jaxjagman

Seemingly a couple days ago the Euro showed the MJO going into the warm phases 4 and 5,believe more or less what it was just seeing was a Kelvin Wave which is what iS being shown,It's now looking more GEFS it's why i believe the GEFS is more right with the signal getting into the WH upcoming.The MJO like i said earlier has destructive interference with it from Rossby and Kelvin waves

I thought we'd start to see a warm up around the 18th,but got suckered into the GEFS yesterday.The MJO is quite similar to the upcoming 5H pattern the Euro shows going into phase2 in Dec.But all signs are we are going to warm up upcoming especailly more in our parts,west and central Valley..Also don't let people fool you about the +IOD,it's still much stronger than normal right now AND all signs it should stay that way at least into the 2nd week of Jan. ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z DEC13 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 13-DEC 3.1 2.0 -2 -25 1 3 FRI 18Z 13-DEC 3.9 1.8 -6 46 -3 2 SAT 00Z 14-DEC 4.1 0.5 -11 1098 50 39.43 -9 0 SAT 06Z 14-DEC 4.0 -1.4 -14 1098 37 39.37 -16 -4 SAT 12Z 14-DEC 3.1 -3.8 -14 1097 16 39.34 -19 -7 SAT 18Z 14-DEC 5.6 -3.5 -12 1067 49 39.34 -21 -11 SUN 00Z 15-DEC 3.2 -3.1 -9 -20 -15 -7 SUN 06Z 15-DEC 0.5 -2.8 -6 2 -11 -6 SUN 12Z 15-DEC -0.4 0.1 -2 46 -7 -5 SUN 18Z 15-DEC 6.4 0.4 -1 47 -2 -1 MON 00Z 16-DEC 4.6 1.2 -3 1074 36 39.34 2 5 MON 06Z 16-DEC 8.3 7.0 -8 1085 26 39.35 4 10 MON 12Z 16-DEC 10.8 7.5 -8 1090 -3 39.36 5 12 MON 18Z 16-DEC 13.9 8.4 -11 1090 45 39.48 4 14 TUE 00Z 17-DEC 12.5 8.9 -14 32 2 13 TUE 06Z 17-DEC 9.2 6.8 -14 25 -1 10 TUE 12Z 17-DEC 0.5 -4.2 -6 -37 -6 0 TUE 18Z 17-DEC -0.8 -9.6 -2 -27 -12 -10 WED 00Z 18-DEC -0.7 -10.6 1 -16 -18 -18 WED 06Z 18-DEC -4.8 -10.2 4 -22 -18 -20 WED 12Z 18-DEC -6.9 -7.8 6 3 -13 -17 WED 18Z 18-DEC 1.8 -6.5 7 -11 -6 -11 THU 00Z 19-DEC -1.9 -4.4 7 -14 0 -5 THU 06Z 19-DEC -4.3 -1.7 9 -23 4 -2 THU 12Z 19-DEC -5.7 0.5 10 -37 8 0 THU 18Z 19-DEC 5.6 2.1 10 -38 9 1 FRI 00Z 20-DEC 1.3 1.6 9 -36 9 2 FRI 06Z 20-DEC 0.0 0.5 9 -24 7 0 FRI 12Z 20-DEC -0.3 -0.6 9 -35 4 -2 FRI 18Z 20-DEC 6.0 -0.8 7 25 1 -4 SAT 00Z 21-DEC 2.3 -0.1 5 -30 4 0 SAT 06Z 21-DEC 0.0 2.2 5 -2 5 2 SAT 12Z 21-DEC -0.6 4.3 4 -20 6 3 SAT 18Z 21-DEC 10.1 4.9 1 -34 7 6 SUN 00Z 22-DEC 6.8 3.4 0 -34 7 7 SUN 06Z 22-DEC 4.7 6.8 0 -14 7 7 SUN 12Z 22-DEC 4.1 9.4 0 -29 9 9 SUN 18Z 22-DEC 12.6 10.7 -3 -32 10 12 MON 00Z 23-DEC 9.8 10.0 -6 -38 11 16 MON 06Z 23-DEC 7.6 8.5 -6 -40 11 16 MON 12Z 23-DEC 7.4 7.3 -6 -40 11 16

If the EPS control is anywhere right,it's going to get cold towards the end of the year and it will stay cold until Mid Jan and beyond,but that's like always a big "IF"

