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Roger Smith

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Everything posted by Roger Smith

  1. It would appear that all but four of our predicted first high risks are now in the rear view mirror and out of the running with three left standing in May and one in Nov (well the latest of the passed dates is April 9 so that one remains in contention until about the 20th when May 1st takes over). So if today's risk happens to go high, April 9th takes it. No huge contenders on the current model output. These were the forecasts I noted as being April 7 or later: rolltide_130 (Apr 7) freshgeek (Apr 9) cstrunk (May 1) bjc0303 (May 2) GSwizzle83 (May 4) NRGJeff (Nov 18) Would now say around May 10th perhaps. Recent maps remind me of spring 1947 (the Woodward OK tornado which was in early May IIRC). Pretty good call by freshgeek (Apr 9) who also said MS-AL, now under tor watch (enhanced).
  2. Roger Smith

    2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    The 2.5" of snow that fell at GRB on 13th changed the lead with cmillzz back in front by a mere 0.4" ... so this has eliminated GRB as a location that can change the outcome with both cmillzz and Thomp2m now accumulating errors there at the same pace. The remaining locations where they have any leverage on each other (not both in black numbers) are: YXU and IND _ Thomp2m can gain about 5" at YXU and 4" at IND, if that much fell, the total advantage would be 18" (one goes up 9, the other down 9). However, doubtful whether much more snow will fall at these locations. Still, a total of 0.3" would change the lead if nothing else happens in the following list. (0.3" x 2 being the total change). That much seems possible at YXU in particular. APN and MQT both present Thomp2m with chances to move ahead. At APN, that will start to happen if 8.5" more snow falls, and at MQT, if 19.5" more falls. Up to those amounts, both are gaining error amounts. Both of these propositions seem to be about 50-50 to me. STL is the same story for 3.0" or more, anything less does not matter, and that's the most likely outcome. LSE on the other hand can improve cmillz25 after 3.7" falls, which seems quite possible. The total improvement available is 5.8" (2 x 2.9" differential). MKE snow will help Thomp2m from 1.2" to 3.8" (before that they both decrease error totals, after 3.8" they both gain errors). That is a 5.2" differential. It's probably too close to call now. Central Illinois is not in a good position with MQT accumulating errors for him while everyone else still has a cushion, although if this MQT snow is balanced by GRB snow the first four inches won't count against his overall total. Stebo can still do well if there's a lot of snow at the two Ontario locations and FWA. You can check the tables a few posts back and see if you have any chances of overtaking the leaders. You need higher red numbers than their red numbers, or red numbers where they have black numbers, and the differential has to be half of your deficit, for you to have a chance. If you can only find a differential of 50" and you are 120" behind now, you can't catch up. (added Apr 14 1530z) MSP has posted 1.1" for 13th and added 0.2" since midnight. Since forecasts call for 10-15" there, I will leave the tables for a later edit when I expect MSP seasonal total to be higher than now shown although at this point in time the total is actually 63.8" ... MSP is not a factor in the contest since all but IndTenn have already been passed so with that exception we are all gaining the same error scores at MSP now. MLI is the same story. Even if IndTenn gains the full amounts available at these two locations, their score cannot catch any other forecasters on those two alone. (has 39.3" credit in total, catch-up value is 78.6", currently 288.2" behind 14th place. IndTenn needs snowfalls of stupendous proportions at a number of other locations to catch the pack). Overnight snowfalls include 0.7" additional at APN (all forecasters gain that much), 0.6" at LSE, and 5.0" at GRB. As there has been no snow at MQT, Central Illinois is back in the mix now, having used his 4.5" credit shown in the table to get to within 0.3" of cmillzz and passing Thomp2m by 0.1" ... however, these two still have some snow credit at LSE which is forecast to use up their credits today, so the situation in the table will be restored fairly soon since GRB is no longer going to be in play among the three of them. At some point later today, Stebo will also make a pass at the lead since he had 6.6" of credit to use at GRB and still has 1.6" of that left, but he's in the same situation regarding LSE. It looks as though APN is in line to pass minimum forecast during this storm with just 4.7" left now. Most of you have enough credit at APN to keep gaining but I will start to accumulate error points there about near the end of this storm (min forecast as stated 4.7" left to go). This storm is bringing several forecasters in the middle of the scoring table into contention, for example, madwx has a lot of snow credit to use at LSE, GRB and APN. The table will be updated around 23z with the afternoon subtotals. At the moment I have not adjusted it for any of this new snowfall reported this morning and MSP will be passing the value shown during the day, expect that to increase also. I have edited in some estimates with the end of day changes shown in brackets. Those will be replaced with the new actual scoring totals later today. If the storm adds slight amounts at MQT this will be a differential for CI who is already gaining error points there. The next to be passed at MQT would be Stebo who has 8.4" credit left. Contest is very much "up in the air" until this storm ends and we get some indication from the models about any future potential snowfalls. (Apr 15 08z) Using actual values for 14th (all close to earlier estimated totals for 14th) the table has changed yet again and Stebo now has a narrow lead over cmillzz and Thomp2m. It looks like Stebo can hold off both Thomp2m and cmillzz if snow falls at YYZ, YXU and FWA, also some at MKE, but Stebo is vulnerable at APN compared to Thomp2m. More snow appears possible on future dates so this contest is by no means settled yet.
  3. Roger Smith

