jaxjagman

Slight warming,other than 1.2 every other region is above 0.5

There has been some good rises in the SST's in the NEPac recently,just what the EPS is showing in it's 10 day forecast you should see the PDO uptick and not down

That is not a -PDO look right now

pdo.eps

See what the visualization maps show when they update.But this looks like it could be the strongest +IOD on record,per JAMSTEC

JAMSTEC isn't backing down on the cold,it's been showing cold since the Sept update

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

Have to wait and see what the thermocline looks like after this KW passes.Sure looks like after the IO weakens into the first part of Dec the MJO and/or another WWB could be headed towards the IDL,you still have to look at right now where the warmer waters are right now into the subsurface which are more right now east of the IDL,really don't see how anyone right now could say this is more west/central based Nino pattern and not east..IMHO

Waiting on Jamstec to update, the last couple updates it's been cold in the east,should happen anytime soon.The IOD looks to stenghten some what in upcoming but looks to slowly weaken into the 3rd week of Nov as the monsoonal flow is getting into the Sothern Hemispehere slowly seemingly

MJO is fixing to creep along the westen IO once again as the IOD stenghtens once again around Mid Nov, have to see what the Kelvin does and what kind of upwelling comes with iinto 3.4 and 3,this seems likely more of a chance to be more east based and not west,upcoming.

Yeahh,could see a nice storm upcoming with the SOI.Have to wait and see how it plays out

Not a whole lot of change from the last update,you have your cold and warm,gonna be tough to get a Nina into winter with what the subsurface looks like right now.Not really sure what the GEM and Nasa is looking at into winter

NMME

Have to wait and see what these look like the next week or two with a KW moving across the IDL,3 could take a big spike upwards

Subsurface continues to warm east of the IDL,into the IO there looks to be a Rossby Wave that will weaken the ongoing winds for a few days but towards the Mid month they look like they will return once again.By the looks right now the MJO seems to reappear in East Afica towards the middle of Nov then stall out once again into the western IO,have to wait to see if it might happen,but sure looks that way right now

The BOM and SINTEX have different readings which you'd expect anyways of the DMI.BOM shows the DMI as been the highest ever a week or two ago at( 2.16.)While Sintex shows the highest peak was Nov 14,1997 at (2.202). 1994 by SINTEX came in 3rd when it peaked in Mid Oct of that year at (2.082) During or after the peak both of these years 1994,1997 the ONI rose into into a stronger Nino into winter on the ONI 1994 went into a moderate Nino 1997 went into the the 2ND strongest Nino ever The following year 1995 and 1998 went into a Nina in" JJA." on the tri-monthlies (-0.5) IN 1995 which ended up a moderate Nina into the winter months (-0.8) IN 1998 which ended up a very strong Nina into that winter but this was a very long lived Nina in whole that last until early 2001

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast States to the Cumberland Plateau through early morning Thursday. ...Central Gulf Coast to the Cumberland Plateau... Two primary convective scenarios are apparent through the period. A leading low-level warm advection regime is supporting a swath of ongoing showers with embedded thunder from the central Gulf Coast through AL. A belt of strong low-level flow centered on northern AL will pivot northeast, becoming increasingly separated from the gradient of weak buoyancy to the south. Poor mid-level lapse rates and pervasive stratus should support only meager buoyancy overlapping where enlarged low-level hodographs can persist. While it seems unlikely that any of the clusters will have sustained intensification, a low probability risk for locally strong gusts and a brief tornado will exist through the afternoon. Upstream convective development will be tied to an initially weak warm conveyor region across the Lower MS Valley. Some thinning of cloud coverage is apparent across southern LA into far southern MS which should aid in a confined plume of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg at peak heating). This should aid in late afternoon/early evening storm development just ahead of a weak surface cyclone tracking from the Sabine Valley to the Ark-La-Miss. However, the bulk of strong mid/upper-level flow attendant to a shortwave trough ejecting from the southern Rockies to the Lower MO Valley will lag behind the warm sector through mid to late evening. Cyclogenesis will ensue farther north tonight as tropospheric flow amplifies. However, stronger shear and forcing for ascent should remain misaligned north of where the northern extent of weak surface-based buoyancy can advect across portions of northern MS/AL to middle/eastern TN. The most likely scenario is still for low probability coverage of wind/tornado hazards across the Lower MS and TN Valleys, though the region will be monitored for a possible level 2 categorical risk in later updates.

Not much change this update

By the CFS the IOD is showing to maybe finally breaking down past the Mid month.the RMMM's will be nothing but noise until then.still looks like at least some sort of WWB into the 2nd week of Nov that could possibly bring a Kelvin east of the IDL.Maybe and seemingly the MJO will become relevant once again and move past the mid month and more into the 3rd week of Nov.

Have to wait and see upcoming,both the GFS and Euro this afternoon shows a chance of severe thunderstorms even Wed NOW.The last run of the Euro, last nights 0Z run compared to this afternoons run has sped the front up almost 6 hours and now brings it across the Mid Valley now 18z Thursday and then to the east but it strenghtens the LLJ as it seemingly crosses east of I-65,GFS is still faster and WPC shows it as the outlier.Looks like the heaviest rain by the Euro is east of I-65 could get 3-4",could even be higher with convection

Those straight line winds must have been howling

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent runs of the medium-range guidance have come into better agreement regarding the position of a deep and broad upper trough expected to be over the CONUS on D4/Tuesday. Model consensus now places this trough from the Hudson Bay through northern CA at 12Z D4/Tuesday. Model consensus regarding the overall evolution of this upper trough is also good, although the speed of eastward progression differs. The faster GFS solution is currently the outlier. Progression of this system and its attendant cold front will dictate the quality of moisture return ahead of it as well as the location for any potential severe thunderstorms. Some severe threat may materialize across the Southeast/TN Valley mid-week but model differences are too high for enough forecast confidence to outlook any areas.

Must have been a brutal warm winter that winter in our parts with the PDO crashing in fall into winter https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1952.9933398?journalCode=vwws20