MJO shows alot of destructive interference from Rossby-Kelvin waves.If it does move into the Maritime it's not going to stay there very long and will be back into the WH and Africa afterwards,least that is what it looks like right now. The ensembles today are fairly well clusted in showing a -AO before Christmas,yesterday it was a couple days after, but now there is not much signs of a +PNA..Euro shows a Low over Alaska the same time the the GEFS pumps up Alaska

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0401 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2019 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Monday - Lower MS and TN Valley Vicinity... A positively tilted shortwave mid/upper trough will eject from the Plains northeastward through the Ohio Valley on Monday, bringing a band of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across much of the south-central and Midwestern states. At the surface, low pressure over Arkansas will track northeast along the Ohio River toward western PA by Tuesday morning. Strong south/southwesterly low-level flow will bring Gulf moisture north and east across much of the southern U.S., with 60s dewpoints reaching as far north northern AL and perhaps middle TN. Forecast soundings indicate shear supportive of rotating updrafts and supercell structures. However, deep-layer flow will mostly parallel to an eastward-advancing cold front, likely leading to messy storm mode. Nevertheless, MUCAPE of around 500-1500 J/kg is expected across the warm sector and a southwesterly low level jet greater than 40 kt is forecast by most guidance. This should be sufficient for isolated to widely scattered severe cells and line segments capable of damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and possibly hail (where cells can remain discrete). Some uncertainty in north and east extent of the severe threat remains, and some changes are likely in coming outlook updates.

Teleconnections show the AO possibly could possibly tank just after Christmas with a possibly rising PNA and a weak -NAO,cold signs just after Christmas

Jamstec did a 180 this update.What looked to be a -NAO/+PDO did a flip flop,it's cold in the west and warm east. This morning the EPS wants to punch the PV,50MB it's still far out.Wave -2 looks better and better each day tho

JAMSTEC keeps more Nino conditions alive through summer

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2019 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along the front as it continues eastward through the remainder of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on D6/Tuesday. However, favorable low-level moisture and instability will become increasingly displaced south of the better large-scale forcing for ascent, suggesting a more limited severe risk. Dry and stable conditions are currently expected across the CONUS on D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday.

See what happens Monday,probably a better chance into Ms right now where better instability should be. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Active upper pattern will continue from the weekend into next week with several systems expected to rotate through the broad cyclonic flow aloft. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the eastern CONUS on D4/Saturday. Thunderstorms are anticipated across FL (and perhaps eastern NC) as a the cold front associated with this shortwave moves through. Instability will be limited but vertical shear will be strong and a few stronger storms are possible. Another strong shortwave trough is forecast to move from the Great Basin/northern Rockies through the central/southern Plains and mid MS Valley into the OH Valley D5/Sunday through D7/Tuesday. Some timing and strength differences exist within the guidance but the overall pattern has shown reasonably good run-to-run and model-to-model consistency. Period between this shortwave and the one before it is enough for decent moisture from the Lower MS Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. As a result, a moderately moist and unstable air mass is forecast to be place ahead of this maturing system. Given the active pattern, a bit more consistency is needed within the guidance to have enough confidence to delineate any threat areas. However, if current trends continue, probabilities will likely be needed in a succeeding outlook.

It is strong but still can get stretched and displaced

PV is getting hit by wave one and two now,least it looked better yesterday.maybe it's on to something,maybe not Edit:Should have said the PV is starting to get hit by wave 1and 2,i just woke up

We are going to warm up,didnt mean to post this in the other thread.East Asia is fixing to warm up as the MJO moves into the warm phases,if its right.Think the +IOD is playing with the MJO signal but the Euro and GEFS both show on the RMM's going into the COD into the Maritime,You should see East Asia get more active as the MJO moves along the Maritime which looks to be possible the end of the run with what the Euro is showing. will happenYou should see a trough maybe around the 16th then maybe a stout -PNA,even the GEFS is showing this today with +epo/ao,chances are for a White Cristmas right now looks blah

Yeah you can't blame them.I remember a couple/ few ago we was in a WSW,it did nothing but rain from a unexpected warm nose the models never picked up on