    2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    (posted earlier today) Looking back to the standings (Mar 7 post edited daily) the lead is now with Thomp2mp by just 1.6" over cmillzz. You could figure this is really 0.2" if cmillzz gets to use his remaining credit of 0.7" at YYZ (which seems likely, although not a guarantee). From that point, the differentials would be at the following locations (any place that both are in the black is not going to affect the contest results for them): Thomp2mp has the advantage at YXU (5.3") and IND (4.3") which if completely used would place the differential at 2 x 9.6" or 19.2" plus the 0.2" left after YYZ. Also both have a credit left to use at MKE and STL but Thomp2mp has 2.7" more at MKE and 4.7" more at STL. Using those requires getting into the differential zone first, which requires 1.6" at MKE and 2.9" at STL. Those seem possible although unlikely for STL. The opposite situation exists only at LSE so that the only chance cmillzz has to win would be to get the YYZ snow and more than 4.2" snow at LSE after which the next 2.7" would be a further advantage before both begin to accumulate. Cmillzz also has 1.1" credit left at GRB. This is an example of how plausible snowfalls at the two locations would affect the outcome: YYZ 1.5" leaves the differential at 0.2" in favor of Thomp2m YXU 2.0" restores the differential to 4.2" IND 0.5" increases the differential to 5.2" MKE 2.0" increases the differential to 6.0" STL 0.2" leaves the differential at 6.0" LSE 7.0" reduces the differential to 1.6" GRB 1.5" changes the outcome to 0.6" win for cmillz So between these two, the outcome depends on what happens at these stations (APN and MQT are also differentials at present, in favor of Thomp2mn) but appear to be beyond the range of the contest totals). Currently third place Central Illinois can easily win also, if there is substantial snow (3" should suffice) in the ORD-MKE-FWA-IND-PIA region, because they have large credits to use in all of those locations and the two ahead do not. A smaller 1-2" snowfall in this region will make things very close all round. However, CI has a disadvantage for MQT where errors are already increasing while others have 10 to 20 inches or more left to reduce their totals. I don't see an easy path to contest victory for any other forecaster but IndTenn can still win with massive snowfalls throughout the region. Stebo has an outside chance with heavy snowfalls in Ontario, Alpena and Green Bay. (posted later today) Snow at some of those locations mentioned, up to 5 p.m., has already moved Central Illinois into second place but it's very close among the top three. I would now expect the lead to keep changing (when MQT alone gets snow, this will be a disadvantage for CI). The main question now is, how much more snow can fall before the season becomes mainly MQT additional snow? And how much will that be? (as of April 13th) Yesterday's 4.8" of snow has moved Central Illinois back into third and the current