jaxjagman

In case no one knew, Pivotal has soundings now on the Euro HI-RES Also the GWO/AAM maps are now functional once again from Dr.Gensini https://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

Loooking like it could be an active tropical season with possibly a LaNina brewing into summer

Even without mesocyclones the wind dmg. could be intense as the gradient tightens,if its right of course

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2020 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe weather episode is expected Day 4-5/Fri-Sat from the Arklatex into the Deep South vicinity. An intense mid/upper trough over the Four Corners and northwest Mexico early on Friday will eject eastward into the southern Plains by 12z Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will develop over TX and shift east/northeast toward central AR by 12z Saturday. Ahead of the low, rich Gulf moisture will stream northward across eastern TX/OK and expand eastward across the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states through Saturday. 60s F dewpoints are forecast to extend as far north as the lower OH Valley by Saturday morning, with upper 60s to near 70s dewpoints over parts of the Arklatex on Friday into much of LA/MS/AL/GA on Saturday. This anomalously rich and broad warm sector will reside beneath a 50-70 kt southerly low level jet and 80+ kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak. While some questions remain over how pristine the warm sector ahead of the surface low and cold front will remain, especially on Saturday, this kinematic and thermodynamic parameter-space will support severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards from the Arklatex into the TN Valley/Gulf Coast states Friday and Saturday. Mixed convective modes are anticipated given the strength of shear, with a QLCS likely developing ahead of the surface cold front. This will support damaging gusts and mesovortex tornado potential. Additionally, any semi-discrete convection that develops ahead of the QLCS will be in an environment capable of supporting supercells and tornadoes, especially from east TX through central MS/AL. Beyond Saturday, a reprieve from severe potential is expected on Day 6/Sun as high pressure builds over the east and the surface cold front stalls near the southeast Atlantic coast and northern Gulf coast. However, some severe potential could return early next week as a mean trough is forecast to persist across the western half of the country while shortwave impulses eject east/northeast from the southern Plains through the Midwest on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. Confidence in how much the airmass will be able to recover and destabilize remains in question, as the southeastern U.S. is forecast to receive quite a bit of rain. As such, confidence is too low to include severe probs at this time. ..Leitman.. 01/07/2020

Looks like a flood potential is going to be real.Pattern reminds me of last year when we see these lows develop to our SW and track right through TN.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2020 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day severe weather episode is expected across portions of the Arklatex into the Deep South vicinity on D5/Fri and D6/Sat. The ingredients for severe thunderstorms will being to fall into place Day 4/Thu as an upper ridge spreads eastward across the eastern U.S. and a large-scale trough intensifies across the western states. At the surface, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop from the Midwest to the western Gulf Coast, allowing rich Gulf moisture to begin streaming northward across east TX and the lower MS Valley vicinity on Thursday. The warm sector will expand through the day on Friday from eastern OK/TX eastward across much of the TN Valley and Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints are expected to be impressive for this time of year, climbing into the mid 60s to low 70s as a deepening surface low shifts eastward across OK/TX on Friday. This will occur as the western trough ejects eastward into the southern Plains and an intense southerly low level jet overspreads the region. Forecast guidance also shows a weak EML emanating from the Mexican Plateau spreading over parts of the region, providing a weak cap that should limit warm sector convection initially. Confidence has increased that a strong vertical shear parameter-space will overlay a high-quality warm sector ahead of the ejecting trough and a southeastward-advancing cold front Friday afternoon through Friday night. As such, a 30% severe delineation has been included for parts of the Arklatex within the broader 15% severe probability area. On Day 6/Sat, severe thunderstorm potential is expected to continue into portions of the TN Valley and the northern Gulf Coast vicinity. Similar to Friday, intense shear parameters and adequate instability will exist across the region as the upper trough becomes more compact and lifts northeast across the mid/lower MS Valley to the OH Valley. 15% severe probabilities will be maintained at this time as questions remain with respect to how pristine the warm sector will remain over MS/AL and vicinity, as well as timing/location of key surface features. That being said, the overall pattern will support severe thunderstorms into Saturday evening across much of the Deep South vicinity. Confidence in severe potential beyond Day 6/Sat is low, though guidance suggests stormy conditions could return to parts of the Southeast on Monday/Monday night. ..Leitman.. 01/06/2020

It's still cool into the subsurface into region 3,that's not going to go away anytime soon

ONI is back into a Nino last update,so we'll see in a couple months 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5

Until then the flood threat will continue maybe into the 3rd week of Jan

The MJO looks to be getting into the Western Pac the midlle of the month,the RMM'S look better than before as they were killing the signal off to fast.Towards and after the middle of the month any signal should be nothing more than a suppressed signal into the Maritime

Right now the Euro shows a warm front lifting northward next weekend.As the WF lifts you should anyways see even a chance of the thunderstorms possibly severe into next weekend As the LLJ starts to strenghten more or less this drives up the Thetea-E along with SB Capes with DP'S getting into the lower 60's,impressive for Jan.With convection some of those totals might be much higher..IMO

Just saying the pna is fixing to crash big time in the long range

Dont think the problem is the short range or even mid range its when the MJO gets into the Maritime this is is when the jet extension starts to cause havoc, along with HP on the Aleutian Islands,this is where you have a more pronounced -PNA.JMHO

who knows if it will be right

Looks like earlier this year into FEB but this is Jan

That's because of the +IOD being so strong,they are on fire

She's back,that's not good..lol

About sick of even looking at the weeklies.EPS around day 9-10 shows the 850's around -20c in SW KY while the Euro today looks around +10c,same time

Rere you see flood watch regardless into Jan

As long as you can get a +pna no doubt,we need help from the Aluetians Edit:corrected the PNA

Thats insane,i really dont have a good feeling about this pattern,so rare

Man this should break seemingly rains,we saw this last Feb,.not Jan

Man can you imagine if the MJO were to actually regress back into the Maritime

I thought it was the rims a that blocked it off last year because of the rains but this was in Feb i though,seems to early to have these big rains with record PW's which seems possible