQT credit to move from 8th place to almost any position ahead except first or second, if by some miracle 48" of snow falls at MQT. That would not be quite enough to overtake hawkeye or slowpoke on the rebound. However, I don't foresee MQT getting more than perhaps 3 to 5 inches more snow if even that, so all of this discussion is probably academic. As for any snow at other locations, seems very unlikely but in any case GRB and MSP have no credits left for anyone except IndTenn who is too far down the standings to benefit much even if all that available credit were to materialize. I did mention scoring the contest without YXU since we had to use an alternative location but most of the errors at YXU are small anyway and I don't distrust the numbers we were able to obtain from a nearby location. ---- ---- ---- ---- A second metric that I used to score the contest was average percentage error of the 20 forecasts. This is not quite the same as total error because if you made a lot of good forecasts for heavy snowfall locations and not so good at light snowfall locations, you might be down the list comparatively speaking. The best performance (so far) in average percentage error (table two in the March 7th post) belongs to hawkeye (19.1%) then madwx at 21.9%. Next is slowpoke (22.2%, ahead of 1986-2015 normal at 22.3%), then contest average at 22.6%, fourth place in the actual contest for cmillzz at 24.0% then Thomp2mp at 24.2% and DAFF at 25.2%. Then a third way to look at the results was to add up rankings for each location, as in golf, low score wins. That method shows hawkeye and slowpoke tied at an average rank of 5.65 and madwx close behind at 5.85. Finally, in terms of closest forecasts to actuals, DAFF had four out of twenty and madwx had three. You can see the rest of the list in that same March 7th post. There were some ties involved so the numbers could be shown differently if we gave decimal values for ties (0.5 or even 0.33). The only one of these subject to change would be MQT. This is currently my lone closest to the pin as I have 0.7" left to give. The closest forecast above current value would be Thomp2mp who is 7.2" above, so the lead changes hands when MQT gets to 179.3" which is 4.0" above where it stands now. I wouldn't be too surprised if that happened. I will keep an eye on freak late snowfalls if any and declare the contest entirely done on June 30th. But I wouldn't expect much to change now.
  2. First report on May anomalies with projections ... _______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _8th _______ (7 d) ______ +8.8_+11.8_+10.5 ___+11.1_+3.6_ +2.8 ___ +3.1_ +0.5 _+5.7 _8th _____( p14th NWS) __+7.0_ +8.0 _ +7.0 ___ +7.5 _+6.0_ +3.6 ___ +4.0 _ +0.5 _+4.0 _8th _____( p24th GFS) __ +4.5_ +5.0 _ +3.5 ___ +4.5 _+5.0_ +4.0 ___ +2.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0 ________________________________________________________________ There is little sign of any further snowfall at DEN so with all forecasters holding at least 14" in reserve there, contest outcome is likely sealed. I will check the tables back in the February thread and move the final results here in a day or two. DonSutherland.1 is leading with hudsonvalley21 in second place. A reminder, anyone who did not give seasonal max predictions has until end of 10th to edit them in or post, then a table of seasonal max forecasts will appear.
  3. Was that for changes or the max temps? Normally for intended edits I allow them if a moderator can verify and you're a moderator so ... I trust you (thanks for pinning the thread by the way).