separation at the top is only 1.8" ... with snow expected in parts of WI (MSP is not in play for the leaders, they are both accumulating errors there), and second place cmillzz holding some advantages over leader Thomp2mp at both LSE and GRB, the lead could change hands depending on what happens at a few other locations. Only last place IndTenn can now benefit from any further snow at MSP or MLI, the total there has passed the rest of our forecasts so we're all adding on new snowfall as the same amount of errors whenever it snows there. At DTW, SDF and PIA, two forecasters have yet to be passed (DAFF and IndTenn at DTW, VPBob21 and IWXwx at SDF and Central Illinois and IndTenn at PIA). Two locations remain with seasonal snowfall below our minimum forecast, STL and APN.
  4. First look at the anomalies after one week ... DCA a lot higher than NYC partly due to midnight high on 7th (67 deg) preventing a big negative anomaly. I calculate that the monthly effect of that is around +0.3. (20 deg for 1/60 of the total input). Just one of those things ... DEN estimated from data available, CF6 only updated to 5th (still no snowfall for 5th-6th to apply to contest although we all have lots to give yet as DEN was only 24.2" before this). Later edit, those days were posted all as trace amounts despite 1-3 inches around the Denver region at other sites. Moving on regardless ... 1.3" added eventually this month ... ** compare the actual 14th to the NWS predicted on 8th ## compare the actual 21st to the NWS predicted on 15th ^^ compare the actual 24th to the combined NWS + GFS 16d forecast from 8th $$ compare the actual 28th to the NWS predicted on 22nd ________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _SEA _ actual ___ (7d) _________ --0.3 _--4.6 _--3.3 __--12.9 _+1.1 _+2.7 ___ --3.0e_+8.6 _--0.1 _ actual ___(14 d) _________ 0.0 _--2.8 _--3.7 ___ --9.1 _--0.1 _--1.0 ___ +0.1 _+7.4 _--0.1 ** _ actual ___(21 d) ________ --2.1 _--4.8 _--4.3 __--10.0 _--1.9 _--2.1 ___ --0.7e_+4.1 _--0.6 ## _ actual ___(24 d) ________ --2.0 _--4.1 _--3.6 ___ --8.4 _--1.8 _--2.4 ___ --0.9 _+4.3 _+0.1 ^^ _ actual ___(26 d) ________ --1.7 _--3.6 _--3.0 ___ --8.1 _--2.2 _--2.4 ___ --1.0 _+4.6 _+1.1 _ actual ___(28 d) ________ --1.5 _--3.3 _--2.6 ___ --8.1 _--2.1 _--2.5 ___ --0.4 _+5.0 _+1.1 $$ _ actual ___(30 d) _ final ___ -1.9 _-3.6 _-2.8 ___ -7.7 _ -2.2 _ -2.6 ___ +0.4_+4.7_+1.0 seven day projections _ 8th ____ (p14th - NWS) __--2.3 _--3.7 _--3.3 ___ --8.0 _--1.0 _+2.0 ___ --0.5 _ +7.5 _+0.1 ** _15th ____ (p21st - NWS) __--1.0 _--2.4 _--3.0 ___ --8.5 _--1.0 _--1.2 ___ +1.0 _ +5.3 _--0.3 ## _22nd ____(p28th - NWS) __--2.4 _--4.0 _--3.0 ___ --8.0 _--2.0 _--2.2 ____ 0.0 _ +4.5 _+1.0 $$ eight to sixteen day projections (these end with 22nd, for later end of month projections, see new section to be added below after 24th) _ 8th ___ (p24th - GFS) ___ --1.3 _--1.7 _--1.5 ___ --4.5 _+1.3 _+3.3 ___ +2.5 _+5.5 _+0.5 ^^ _15th __ (p30th - GFS) ____ --1.5 _--2.0 _--2.5 ___ --5.0 _--1.5 _--1.0 ___ --0.5 _+3.0 _--0.5 _22nd __(p30th - GFS d8,9)_ --2.0 _--3.5 _--3.0 ___ --6.0 _--2.0 _--2.0 ____ 0.0 _+4.0 _+0.5 _25th __(p30th - NWS 6d) __--2.0 _--3.0 _--2.5 ___ --6.0 _--2.0 _--2.5 ____ 0.0 _+4.0 _+1.0 _27th __(p30th - NWS 4d) __--2.0 _--3.0 _--2.5 ___ --7.0 _--2.5 _--2.5 ____ 0.0 _+4.0 _+1.0 _29th __(p30th - NWS 4d) __--2.0 _--3.5 _--2.5 ___ --7.0 _--2.5 _--2.5 ____ 0.0 _+4.5 _+1.0 final values when confirmed _--1.9 _--3.6 _--2.8 ___ --7.7 _--2.2 _--2.6 ___ +0.4 _+4.7 _+1.0 comments 15th _ Average NWS 7-d error about 1.1 deg, ranges from 2.3 at DCA (mostly because it turned so warm past two days) and 3.0 at IAH (generally too warm, my bias might have corrupted that somewhat), to only 0.1 at PHX and 0.2 at SEA. Also good at BOS (0.4 error there). The coming week appears cool to cold almost everywhere except slightly warmer than average at DEN and PHX, not as hot for PHX as the first half has been. The GFS indicates generally cooler than average from 22nd to end of month also, although PHX should stay closer to normal. On these projections, RodneyS does particularly well, his score would be 768/900. Consensus would be 624/900. 22nd _ DEN was missing 21st from CF6, -14 anom and 1.3" snow on daily climate report, so adjusted the 0.0 reported after 20 days to -0.7 and will be updating the snowfall contest report back in the February thread (that will move to the May thread for its final days). Average NWS error once again similar to last report at 1.25 deg, considering the slight imprecision of my estimating from a rising temperature trend curve, could be anywhere from 0.5 to 2.0 in reality. The new end of month numbers are probably closing in on something reliable so I will generate a provisional scoring table later today. 25th _ Worth noting that ATL received over 4" of rain in the past few days. Just a few minor changes to the end of month anomalies as we close in, the 16 day projections for the 24th were a mixture of good and mediocre, whether that was GFS pattern recognition flaws or my subjective bias at work, probably a combination of the two. Anyway, the average error (from 16 days ago, see the two lines in the table marked ^^) was 2.5 deg and the score for this forecast was fairly similar to our current consensus from the 1st or before, namely 442/900. IAH and DEN were furthest away from reality factoring in anomaly sign, ORD was recognized to be cold but not as cold as we've seen, and to some extent same for NYC and BOS. DCA, PHX and SEA were reasonably good for 16 days. I will update on 27th and 29th, 30th and finalize on May 1st. Will be adding annual updates soon as the scores seem to be reliable now. 27th _ Adjusted ORD and ATL down, will make very little difference to results as these were already colder than any forecasts. 29th _ NYC and PHX were adjusted at this late stage, next corrections will be final values. The NWS 7-day for 28th was quite accurate with an average error of only 0.4 deg. (final values being posted overnight May 1st, scoring adjusted as necessary)
  5. Roger Smith

