Disc

I do not know their whole thinking. Their AFD will be out soon. I am off the forecast desk today and only re-posting what those in the office came up with.

I generally use it in the summertime. It's good at picking up terrain induced afternoon thunderstorms, at least around here. And it's usually fairly spot on for initiation times. It also does okay with the finer details of smaller mesoscale components in a snow storm, but 6 hours out lead time, not sure who that benefits.

It drives a sfc LP to Detroit. That, and it's the long range HRRR. It will begin to become useful this time tomorrow.

Check back this afternoon. Something will be hoisted.

I agree. Very dynamic system with an intense band showing along the periphery of this system on other guidance as well. Where does it set up? Dunno yet, but someone will hit the lotto. I didn't post the two frames before these, but it pivots over the 81 corridor down here for several hours.

For the I-81 corridor yes. However, more amped means more warmth. Still think you probably end up with a heavy front-end thump too.

These speak for themselves.. Mauled.

@Buddy1987 I think you're in a fantastic spot for this. The NAM was just about perfect. We get a 700mb FGEN band pivoting over us for hours. It would be a mauling as pictured.

I've been staring at the 700mb FGEN map on TT. It just pivots over us. Sheesh.

Super! thanks! @kc4wsd @landof2rivers @Tullioz

@kc4wsd @Tullioz How much ice/freezing rain would you estimate you guys actually had? I see the photos there but hard to tell. Anyone else in Rockingham or Caswell receive freezing rain? If so, how much?

It can either go to an Advisory or a Warning. Fairly typical. It's easier to do a watch first and then break the counties down by impact when it's time to upgrade.

Well this finally has my attention. Will be a fun week (or maybe not) of tracking.

Ended up with about 4". I was expecting an inch or two at most. ETA: Most models had no snow up here, but as expected, precip shield was much further north than modeled.

That band moving north in southern VA is gonna be sweet for whoever ends up underneath it.

Near Floyd County line in southern Roanoke Co.

3" and 28F. Dumping snow. Roanoke County.

Heavy snow. 28F Southern Roanoke Co, Virginia. 2700ft.

From what I've seen, boundary layer temps are very marginal. It's gonna be hard to overcome those further east, especially since the heaviest is falling during the middle of the day. Ratios also very low.. this is less than 10:1. Confidence is rather low that you meet or exceed 4" (12hr snow warning criteria) in Danville right now. If this was a colder airmass, I think a warning criteria snow would be a slam dunk with this.

And just like that, the 18z NAM catches on for Virginia.

I still think the precip will be more expansive into Virginia than what the NAM/3k NAM models are showing. I've clicked thorough just about all other hi-res guidance and it does not have that sharp northern cutoff. I'll be very surprised if it indeed shuts off right at the VA/NC border.

I honestly haven't really looked further east into NC. I do think you all have rain first or slight mix and may change to snow as the low pulls off the coast. Snow amounts? Not sure. High end snow map from NWS Raleigh has you all pushing an inch or so. Boundary layer is quite marginal and at the moment you're more in the position for a "white rain" scenario. Full forecast package update will be 1am-4am.

Folks along and north of I-40 are sitting good right now. Mountains/foothills are gonna get a really good snow. VA/NC border should do really well too. Much uncertainty on the northern extend of the precip shield, but as climo suggest with such a track, areas even further north into VA will do well. I see the 18z GFS is finally playing catch up too and showing snow into VA. Models will continue to adjust and I would not be surprised to see continued slight north trends for the next 24hrs. I have a hunch our snow totals will be going up overnight, but I will leave that to the overnight shift to decide and I can't 100% speak on behalf of them.