jaxjagman

Have to wait and see but if there is a more occuled system there would be a potential of strong thunderstorms that would be along the WF lifting N,seems most of the models are showing this set-up right now

Looking like the rossby wave train is coming through NA the next several days.We already have some flood threat upcoming,long range models are hinting at a occluded system just before Valentines day.We should be dealing with a flood potential especially the storm before Valentines day.,we'll have to wait and see how the details tho work out.Even tho we have a more -EPO the -PNA looks rather strong right now

Ha..it usually updates to the date stamp

Tropical hasnt updated,can you post the ENSO into the ENSO thread into summer,?It's been showing a LaNina,just curious to see if it still shows it,suspect it will,thanks

Subsurface is almost cool basin wide,no real sign of any sig WWB upcoming tho the CFS does show right now a KW passing east of the IDL which should warm up region 3 past the mid month,if its right

Your lawn looks nice

The MJO looks basically stuck into the Maritime upcoming,.i'm starting to wonder if it can't get even more crappier down the road.Region 3 of the ENSO is cool right now but by the looks there could be a KW upcoming towards the middle of the month which would/could upwell the warmer subsurface to the surface,sure looks possible if the KW is right

The next work week looks sad if you want winter in the Mid Valley,temps could exceed around 15F+ AN. by the Euro and possibly around 3" of rain,possibly more in some locations depending on instability ECMWF minus Climo FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB01 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 01-FEB 3.8 -2.1 -2 43 -9 -8 SAT 18Z 01-FEB 5.5 -4.1 -3 -13 -10 -8 SUN 00Z 02-FEB 4.5 -4.6 -3 -38 -6 -3 SUN 06Z 02-FEB 0.7 0.5 -3 8 1 3 SUN 12Z 02-FEB 0.5 5.0 -5 5 6 10 SUN 18Z 02-FEB 12.6 10.5 -7 -20 10 15 MON 00Z 03-FEB 8.7 12.7 -7 -28 12 17 MON 06Z 03-FEB 6.1 14.6 -6 -30 13 19 MON 12Z 03-FEB 5.2 12.7 -6 -31 13 18 MON 18Z 03-FEB 13.2 11.8 -7 -20 12 18 TUE 00Z 04-FEB 11.7 11.5 -9 25 12 19 TUE 06Z 04-FEB 10.1 8.1 -7 50 11 17 TUE 12Z 04-FEB 9.8 7.7 -7 56 10 15 TUE 18Z 04-FEB 11.6 8.1 -7 51 10 15 WED 00Z 05-FEB 11.9 8.1 -8 1098 50 39.54 9 15 WED 06Z 05-FEB 12.2 9.6 -10 1097 43 39.51 8 16 WED 12Z 05-FEB 12.1 9.3 -10 1098 48 39.69 8 16 WED 18Z 05-FEB 13.2 10.3 -13 1097 43 39.64 6 17 THU 00Z 06-FEB 13.9 10.8 -19 36 4 19 THU 06Z 06-FEB 13.0 10.8 -21 35 1 18 THU 12Z 06-FEB 6.1 8.8 -19 -17 -3 13 THU 18Z 06-FEB 4.1 3.8 -19 53 -9 7 FRI 00Z 07-FEB 3.7 -1.7 -21 -11 -16 0 FRI 06Z 07-FEB -0.1 -8.1 -17 12 -26 -12 FRI 12Z 07-FEB -1.6 -10.7 -14 -27 -28 -17 FRI 18Z 07-FEB 1.8 -9.0 -10 5 -25 -17 SAT 00Z 08-FEB 1.8 -2.6 -10 43 -16 -7 SAT 06Z 08-FEB 4.3 0.9 -7 44 -10 -4 SAT 12Z 08-FEB 4.2 0.2 -5 46 -7 -3