    spring snowstorm 4/7 -4/8

    I think it's getting ready to snow from RIC to Greensboro NC for a while, 2-4" potential on grassy surfaces at least, but further east the rain will get colder and sleety eventually and could be some snow mixing in but probably no accumulations in southeast VA or e NC.
  6. Roger Smith

    April 7-8 snow event

    If you are planning to drive all night, you might run into wet snow after Raleigh and through Richmond but volume of traffic should keep the road either wet or slushy rather than icy, could be slippery on exit ramps until past Baltimore if the virga reaches the ground in DC area. Off the road there could be 2 to 4 inch accumulations on grassy surfaces sort of a deal. The low is currently between Charleston SC and Columbia SC and the leading wave has collapsed southeast off the coast, the arctic front has reached Richmond to Danville and currently runs along the NC-VA border before cutting south again. Expect that to be more like Norfolk to Raleigh to Charlotte by midnight. Sleet to snow north of that front.
  7. Roger Smith

    April 7-8 snow event

    Radar looks like virga on steroids (DC). Low is currently southwest of Augusta GA with a leading wave near RDU, by midnight that leading wave should be east of ORF and the primary low near ILM. This is when snow might begin to develop from RIC to Greensboro NC.
  8. Roger Smith

    April 7-8 snow event

    Your location says Cary NC which I looked up and you are very close to RDU. If that's where you are asking about, close to the mixing line by about 9 p.m., could get a coating on grassy surfaces. Further north and west up to 3-5" possible.
  9. Roger Smith

    April 7-8 snow event

    Where do you want to put the decimal in that? Two choices I guess.
  10. Roger Smith

    April 7-8 snow event

    This looks like a good test for nowcasting because the low is getting squashed down south by the enormous push of cold air in the plains states. Currently it is diving south of Natchez and may not even clear Mobile by much before it begins to recurve a little. I will hazard the guess that DCA to BWI sees rain turning to sleet then snow during the day, and end up with 1.5". Some forum reports may be 2-4". Jackpot likely near RIC to southeast MD with 3-6" outside chance 5-10" max somewhere in that zone.
  11. Roger Smith

    April 7-8 snow event

    If rain-snow line sets up about Norfolk VA to Raleigh NC then counties west of that could see 3-6" and mountains 5-10" but all depends on track of this OK-AR-MS low later today; for RDU the likely outcome is 0.5" liquid and 1.0" snow out of that, sleet and ice pellets etc.
  12. Roger Smith

    April 7-8 snow event

    Organized circulation already evident near sw OK / TX border, all signs pointing to a track into GA/SC and out to sea near ILM. Arctic front will wrap around this Saturday night reaching se VA into central NC. Best snow threat is 5 to 8 inch band from central Delmarva across se MD towards RIC and into n/c NC. Leaves open a range of outcomes for I-95 strip from 0.5" to 3.0" depending on exact snowfall axis. You're in the game but RIC should do best and I think the map posted above needs extra snow southeast of DC, would say 4" La Plata.
  13. Roger Smith

    April 7-8 snow event

    Looks to me like it might produce 3 to 6 inch snowfalls in southern VA and across the south-central Delmarva, trending to trace to 0.5" snowfalls near DCA to BWI and scattered 1" pockets northwest of IAD. Too much development near FL panhandle Saturday afternoon for front to slow down in time for I-95 snowfall potential to develop much beyond 1/2mi S-- type precip there but will beef up closer to stalling front when that reaches VA-NC border, snow may continue into overnight as low develops and moves offshore SC. Maybe one in five chance this moves north in final runs and maxes out closer to DCA-BWI.
  14. Roger Smith

    April 7-8 snow event

    Frankly, you're better off with a picturesque 2-4" than 6-10" if the trees are out, it will cut down on the tree damage and power cuts. I think it will be maybe 3-6" but that won't be too damaging if that's the total. Can recall a spring snowstorm in late April 1976 in Ontario after a warm spell that placed 8" of snow on almost fully leafed trees and it brought down large branches on mature maples and oaks. You don't need that.
  15. Roger Smith