  4. Table of forecasts May 2018 FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA afewUniverses bn __MA __________ +4.0 _+3.5 _+3.2 ___ +2.0 _+3.0 _+2.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _--0.5 Roger Smith ___ C + W___________+3.6 _+3.4 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+2.5 _+2.8 ___ +2.0 _+2.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland.1__NYC ___________+3.0 _+3.1 _+2.7 ___ +2.8 _+0.8 _+0.3 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.6 Tom _________ PHL ___ (-2%) ____+2.5 _+2.1 _+2.2 ___ +1.1 _+1.1 _+0.8 ___ +0.8 _+0.9 _--0.8 wxallannj _____ NYC _____________+2.2 _+2.8 _+1.7 ___ +2.2 _+0.5 _+0.3 ___ +0.8 _+0.8 _--0.3 jaxjagman _____TNV ____________ +2.1 _+2.3 _+1.1 ___ +1.9 _+2.3 _+0.9 ___ --0.4 _+0.7 _--0.3 wxdude64 ____ MA ___ (-1%) _____+2.1 _+1.6 _+2.3 ___ +0.9 _+0.8 _+1.1 ___ +0.3 _--0.2 _--0.3 Orangeburgwx _ SE ___ (-3%) _____+2.1 _+1.5 _+1.3 ___ +0.8 _+2.6 _+0.9 ___ --0.3 _+2.0 _+0.2 BKViking ______ NYC ____________ +2.0 _+2.2 _+1.8 ___ +1.0 _+2.2 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+0.8 _+1.3 ___ Consensus __________________+2.0 _+1.8 _+1.5 ___ +1.3 _+1.6 _+0.9 ___ +0.8 _+1.0 __0.0 Stebo ________ GL/OV ___________ +2.0 _+1.5 _+0.7 ___+1.5 _+2.2 _+0.5 ___ --1.1 _--1.1 _--2.0 so_whats_happening_PA/NY_ (-2%)_+1.8 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___ +1.8 _+1.7 _+2.2 ___ +1.4 _+2.3 _--0.5 hudsonvalley21 __ NYC ___________+1.6 _+1.8 _+1.2 ___ +1.1 _+1.6 _+1.9 ___ +0.9 _+2.1 _+0.1 mappy _________ MA ____________+1.6 _+1.0 _+0.2 ___ +1.3 _+2.0 _+0.3 ___ --0.9 _--0.3 _--1.0 RJay __________ NYC ____________+1.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+0.5 __0.0 ___ --0.5 _+1.5 __0.0 RodneyS ________ MA ___________ +1.5 _+1.1 _+1.5 ___ --0.3 __0.0 _+0.7 ___ +2.0 _+2.4 _+2.6 dmillz25 ________ NYC ___________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ +1.5 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ --1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 Scotty Lightning __ PHL ___________+1.0 _+0.5 _+0.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Normal _________________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ________________________________________________________________________________________ ** 17 forecasters, consensus is median (9th ranked forecast) ** color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts, where Normal is bold, it is colder than lowest forecast or tied. A table of entries for the Seasonal max contest will be posted around May 11th, you have until end of 10th to edit or post those. Good luck (nice to see only very small late penalties all round this month) April results are posted ... Regional Rumble is very close. ______ ____ ___ __ _ *** *** _ __ ___ ____ ______ Snowfall contest results are probably final now since all entrants have at least 14" left for DEN before increasing errors, will be moving that table from the February thread to this one soon.
  5. Extreme forecast update It is the same story as most months, fortune favored the brave ... but you have to know which way to go (said IAH +4.5 zero points) ... DCA _ Finished -1.9, RodneyS (-1.7) win, RJay (-2.5) loss. NYC _ Finished -3.6, a win for RJay (-3.0). BOS _ Finished -2.8, another win for RJay (-3.0) as dmillz25 (-2.0) and Stebo (-2.0) now out of the tie. ORD (finished -7.7) is a romp for RodneyS who is at -5.0. ATL (finished -2.2) is a win for Roger Smith at -1.2. IAH (finished -2.6) is a lame duck "extreme forecast" in that nobody went negative, RJay and Normal split this one at 0.0. DEN and SEA did not go extreme. PHX (finished +4.7) is a win for new forecast contest entrant Cerakoter1984 who predicted +3.7. Extreme Forecasts wins and losses Roger Smith __________ 5-0 RodneyS _____________ 4-1 __ Normal ____________ 4-1 Orangeburgwx ________ 3-0* wxallannj _____________3-0 RJay ________________ 3-1 so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 wxdude64 ____________ 2-0 DonSutherland1 ________1-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1 cerakoter1984 _________ 1-0 * no decision (Mar for IAH)
  6. The regional rumble at last update from provisional March scoring looked like a fairly close race, and I think all regular entrants are still in the mix for the individual 2018 contest. So make a note with this long Easter weekend ahead to enter before the late penalties start to dig in (reduced this year to 1% every four hours for first 36h, so if you wake up Sunday and remember, you're not looking at much of a penalty). As always, we're predicting the temperature anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 averages or "normals" if anything in this world can be described as normal. _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ______ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Good luck, I plan to publicize the contest by booting the regional announcement threads on Thursday 29th or Friday 30th.
  7. May __ +3.6 _ +3.4 _ +4.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 ___ +2.0 _ +2.3 _ +1.4 max ___100 __ 98 ___ 100 ___ 98 __ 102 __ 104 ____ 107 __ 122 __ 93
  8. May thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51230-may-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-and-annual-max-temp-contest/ or you can enter directly in this thread. Stebo has been the entire team so far for GL/OV, give him a hand one way or the other.
  9. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  10. May thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51230-may-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-and-annual-max-temp-contest/ or you can enter directly in this thread. RodneyS did well in April and boosted the region to first place (narrow margin over NYC) in the rumble. Wxdude64 and mappy are also doing well in the contest.
