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jaxjagman

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  1. jaxjagman
    Man can you imagine if the MJO were to actually regress back into the Maritime
  2. jaxjagman
    I thought it was the rims a that blocked it off last year because of the rains but this was in Feb i though,seems to early to have these big rains with record PW's which seems possible
  3. jaxjagman
    You probably live by the rims?We saw this last year i believe if i remember right?Didnt it shut down 65?
  4. jaxjagman
    Which big mountain cliff do i jump from..lol
  5. jaxjagman
    Ugly
  6. jaxjagman
    Son has a gymnastics meet this weekend in Atlanta so i'm sure it will snow here.Euro has maybe a dusting or 0.03 in TYS after the next system Tuesday,basically still cold chasing rain,so sick of the nick and dime crap we see every year.
  7. jaxjagman
    Just saying what the GEFS IS SHOWING
  8. jaxjagman
    Doubt there is a prayer until you at least get rid of the atmospheric river going through the Bahas which is more from the MJO going into the Maritime,we can get cold before then but what's being shown around 10 days,good luck
  9. jaxjagman
    You'll never get cold locked in the Vallley with an Atmospheric River coming through the BAJAS and a HP along the Aleutian Islands,this still would be a -PNA that's just going to set up some big rains in the Valley
  10. jaxjagman
    I thought i seen this look last year,did some,pretty impressive close with the GOM ATMOSPHERIC RIVER that happened then,this probably wont ever happen it's the GFS long range but some of synoptics are close.. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Serious-Flooding-Threat-Looms-Tennessee-Valley-Week-and-Beyond
  11. jaxjagman
    Do the martinins come with the room?
  12. jaxjagman
    Nice room,where is this?
  13. jaxjagman
    Not many great signs for the coldest month of the year
  14. jaxjagman
    Ill be in Atlanta next weekend,so you can bet your ass off it if you live here,its going to happen..lol ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z DEC30 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 30-DEC 56.8 56.0 04004 100 MON 06Z 30-DEC 58.8 52.6 52.4 50.0 25011 34 MON 12Z 30-DEC 52.4 45.0 44.8 35.7 24008 0.00 0.00 65 MON 18Z 30-DEC 47.2 42.3 47.4 28.9 24010 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 31-DEC 49.2 43.9 43.8 27.2 25007 0.00 0.00 11 TUE 06Z 31-DEC 43.8 40.6 41.1 27.7 25007 0.00 0.00 38 TUE 12Z 31-DEC 41.1 35.7 35.9 24.0 26007 0.00 0.00 34 TUE 18Z 31-DEC 44.1 35.5 44.3 26.9 25008 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 01-JAN 45.9 39.9 39.7 27.2 26006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 01-JAN 39.7 35.3 35.2 26.4 24006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 01-JAN 35.2 31.1 31.0 25.1 24005 0.00 0.00 14 WED 18Z 01-JAN 47.5 30.4 47.7 26.8 24005 0.00 0.00 70 THU 00Z 02-JAN 50.0 42.6 42.5 29.5 18006 0.00 0.00 96 THU 06Z 02-JAN 42.5 40.5 41.2 29.0 18007 0.00 0.00 97 THU 12Z 02-JAN 44.6 40.8 42.6 36.6 18008 0.04 0.00 100 THU 18Z 02-JAN 46.6 41.1 46.7 46.4 16009 0.21 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 03-JAN 48.4 46.6 47.7 47.3 15005 0.55 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 03-JAN 49.8 47.6 50.0 49.7 17009 0.39 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 03-JAN 53.3 49.9 53.2 52.1 19010 0.20 0.00 99 FRI 18Z 03-JAN 60.0 53.0 60.2 50.5 20013 0.01 0.00 85 SAT 00Z 04-JAN 60.7 51.3 51.1 39.9 25011 0.02 0.00 81 SAT 06Z 04-JAN 51.2 43.5 43.3 31.6 27009 0.00 0.00 92 SAT 12Z 04-JAN 43.3 39.1 39.0 30.7 24007 0.00 0.00 89 SAT 18Z 04-JAN 39.8 38.1 39.7 27.3 27012 0.02 0.01 57 SUN 00Z 05-JAN 39.9 36.2 36.2 21.7 27010 0.02 0.02 96 SUN 06Z 05-JAN 36.2 31.8 31.6 21.3 26006 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 12Z 05-JAN 31.6 28.1 28.1 21.4 21006 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 18Z 05-JAN 45.1 28.1 45.5 22.8 21010 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 06-JAN 49.6 41.8 41.7 27.8 20006 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 06-JAN 41.7 36.9 36.8 28.9 21005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 06-JAN 36.8 32.9 32.9 29.4 19004 0.00 0.00 1 MON 18Z 06-JAN 49.9 32.4 50.0 36.8 31003 0.00 0.00 2 TUE 00Z 07-JAN 51.4 42.8 42.7 23.8 35008 0.00 0.00 98 TUE 06Z 07-JAN 42.7 32.4 32.2 18.1 35008 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 12Z 07-JAN 32.2 24.6 24.6 17.4 35005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 07-JAN 36.2 23.8 36.5 15.7 33002 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 08-JAN 39.0 34.0 33.9 22.1 29005 0.00 0.00 100 WED 06Z 08-JAN 35.1 29.6 29.5 23.7 31007 0.03 0.03 49 WED 12Z 08-JAN 29.5 24.1 24.0 10.5 32011 0.00 0.00 100 WED 18Z 08-JAN 25.1 23.6 25.1 7.0 31009 0.00 0.00 100 THU 00Z 09-JAN 25.4 22.6 22.6 4.4 32007 0.00 0.00 92