National Weather Service Nashville TN 207 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2019 .DISCUSSION... It`s fairly breezy this afternoon with quite a bit of cloud cover scattered over the area. The southerly breeze is pulling moisture northward as a broad area of low pressure is organizing over the Rocky Mountain foothills. That is in response of a negatively- tilted longwave trough digging into the western CONUS. Closer to home, a stray shower can`t be ruled out through the rest of the daylight hours as moisture advection continues. The broad area of low pressure will slide east this evening before lifting northeast through the day tomorrow. Models have cut back on the QPF and coverage of shower activity tonight through the first half of Monday. Coverage will increase ahead of frontal passage which will occur Monday night. Behind the cold front, things get interesting. Models are producing quite a bit of post frontal QPF thanks to southwesterly upper flow and a strong jet streak to the north of the area. This will leave Middle Tennessee in the right entrance region of that jet streak Tuesday/Tuesday night. Temperatures will drop through the day on Tuesday and rain will transition to snow with a period of sleet possible in between. Models, besides the Euro, seem bullish with the snow amounts. There`s a couple of reasons for that. Omega in the snow growth region is quite impressive for the Tuesday time frame and frontogenesis is strong due our positioning relative to the jet streak. With any winter weather setup in Middle Tennessee, there are always some potential red flags. First and the most frequent question with post frontal snow events around here is how long will moisture stick around. Model soundings show the low levels beginning to dry out a couple hours after the rain to snow transition. Seeder feeder processes may prolong the snow a couple more hours, but it is something to take note of. Second, it will take some time or decent snowfall rates to get snow to begin to accumulate given warm, wet surfaces. Lastly, if there is a prolonged transition from rain to sleet to snow, that will obviously cut down on snow amounts. All this leads to a low confidence forecast at this time, but we trended toward a slightly snowier forecast. For most of the area, the current forecast is for less than an inch. The northern Plateau and along the Kentucky border could see a little more than an inch. There is plenty that could change over the next 24-48 hours so stay tuned.

Heres the NMME'S,for some reason not all the plots updated so i deleted the last maps

These last three strong +IOD events have led into at least a moderate to strong LaNina the follwoing year.1995-moderate...1998-strong....2007-strong Few of the seasonals are starting to pick up on a possibly developing LaNina upcoming. The cold pool down into the subsurface continues to shift further eastward,so seems possible right now we are starting to see a developing or Nina conditions in it's early stages

I'd be happy with a dusting right now

The older days you would get excited with the Euro,not sure these days

Just not to confuse the text above,the total would be around 1.5",nothing more

I dont know the soundings for the NW RIM other than Paducah,Euro tho keeps showing the colder air getting in faster,not sure i believe it,would be around a inch and a half per inclements 3hrs for BNA ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z DEC08 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 3/6 SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP HR LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 00Z 08-DEC 7.5 5.2 134 9927 00003 SUN 03Z 08-DEC 5.6 4.7 134 10240 11004 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 4.2 4.2 134 10207 13004 SUN 09Z 08-DEC 6.2 3.6 134 10186 16006 0.00 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 7.1 3.6 134 9998 17007 0.00 SUN 15Z 08-DEC 10.8 3.8 134 9927 17008 0.00 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 14.3 4.6 135 10453 17010 0.00 SUN 21Z 08-DEC 13.9 6.3 135 10684 17008 0.00 MON 00Z 09-DEC 12.2 6.9 135 10743 17008 0.01 MON 03Z 09-DEC 12.0 7.5 135 10544 17009 0.00 MON 06Z 09-DEC 12.2 8.0 135 9931 17009 0.01 MON 09Z 09-DEC 12.1 7.9 135 9806 17010 0.01 MON 12Z 09-DEC 12.9 9.5 136 9718 18011 0.02 MON 15Z 09-DEC 14.4 9.8 136 10323 19012 0.00 MON 18Z 09-DEC 17.2 10.3 137 10289 20013 0.00 MON 21Z 09-DEC 17.1 9.5 137 10510 21010 0.01 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 15.9 10.6 137 10277 21011 0.05 TUE 03Z 10-DEC 16.0 10.7 137 10189 21009 0.04 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 15.7 9.9 137 10471 23008 0.06 TUE 09Z 10-DEC 13.6 8.4 136 10957 32009 0.05 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 7.9 6.2 133 10935 34009 0.14 TUE 15Z 10-DEC 4.1 3.1 131 9804 34009 0.14 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 2.1 1.3 130 8015 34007 0.26 TUE 21Z 10-DEC 1.8 0.4 130 4413 00005 0.10 WED 00Z 11-DEC 0.9 -1.1 129 272 35005 0.17 WED 03Z 11-DEC 0.7 -1.3 129 207 00005 0.04 WED 06Z 11-DEC 0.2 -0.7 129 216 35004 0.04 WED 09Z 11-DEC -0.9 -0.6 129 37 34005 0.00 WED 12Z 11-DEC -3.8 -0.9 129 0 0000