    Mid-Atlantic winter 2017-18 snowfall contest

    I would say the latest date that DCA could see measurable snow is perhaps May 2 or 3, for IAD and BWI perhaps May 5 to 8. Toronto had measurable snow on May 25, 1961. A few degrees of latitude further north it can snow into mid-June. So that gives you some idea of the timing vs latitude question involved. The freak snowfall of June 5-6 1816 left measurable snow close to sea level in New England. This weekend thingie looks capable of adding 3" at DCA and 5" at IAD, maybe 4-5 at BWI also. Would not expect much if any at RIC. About seven of these might give me a chance but I only see two.
  16. Cerakoter1984, yes all are welcome here, and I treated your DCA forecast "as is" rounding it off, you may have meant +0.7 but it's a small points differential anyway. I failed to notice that New England were a no show, did notice southeast and rustled up a forecast there, New England you can come in at 35% to end of today then I revert to "the dreaded clock" tick tock. Thank goodness I have a bit of backup again, this high-wire act cannot go on much longer before the NYC masses pick me apart in the secondary. Congrats to so_whats_happening, jaxjagman and Stebo for their lone wolf persistence with very (or pretty) good results for the RR and individually, considering the depth of the opposition (Mid Atl also rather formidable and the PHL duo are on fire, as per avatar). The rumble has not become a stumble yet. March results are posted, so_whats_happening leads (well actually Normal leads, gotta do something about that in April). Table of forecasts April 2018 FORECASTER ___ Region ___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA so_whats_happening PA/NY _+1.3 _+0.7 _--0.8 __ --1.4 _+1.2 _+1.5 __ +2.9 _+1.5 _+0.7 Cerakoter1984 __ C+W ____ +0.1 _--1.7 _--0.9 __ --2.0 _+0.3 _+0.7 __ --5.2 _+3.7 _+2.1 Scotty Lightning _ PHL _____ +0.5 __0.0 _--0.5 __ --0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 Roger Smith ____ C+W ____--0.6 _--0.8 _--1.0 __ --1.5 _--1.2 _+4.5 __ --0.8 _+1.1 _--1.0 mappy _________ M A ____ --0.7 _--1.1 _--1.6 __ --0.1 _+0.9 _+0.8 __ --0.9 _+1.1 _+0.2 Orangeburgwx (-30%) SE __ --0.8 _--1.4 _--1.7 __ --2.3 _+2.2 _+0.5 __ +1.6 _+2.7 _+1.5 wxdude64 _ (-2%) M A ____ --0.9 _--0.5 _--1.0 __ --1.4 __0.0 _+0.5 __ +1.1 _+2.1 _--0.3 jaxjagman ______ TNV ____ --1.0 _--1.3 _--1.8 __ --0.8 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ --0.3 _+0.7 _+0.9 Stebo _________ GL/OV ___ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 __ --0.5 _+0.7 _+0.5 __ --1.5 _+0.8 _+0.9 ___ Consensus ___________ --1.0 _--1.3 _--1.5 __ --1.5 _+0.7 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.4 dmillz25 ________ NYC ____ --1.0 _--1.5 _--2.0 __ --2.5 _+1.2 _+1.3 __ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 Tom ___________ PHL _____--1.1 _--0.9 _--0.8 __ --1.1 _+0.2 _+1.2 __ +0.8 _+0.8 _+0.9 DonSutherland.1 _ NYC _____--1.1 _--1.2 _--1.5 __ --3.3 _+0.5 _+1.3 __ +1.0 _+2.4 _--0.4 BKViking _ (-2%)_ NYC _____--1.2 _--1.0 _--1.1 __ --2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _+1.6 _+0.8 hudsonvalley21 __ NYC _____--1.3 _--1.8 _--1.5 __ --0.2 _+0.8 _+0.3 __ --0.6 _+0.2 _+0.4 wxallannj _______ NYC _____--1.3 _--1.8 _--1.8 __ --2.4 _+0.8 _+1.3 __ +1.4 _+1.8 _+0.3 RodneyS ________ M A _____--1.7 _--2.4 _--1.9 __--5.0 _+0.2 _+0.9 __ +1.0 _+3.2 _--1.0 RJay ___________ NYC _____--2.5 _--3.0 _--3.0 __--1.5 _--1.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 _+0.5 ___________________________________________________________________________________ Consensus for 17 forecasts is median value (9th ranked). Color coding (red, blue) shows the warmest and coldest forecasts. Normal has more extreme (or equally) for several of those, but extremes among forecasters shown also. Good luck, the snowfall contest continues to be updated in the February thread, before any updates today DonS and hudsonvalley21 were a close 1,2 in that. Could go for a while yet as Canada exports its most famous natural resource at no cost. (and I don't mean Don Cherry but if you want him ... )
  17. Hoping somebody from the southeast subforum can post a forecast before late penalties get too large as you don't have an entry for April yet.