Looks like a pretty crappie look through the Feb,but the details they decribe look about accurate as there looks to be a more stationary Equatorial Rossby Wave around the IDL with Kelvin moving through the IO the next couple days that gets into or around the IDL mid month,past that the MJO signal gets murky Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 15 2020-Fri Feb 28 2020 A complicated perspective emerges when considering possible tropical drivers of the midlatitude circulation as of late January. Over the past week the RMM index tracks the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) inside the unit circle with an accompanying uncharacteristic westward shift driven by equatorial Rossby wave activity, with a recent re-emergence over the West Pacific (Phase 6). Decomposition of canonical equatorial waves suggests this signal is tied to a Kelvin wave near the antimeridian, while dynamical model forecasts of the RMM show the MJO re-emerging over the Indian Ocean or Maritime Continent by the second week of February. At the lower frequencies, the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient remains robust across the Pacific in an east-west sense, with the latest Nino 4 SST anomalies of +0.9 degrees C and Nino 1+2 checking in at -0.2 degrees C. Persistent negative outgoing longwave radiation anomalies have been observed near and just west of the Date Line since late November. Given this complex perspective, any possible MJO influence is downplayed as the envelope appears to be in flux at present with the Phase 6 signal being tied to Kelvin wave activity that typically fails to couple with the extratropics. The convective pattern over the Pacific does project weakly onto a subseasonal El Nino-like response, despite SSTs increasing from east to west. As a result, the resultant Week 3 and 4 outlook primarily leverages dynamical model guidance with some deference to long-term trends and a slight adjustment toward canonical El Nino conditions. Dynamical model circulation guidance generally features a robust negative Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), both of which are consistent with the Week-2 forecast. These patterns translate into an amplified 500-hPa pattern featuring anomalous ridging south of the Aleutians, positively-tilted troughing over the West, and ridging extending from Mexico through New England. The outliers lacking this pattern come from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) model suite, in the way of the CCSM4, GEFS, and FIM models. These three models feature more ridging over the west and weakness or troughing in the East, in line with the typical MJO response to a Phase 6 event. Given the apparent Phase 6 signal being Kelvin-wave oriented, these models are discounted in the construction of the final outlook. Much to the chagrin of any snow lovers in the East, the continued NAO+ outlook and enhanced subtropical ridge over the Southeast favors a tilt toward above-normal temperatures, while the MJO re-emerging over the Maritime Continent would likely further lock in east coast warmth. Troughing across the West results in below-normal temperatures being favored, although there is some uncertainty regarding how far south and east any cold air mass would extend. A west-east dipole favoring above- and below-normal temperatures respectively is forecast across Alaska tied to the forecast ridge-trough pattern across the Pacific and western North America. El Nino influence across the Northern Tier tends to wash out long-term trends which are slightly below-normal, while decadal trends further support the increased chances for above-normal temperatures in the east, resulting in these probabilities being enhanced relative to the dynamical model guidance. The PNA- pattern supports a suppressed Pacific jet resulting in below-normal precipitation chances for areas adjacent to the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast. Dynamical models extend below-normal precipitation chances across the Southwest, further supported by decadal precipitation trends being negative for the region. There is some uncertainty with how far north and east this dry pattern would extend, further confounded by upslope precipitation potential along the High Plains tied to below-normal temperatures behind the anomalous trough. A mean frontal zone can be inferred at the trough-ridge interface, resulting in above-normal precipitation chances being elevated from the Lower Mississippi Valley through Ohio Valley. SST anomalies in the vicinity of Hawaii continue to range from +1 to +2 degrees C, supporting above-normal temperatures being favored across the islands. Model guidance supports a weak gradient in precipitation with wetter (drier) conditions favored across eastern (western) portions of the state, in line with observed conditions across the state in early 2020.