  11. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  12. May thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51230-may-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-and-annual-max-temp-contest/ or you can enter directly in this thread.
  13. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest has become more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51001-march-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-and-regional-rumble/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 2nd at 18z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  14. May thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51230-may-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-and-annual-max-temp-contest/ or you can enter directly in this thread.
  15. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  16. May thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51230-may-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-and-annual-max-temp-contest/ or you can enter directly in this thread. Your region is well represented by Scotty Lightning and Tom, currently fourth but not far behind in the rumble, and Scotty is top individual forecaster through April.
  17. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  18. May thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51230-may-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-and-annual-max-temp-contest/ or you can enter directly in this thread. (NYC and Mid Atlantic now locked in a titanic struggle, see April thread for current rumble standings)
  19. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  20. May thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51230-may-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-and-annual-max-temp-contest/ or you can enter directly in this thread. Jaxjagman has been carrying the load for this region in the rumble, he might appreciate a bit of help.
  21. May thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51230-may-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-and-annual-max-temp-contest/ or you can enter directly in this thread. Your rep so_whats_happening has been keeping this region in the mix for the rumble, a bit of help might be appreciated.
  22. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  23. May thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51230-may-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-and-annual-max-temp-contest/ or you can enter directly in this thread. We are in third place in the rumble, partly because other C+W members entered to boost my contributions. I need the help.
  24. The monthly temperature forecast contest has been a feature of this forum and its predecessor (Eastern) for a long time. But it's hosted in the general interest forum and so as host, I would like to broaden the appeal and get more people involved in the contest. To help with that, the contest will now be more than just an individual competition, although that part remains. Now it's also going to take best scores from each regional forum and determine a champion in the "Regional Rumble." You can enter both here in this thread, or over at the home thread which is here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50671-january-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-regional-rumble-begins/ The contest asks you to predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations: (eastern) DCA, NYC, BOS (central) ORD, ATL, IAH (western) DEN, PHX, SEA The regional aspect will take best scores for each of those three groups of three stations, and that may come from different contributors within the regional forum's entrants. And if you enter all twelve months of the year you will be participating in the individual contest as well. All rules can be reviewed over at the thread linked above, but basically you get a score out of 100 based on how close you are to the actual anomaly (relative to 1981-2010). You lose 2 points (in most cases) for each 0.1 deg error. Months that are either more anomalous than +/- 5 degrees or that score worse than 60 for top score go to secondary scoring rules that avoid a lot of zero scores for different forecasts. So with that said, here's your easy portal for entering the forecast contest, you don't have to go "over there" but instead you can stay in the comfort of your own regional forum and enter from here. I will collect all forecasts posted here and reproduce them in a table of forecasts. This thread will stay open with titles changing as we approach monthly deadlines. Usually the forecasts are due by 06z of the 1st of each month with time penalties (1% per 4h late for 36h, then 1% per hour). This first time out with New Years and the storm interests, the deadline is shifted to the 4th at 08z. If you enter, thanks and good luck! (this thread will appear in all regional forums)