  15. jaxjagman
    Least most of us might have a chance of snow next weekend,nothing much for Memphis tho :(.It might feel like winter tho..lol ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA LAT= 35.03 LON= -85.20 ELE= 689 00Z DEC30 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 30-DEC 64.7 60.3 15012 100 MON 06Z 30-DEC 65.3 59.0 57.8 56.2 26012 100 MON 12Z 30-DEC 57.9 46.9 46.7 41.4 25006 0.01 0.00 37 MON 18Z 30-DEC 50.8 45.6 51.0 32.0 25008 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 31-DEC 52.2 44.6 44.4 31.4 24006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 06Z 31-DEC 44.4 39.4 39.3 29.7 25006 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 12Z 31-DEC 39.3 35.8 35.8 27.7 26006 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 31-DEC 45.6 35.4 45.8 27.5 27007 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 01-JAN 47.7 40.5 40.3 29.4 25006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 01-JAN 40.3 35.9 35.8 28.2 27005 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 01-JAN 35.8 32.1 32.0 25.8 26004 0.00 0.00 2 WED 18Z 01-JAN 46.8 31.4 47.0 26.3 27004 0.00 0.00 87 THU 00Z 02-JAN 49.4 42.7 42.6 30.6 20004 0.00 0.00 98 THU 06Z 02-JAN 42.6 39.8 40.2 31.2 18005 0.00 0.00 100 THU 12Z 02-JAN 42.4 39.7 42.3 31.6 17006 0.01 0.00 100 THU 18Z 02-JAN 43.9 40.2 43.9 43.7 14006 0.25 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 03-JAN 44.7 43.5 44.3 44.0 16007 1.04 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 03-JAN 50.5 44.3 49.8 49.1 19005 0.25 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 03-JAN 52.4 48.8 52.4 52.3 18006 0.22 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 03-JAN 55.5 52.1 55.5 52.6 19007 0.06 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 04-JAN 56.9 54.3 54.2 50.0 21008 0.01 0.00 40 SAT 06Z 04-JAN 54.2 44.9 44.7 39.1 26007 0.02 0.00 70 SAT 12Z 04-JAN 44.9 40.0 39.9 31.7 24006 0.00 0.00 35 SAT 18Z 04-JAN 42.5 38.3 41.2 26.7 26014 0.08 0.04 57 SUN 00Z 05-JAN 41.4 35.1 35.0 19.7 28009 0.01 0.01 35 SUN 06Z 05-JAN 35.0 31.6 31.5 21.5 27006 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 12Z 05-JAN 31.5 27.5 27.5 21.1 24004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 05-JAN 43.8 27.3 44.1 23.5 24007 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 06-JAN 47.9 40.2 40.1 26.7 21006 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 06-JAN 40.1 35.0 34.9 27.8 21004 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 06-JAN 35.1 32.4 32.4 27.5 21003 0.00 0.00 0 MON 18Z 06-JAN 51.5 32.0 51.8 35.0 23004 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 07-JAN 55.0 48.9 48.8 38.9 30005 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 07-JAN 48.8 41.0 40.9 26.3 01006 0.00 0.00 96 TUE 12Z 07-JAN 40.9 30.2 30.0 17.3 36008 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 07-JAN 38.5 28.1 38.8 13.8 35006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 08-JAN 40.8 32.9 32.7 17.7 31006 0.00 0.00 1 WED 06Z 08-JAN 32.7 30.5 31.7 20.9 30006 0.00 0.00 97 WED 12Z 08-JAN 31.7 26.2 26.1 18.0 31008 0.00 0.00 53 WED 18Z 08-JAN 27.7 24.7 27.8 10.6 31009 0.00 0.00 99 THU 00Z 09-JAN 27.8 24.1 24.0 6.4 32008 0.00 0.00 89
  16. jaxjagman
    We really are not going to get any help with the PV it seems.When you have these strong +IOD events you never have a SSWE,1994,1997,2006,only in 2006 which formed a weak ElNino into winter was the only year to have at least a SSW and the ONI was similar to this year.All three of those years were follwed by an LaNina into next winter.I was just looking at Berlin and the PV looks almost stacked from 10hpa to 100hpa,10 days out around the pole
  17. jaxjagman
    But unless the MJO loses amptitude,you'll never be right with what you show
  18. jaxjagman
    If you are right this would give more credence to the Euro being more right with the MJO.I put the closest starting point towards the end of your analogs and this is where the MJO was 11-12at the starting point,definite if you are right this would be into the cold phases later on
  19. jaxjagman
    Right,the CFS and Euro has been consistent with the signal.The Euro wants to get the signal strong into the Maritime.CFS looks quite different and the GEFS today is looking less Euro as it wants to progress the signal faster into the WP.If the Euro is right you and stays amped up you might give more prudence to the map Raindance shows
