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Disc

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Disc

  1. Disc
    Speaking more for southern VA here... The is a very dense arctic airmass that is moving across the northern parts of the CONUS. This airmass will obviously moderate some, but it will still be very dry and will be hard to scour out once the precipitation begins to fall into it. I've seen some of the best CAD favored areas hang onto below freezing temperatures for an entire duration of an event even with a retreating high. While yes, ZR is self-limiting and the high is transient, these mountain valleys are incredibly hard to "warm" once the low-level cold is locked in with precip falling. The lighter precipitation at the start with temps in the mid-20s is very much a concern. 6-8hrs of that and you have a mess. Like usual, I'd be most concerned about the Blue Ridge and areas just to the east.
  2. Disc
  3. Disc
    Just now seeing this as I haven't been on. I will comment that there has been research done with intra-cloud lightning preceding an uptick in severe potential and it's usually a better indicator than CG. Many times, storms will only have intra-cloud at the beginning of their life, whereas CGs don't follow until later on. As an example, the graph below shows a scenario where you see a large uptick in intra-cloud just before there is a large jump in MESH and a hail report of up to 6". When looking at the CGs, it tends to remain much more constant, with little to no trends.
  4. Disc
    A very impressive storm for this area. Stronger than the Feb Appomattox tornado in 2016 and the Elon/Amherst tornado of last year. Both were also EF3s. Edit: For some reason the animation won't work here. I guess it's not supported. So here's a link: https://i.imgur.com/aBXa6ku.gifv
  5. Disc
    Very nice band of snow moving through down here. Hoping the snow/ice line will decide to setup just to my south.
  6. Disc
    Can I hyperventilate here? That Euro run was amazing and my weenie mode is off the charts. That is all.
  7. Disc
    Just something that would make it so we don't have to scroll through a bunch of images, COD allows a GIF to be made so you can post the whole run in one post.
  8. Disc
    We'll use one without all the ice.
  9. Disc
    I think you will see some decent snow, probably at least warning criteria for sure. It's gonna be really close up here.
  10. Disc
    And RGEM and ICON.
  11. Disc
    I just got Oklahoma NAM'd. 12" to nada.
  12. Disc
    Yeah that just made this an even harder forecast. So now we range from 2 feet on the NAM to 0 from the GFS, with every other model in between.
  13. Disc
    I'm in full on weenie mode after seeing that NAM run.
  14. Disc
    Yes. Still very much in this. We are in a good spot and 6-12" is likely.
  15. Disc
    The south shifts are gonna put me in the sanitarium. Such a sharp cutoff across the area up here.
  16. Disc
    http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php Says GFS, but this is the FV3. Hence the 'eval' in the URL.
  17. Disc
    Agreed. CAD will be well entrenched from Wytheville to the Blacksburg area, as usual. Southern Floyd County also tends to jackpot, but there's not many options to stay in that area. Hillsville would be my location of choice as of right now.
  18. Disc
    Correct. This is Kuchera. It at least tones down on the absurd totals to the east.
  19. Disc
    Too far out to even begin discussing this honestly. We are still trying to nail down a track.
  20. Disc
    Probably under doing it, per the usual. But we will have to wait and see.
  21. Disc
    The Euro isn't making this forecast any easier.
  22. Disc
    It's been an insane few months for sure. Speaking of record breaking rain, IF (and big IF) the Euro is anywhere close to being correct, it would likely break Roanoke's all time rainfall record for the year.
  23. Disc
    Yeah. I don't need it though. That means being stuck at the office for large/unwanted amounts of time. Still lots of model watching and trends to go!
  24. Disc
    I'm under the 30" of snow on the Euro. I'll rent my house out to the board.
  25. Disc
    Correct. I've been seeing a lot of absolutes being posted around here -- And it's still way too far out to even begin saying who will get what. A lot of people also read this forum who may take the absolutes and run with them. We can start nailing down who will get what later in the week, for now let's just sit back and watch each run. All we know is that there is likely a storm coming, but beyond that, nobody knows.
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