Yeah,the Euro use to be gold around 5 days out,its still the best but it still seems the last few years could bust badly even in this time frame

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 47.2 41.9 36003 100 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 51.6 43.6 43.4 41.6 33003 0 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 43.4 38.2 39.1 38.3 10004 0.00 0.00 97 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 40.2 39.0 40.1 38.8 15004 0.00 0.00 5 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 61.1 40.1 61.2 50.7 18009 0.00 0.00 81 MON 00Z 09-DEC 62.7 55.8 55.6 51.3 16006 0.00 0.00 96 MON 06Z 09-DEC 56.8 55.5 56.2 53.1 18010 0.00 0.00 98 MON 12Z 09-DEC 56.2 54.9 55.2 50.6 19012 0.00 0.00 99 MON 18Z 09-DEC 61.1 55.1 61.3 57.2 20015 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 63.6 61.3 63.3 60.7 21009 0.02 0.00 99 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 63.4 56.6 56.4 53.4 31007 0.01 0.00 98 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 56.5 44.7 44.6 42.3 35010 0.15 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 44.6 37.2 37.1 31.8 00012 0.08 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 37.2 34.7 35.3 22.2 02006 0.08 0.08 99 WED 06Z 11-DEC 35.6 32.0 31.8 17.7 02006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 11-DEC 31.8 27.6 27.5 15.8 04004 0.00 0.00 0

I know,but you live in a better enviornment than us ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV LAT= 35.95 LON= -85.08 ELE= 1880 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 53.5 39.8 03001 78 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 56.1 44.0 43.8 39.5 06004 4 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 43.8 41.0 41.3 38.9 15006 0.00 0.00 5 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 42.9 41.1 42.1 38.8 16008 0.00 0.00 89 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 53.1 41.7 53.2 39.5 17010 0.00 0.00 23 MON 00Z 09-DEC 53.7 48.7 49.1 38.1 17010 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 09-DEC 49.8 47.1 47.0 43.0 17011 0.02 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 48.9 46.6 48.6 47.1 18011 0.04 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 56.5 48.6 56.7 53.0 19014 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 59.5 56.3 57.9 54.4 20010 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 58.0 56.8 57.4 56.4 21009 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 57.8 55.7 55.6 55.5 25003 0.20 0.00 99 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 55.9 44.5 44.3 41.9 34009 0.21 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 44.3 34.9 34.8 34.5 35009 0.45 0.01 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 34.8 31.0 31.0 27.9 36006 0.27 0.21 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 31.0 26.3 26.1 21.5 33005 0.01 0.01 15 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 51.2 37.5 35002 24 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 52.6 41.2 40.9 35.0 05005 26 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 41.0 37.4 38.0 35.5 12005 0.00 0.00 13 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 38.1 35.4 36.0 33.2 12005 0.00 0.00 12 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 52.7 35.8 53.0 35.7 16006 0.00 0.00 92 MON 00Z 09-DEC 54.8 44.3 44.3 32.5 14006 0.00 0.00 81 MON 06Z 09-DEC 46.5 42.7 46.3 37.3 16005 0.01 0.00 99 MON 12Z 09-DEC 47.9 44.3 47.2 46.8 16006 0.14 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 57.8 47.1 58.1 51.6 19007 0.08 0.00 99 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 61.6 57.3 57.3 52.4 21006 0.01 0.00 98 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 57.4 55.0 55.6 52.3 22005 0.02 0.00 99 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 55.7 53.9 54.2 53.5 19004 0.05 0.00 99 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 58.2 53.8 55.0 54.8 32007 0.32 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 55.0 43.3 43.1 43.0 35006 0.57 0.00 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 43.1 34.7 34.5 34.2 34004 0.32 0.01 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 34.5 31.8 31.7 30.1 32004 0.24 0.20 100