  20. jaxjagman
    Everyday we see what coud change,at least .The models flip and say,"fooled you again" ...lol/:(
  21. jaxjagman
    I bet Nolensville Rd past downtown Nolensville is blocked off.Mill creeek can do this
  22. jaxjagman
    Our back yard is under water,really rare because the creek behind our house rarely flows over
  23. jaxjagman
    We live by Concord road just off Concord Pass
  24. jaxjagman
    Ha...yeah i'm with you we've been flooding here,they just put us in a warning Flood Warning National Weather Service Nashville TN 604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 ...The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a flood warning for the following rivers in middle Tennessee... Mill Creek Near Nolensville affecting Davidson County . Heavy rain over the last few hours has caused rapid rises along Mill Creek at Nolensville. The creek has reached flood stage. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Avoid flooded areas along the river...And move personal belongings to higher ground. Never drive through flooded roads as the depth of water may be too great to pass...Even in trucks or sport utility vehicles. If you come across a flooded road...Turn around don`t drown. Stay tuned to noaa weather radio or other local media for further information from the National Weather Service. && TNC037-301204- /O.NEW.KOHX.FL.W.0045.191230T0004Z-000000T0000Z/ /NLVT1.1.ER.191229T2327Z.191229T2330Z.000000T0000Z.UU/ 604 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tn has issued a * Flood Warning for The Mill Creek Near Nolensville * From this evening until further notice. * At 05PM Sunday the stage was...13.1 feet * Flood stage is 13.0 feet. * At 16.0 feet...Further flooding of the athletic fields at Lighthouse Christian School, property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and property in the Concord Village shopping center is occurring. Water approaches properties along Bluff Rd and Nolensville Pike south of Concord Rd. * At 15.0 feet...Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and Bluff Rd west of Nolensville Pike are flooded and impassable. Water begins to flood property in the Concord Village shopping center at Concord Rd and Nolensville Pike, and water approaches low lying areas near A.Z. Kelley Elementary School. * At 14.0 feet...Culbertson Rd and Bluff Rd near Nolensville Pike at the Chandler Harris bridge are flooded. Water begins to flood the athletic fields at Lighthouse Christian School and property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd. * At 13.0 feet...Water begins to flood low lying areas along the creek, including portions of Culbertson Rd east of Nolensville Pike and walking trails near the Honey Brook subdivision. Water also approaches Bluff Road west of Nolensville Pike. * At 12.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek, including property near Bell Rd and Blue Hole Rd, and the athletic fields near Lighthouse Christian School. Water may also approach low lying areas near the Chandler Harris bridge on Nolensville Pike, including portions of Culbertson Rd. * At 11.0 feet...Water begins to inundate low lying areas along the creek.
  25. jaxjagman
    Finally put us in a flood advisory,lots of our creeks are running over,some good rains today Flood Advisory National Weather Service Nashville TN 506 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 TNC037-147-165-187-189-300100- /O.NEW.KOHX.FA.Y.0159.191229T2306Z-191230T0100Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Davidson TN-Sumner TN-Williamson TN-Wilson TN-Robertson TN- 506 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019 The National Weather Service in Nashville has issued a * Flood Advisory for... Davidson County in Middle Tennessee... Southern Sumner County in Middle Tennessee... North central Williamson County in Middle Tennessee... Northwestern Wilson County in Middle Tennessee... Southeastern Robertson County in Middle Tennessee... * Until 700 PM CST. * At 505 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area. Area creeks are rising quickly and may flood some low areas. This includes Mill Creek, Richland Creek, Browns Creek, Seven Mile Creek, and Mansker Creek. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Gallatin, Nashville, Madison, Hendersonville, Brentwood, Mount Juliet, Goodlettsville, Millersville, Greenbrier, Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Belle Meade, Lakewood, Ridgetop, Hermitage, Rural Hill, Bellevue, Antioch, Belinda City and Old Hickory.
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