  18. Welcome back to the temperature forecast contest and Regional Rumble ... February was rather a challenge and scores are fairly low in general, so the contest remains quite competitive. You can check the February thread to see how you and your region are doing. So for March the forecast challenge is the same, predict the temperature anomalies for nine locations, in F deg, relative to 1981-2010 normal (average) values. These locations are: DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... I will publicize the March contest in the regional announcements on Tuesday 27th to keep it top of mind ... the deadline is for penalty-free scoring, but the penalties this year are fairly relaxed (see January thread if you want to get the exact details, something like 1% every 4h late for the first 36 hours then 1% per hour added to that after 18z 2nd). With the low scoring in February, the late penalties ended up costing a few people very few points in fact. Good luck, hope to see everyone rumbling like crazy all year long, this may turn out to be a lot of fun (is that still legal?).
  19. Extreme forecast update March 2018 For March, six locations qualified. This makes a total of 20/27 for the year to date. DCA (-3.2) and NYC (-2.4) were colder than all forecasts, lowest forecasts were -1.4 DCA (wxdude64 and RodneyS) and --1.3 NYC (wxdude64). BOS (-1.0) narrowly missed qualifying as third lowest forecasts were high score. ORD (-1.0) was not close to being an extreme forecast. ATL (-0.8) was a win for Roger Smith (-1.0) and a loss for RodneyS (-1.3). IAH (-4.9) was a win for wxallannj (-2.4) and a "no decision" for Orangeburgwx (-2.6) who was not high score due to late penalty. DEN (-2.3) was also a win for wxallannj (-2.4). PHX (-1.6) was a shared win for wxallannj and RodneyS. SEA (-0.2) was not close to being an extreme forecast. Extreme Forecasts wins and losses Roger Smith __________ 4-0 Orangeburgwx ________ 3-0* wxallannj _____________3-0 so_whats_happening ___ 2-0 wxdude64 ____________ 2-0 RodneyS _____________ 2-1 __ Normal ____________ 2-1 DonSutherland1 ________1-0 Mercurial _____________ 1-0 NRG Jeff ______________1-0 Stebo ________________ 1-0 H2OTown_wx _________ 1-1 Scotty Lightning (SD)____1-1 * no decision (Mar for IAH)
  20. Roger Smith

    2017/18 Lakes/OV winter snowfall contest

    Contest standings will continue to be updated in the previous post. March snowfall is tracked in the post before that, and any additions in April and May will appear in the same table (updated). Cmillzz is in the lead in both total departure and average percentage error per station. The standings can still change as MQT errors are a large part of the total, and Central Illinois will be the first to start accumulating errors there as total snowfall is just below that minimum forecast now. Comparing forecasts is made somewhat easier by checking whether one line has similar type (red or black) departures, where they are the same as each other, no imminent changes are likely. The contest will run through May which is still snowfall season at MQT and sometimes a few other locations as well. Check back and see how the tables are changing as we get closer to the end of the contest.
  21. --0.6 _ --0.8 _ --1.0 ___ --1.5 _ --1.2 _ +4.5 __ --0.8 _ +1.1 _ --1.0
  22. April contest thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51133-april-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-and-regional-rumble/ or you can enter directly here in this thread.
  23. April contest thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51133-april-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-and-regional-rumble/ or you can enter directly here in this thread.
  24. April contest thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51133-april-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-and-regional-rumble/ or you can enter directly here in this thread.
  25. April contest thread is open: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51133-april-2018-temperature-forecast-contest-and-regional-rumble/ or you can enter directly here in this thread.
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