  25. --- -- <<<<==== Annual Updated Scoring Jan - Apr 2018 ====>>>> -- ---- Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ east ____ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores ___Normal _________234 _207 _269 ____ 710____ 242 _215 _077 ____ 534 ___1244 ___ 000 101 .0.0 wxdude64 _________ 240 _219 _245 ____ 704____ 168 _211 _091 ____ 470 ___ 1174 ___ 110 000 .1.0 hudsonvalley21 _____ 211 _204 _208 ____ 623 ____ 121 _231 _195 ____ 547 ___ 1170 ___ Roger Smith ________244 _216 _216 ____ 676 ____ 187 _260 _046 ____ 493 ___ 1169 ___ 111 020 .1.0 so_whats_happening _143 _166 _240 ____ 549 ____ 208 _237 _147 ____ 592___ 1141 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB Scotty Lightning (SD) _207 _187 _266 ____ 660 ____ 217 _167 _087 ____ 471 ___ 1131 ___ 000 100 .0.1 RJay ______________166 _202 _231 ____ 599 ____ 107 _236 _179 ____ 522 ___ 1121 ___ 011 001 .1.0 __ APR jaxjagman _________ 192 _154 _244 ____ 590 ____ 124 _218 _148 ____ 490 ___ 1080 ___ 001 000 .0.0 DonSutherland.1 ___ 190 _170 _198 ____ 558 ____ 129 _246 _143 ____ 518 ___ 1076 ___ RodneyS __________ 196 _174 _184 ____ 554 ____ 171 _224 _110 ____ 505 ___ 1059 ___ 200 200 .0.2 __ MAR ___Consensus ______ 181 _171 _216 ____ 568 ____ 137 _210 _127 ____ 474 ___ 1042 ___ Stebo _____________ 156 _152 _214 ____ 522 ____ 145 _198 _170 ____ 513 ___ 1035 ___ 000 001 .0.0 mappy ____________ 152 _155 _235 ____ 542 ____ 129 _184 _168 ____ 481 ___ 1023 ___ 001 000 .0.0 BKViking ___________191 _191 _218 ____ 600 ____ 107 _171 _133 ____ 411 ___ 1011 ___ wxallannj __________ 172 _176 _202 ____ 550 ____ 120 _188 _149 ____ 457 ___ 1007 ___ 000 001 Tom ______________ 158 _162 _200 ____ 520 ____ 103 _220 _078 ____ 401 ____ 921 ___ dmillz25 ___________ 167 _127 _154 ____ 448 ____ 152 _188 _112 ____ 452 ____ 900 ___ 000 010 .0.0 Mercurial (2/4) ______146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/4)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx _(3/4)_060 _108 _142 ____ 310 ____ 089 _022 _104 ____ 215 ____ 525 ___ H2O ___(2/4) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/4) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: all shown (2/4) missed March and April, Orangeburgwx (3/4) missed January and H2OTown_wx (3/4) missed April. Part Two: Western and All Nine contests ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 222 _ 228 _ 310 _____ 760 __________ 0 0 2 __ Apr ______1891 (= 1) __Normal ______________216 _ 178 _ 270 _____ 664 __________ 1 1 1 _____________1908 (= 1) __ FEB BKViking _______________184 _ 216 _ 264 _____ 664 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1675 (= 8) Tom __________________ 218 _ 192 _ 242 _____ 652 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1573 (=12) so_whats_happening _____182 _ 227 _ 227 _____ 636 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1777 (= 2) __ FEB __ Consensus __________ 186 _ 198 _ 242 _____ 626 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1668 (= 9) wxallannj ______________ 178 _ 220 _ 224 _____ 622 __________ 1 1 0 __ Mar _______1629 (=11) DonSutherland.1 ________ 212 _ 184 _ 220 _____ 616 __________ 0 0 1 __ Jan _______1692 (= 7) hudsonvalley21 _________ 188 _ 165 _ 253 _____ 606 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1776 (= 3) RodneyS_______________ 176 _ 252 _ 168 _____ 596 __________ 0 1 0 _____________1655 (=10) __ MAR, APR wxdude64 _____________ 194 _ 171 _ 221 _____ 586 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1760 (= 4) Roger Smith ____________180 _ 186 _ 212 _____ 578 __________ 0 0 0 __ Jan _______1747 (= 5) RJay __________________168 _ 158 _ 248 _____ 574 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1695 (= 6) jaxjagman _____________ 160 _ 174 _ 236 _____ 570 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1664 (= 9) Orangeburgwx (3/4)______199 _ 162 _ 197 _____ 558 __________ 1 1 1 __ Feb _______1083 (=16) dmillz25 _______________ 161 _ 177 _ 182 _____ 520 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1420 (=15) Stebo _________________ 120 _ 164 _ 192 _____ 476 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1511 (=13) mappy _________________118 _ 142 _ 175 _____ 435 __________ 0 0 0 _____________1458 (=14) H2OTown__WX (3/4) ____ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=18) Mercurial __ (2/4) _______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=17) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/4) ______ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=20) H2O ____ (2/4) _________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) cerakoter (1 mo Apr) _____ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=21) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=23) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=22) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=24) __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Regional Rumble (Total scores Jan-Apr) Region __________________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ____ TOTALS NYC ______________________725 _____ 640 _____ 796 ________2161 Mid Atlantic ________________818 _____ 657 _____ 673 ________2148 PHL ______________________780 _____ 527 _____ 784 ________2091 Central + Western __________ 830 _____ 632 _____ 624 ________2086 ___Normal ________________ 710 _____ 534 _____ 664 ________1908 PA / NY ___________________549 _____ 592 _____ 636 ________1777 TN Valley _________________ 638 _____ 490 _____ 580 ________1708 ___ Consensus _____________568 _____ 474 _____ 626 ________1668 Great Lakes Ohio valley ______ 522 _____ 513 _____ 476 ________1511 Southeast _________________ 474 _____ 361 _____ 675 ________1510 New England _______________346 _____ 261 _____ 372 ________ 979
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