Middle Tennessee Weather History On January 31, 1951... Five inches of snow and ice fall, much of it during the evening, producing a water equivalent of 3.83". This is the greatest one-day precipitation event for January in Nashville's history. This was a heck of a storm in 1951 this time frame https://www.weather.gov/ohx/1951icestorm

That's a pretty sickening look the last couple decades

Looks like possibly a good system down the road" IF " the Bearing Sea rule works out.There is a system coming out of somewhere along the Kamchatka Peninsula that will move into the Aleutians/Bering Sea in about 3-days.So if this were to work out around the 13th of Feb we would see a trough coming back out of East Asia,these type of strong events have led into some extreme cold in the cold season and severe in the warm seasons

Surface has cooled some since the last update in 3.Towards the end of the month into the first of next it looks possibly another KW will get to 3 again,seems possible just as well the MJO could get into 8 unlike what the RMM'S are showing today killing it off in 7.But either way the signal looks weak

Starting to think you were on to something back into early Dec,Seems possible the cold pool waters will get sfifted eastwards thats into 3.The subsurface is cooling west of the IDL,plus we have an active CCKW starting to get past the IDL which should help upwell the warmer subsurface east of it

Subsurface has warmed somewhat,not much change with the surface,not much left of the cooler subsurface in the east as well.

Yeah i have no doubts there are more EF-4 and probably even more EF5 before hand we just dont know

I see what you are saying,but these were downgraded https://www.weather.gov/ohx/forgottenf5

But this was in Alabama,it's marked on that link i posted above from NOAA

There's only been one confirmed F-5 in Tn since 1950,that was the Lawrenceburg one,now if you want to consider parts of Northern Alabama as parts of the Valley,i'd agree with you.Its really insane tho if you look at North Alabama per capita how many F-5'S they had,that's just crazy https://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f5torns.html

I didnt word that right,it was after about 45 min to an hr the convection started after the squall passed.I went back and looked at the K-Index on all the models there shouldn't have beeen much of any post convection,its still lightning and thunder here

Convection of this system seemed to lag behind the main line.We've had thunder now for almost 45 min recently after that main squall passed,every model did a poor job with the mesoscales in our parts

Only been one EF-5,Lawrenceburg

Tornado on the ground in Arkansas,looks to be headed towards Lamar

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes are expected across parts of the southeastern U.S. on Saturday. A risk for damaging wind gusts will include parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... An intense mid-level shortwave trough will rapidly move from the southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes late Saturday night. In the low levels, a surface low initially over east-central AR will develop northeast towards central IN by early evening and subsequently to the NY Adirondacks by Sunday morning. A warm front will advance northward into parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic states while a cold front sweeps east across the central Gulf Coast and OH Valley. ...TN/MS/LA/AL/GA/FL Panhandle... A squall line with a risk for severe gusts will be ongoing Saturday morning from near the OH/MS River confluence south-southwestward into coastal LA and the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Intense wind fields associated with a 100-kt 500mb jet and an 80-kt southerly LLJ will gradually shift east/northeastward during the period in association with the progression of the mid-level trough. Strong low-level mass response and associated advection processes will support the poleward transport of lower 60s degrees F dewpoints into middle TN and upper 60s farther south near I-20. Intense background flow fields and associated very large hodographs will support both the threat for severe gusts with bowing segments in the squall line and a conditional risk for tornadoes with any supercell managing to develop ahead of the squall line or with stronger mesovortices. The risk for significant severe gusts will likely focus with more pronounced bowing segments and longer-lived mesovortices. As the squall line advances across AL into GA late in the day, models are indicating less organization in the line as it encounters slightly weaker instability concurrent with the upper system becoming increasingly displaced from the GA/north FL vicinity. ...OH Valley... The northern periphery of the severe risk (damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado) will likely extend into the OH Valley associated with the northern part of the squall line expected to develop Friday night into Saturday morning. Intense wind fields coupled with a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE would seemingly support a conditional risk for damaging gusts with a fragmented convective band as far north as OH to the southeast of the forecast surface low track. ...Carolinas north into VA/MD... The latest model guidance shows at least weak instability (MUCAPE ranging from 250 J/kg north to 1000 J/kg south) as flow strengthens during the evening into the overnight. CAM guidance suggests the possibility for a re-invigoration of storms east of the Appalachians as low-middle 60s surface dewpoints infiltrate the Carolina/VA Piedmont. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk with this activity during the 04-12z period. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced Wind: 30% SIG - Enhanced Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Smith.. 01/10/2020