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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
The MJO looks to be getting into the Western Pac the midlle of the month,the RMM'S look better than before as they were killing the signal off to fast.Towards and after the middle of the month any signal should be nothing more than a suppressed signal into the Maritime- 1,666 replies
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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
jaxjagman replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Right now the Euro shows a warm front lifting northward next weekend.As the WF lifts you should anyways see even a chance of the thunderstorms possibly severe into next weekend As the LLJ starts to strenghten more or less this drives up the Thetea-E along with SB Capes with DP'S getting into the lower 60's,impressive for Jan.With convection some of those totals might be much higher..IMO -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
jaxjagman replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just saying the pna is fixing to crash big time in the long range- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Dont think the problem is the short range or even mid range its when the MJO gets into the Maritime this is is when the jet extension starts to cause havoc, along with HP on the Aleutian Islands,this is where you have a more pronounced -PNA.JMHO- 1,666 replies
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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
jaxjagman replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
who knows if it will be right -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
jaxjagman replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks like earlier this year into FEB but this is Jan -
December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
That's because of the +IOD being so strong,they are on fire- 1,666 replies
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TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
jaxjagman replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
She's back,that's not good..lol -
December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
About sick of even looking at the weeklies.EPS around day 9-10 shows the 850's around -20c in SW KY while the Euro today looks around +10c,same time- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Rere you see flood watch regardless into Jan- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
As long as you can get a +pna no doubt,we need help from the Aluetians Edit:corrected the PNA- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Thats insane,i really dont have a good feeling about this pattern,so rare- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Man this should break seemingly rains,we saw this last Feb,.not Jan- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Man can you imagine if the MJO were to actually regress back into the Maritime- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I thought it was the rims a that blocked it off last year because of the rains but this was in Feb i though,seems to early to have these big rains with record PW's which seems possible- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
You probably live by the rims?We saw this last year i believe if i remember right?Didnt it shut down 65?- 1,666 replies
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Which big mountain cliff do i jump from..lol
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Ugly- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Son has a gymnastics meet this weekend in Atlanta so i'm sure it will snow here.Euro has maybe a dusting or 0.03 in TYS after the next system Tuesday,basically still cold chasing rain,so sick of the nick and dime crap we see every year.- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just saying what the GEFS IS SHOWING- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Doubt there is a prayer until you at least get rid of the atmospheric river going through the Bahas which is more from the MJO going into the Maritime,we can get cold before then but what's being shown around 10 days,good luck- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
You'll never get cold locked in the Vallley with an Atmospheric River coming through the BAJAS and a HP along the Aleutian Islands,this still would be a -PNA that's just going to set up some big rains in the Valley- 1,666 replies
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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread
jaxjagman replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I thought i seen this look last year,did some,pretty impressive close with the GOM ATMOSPHERIC RIVER that happened then,this probably wont ever happen it's the GFS long range but some of synoptics are close.. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Serious-Flooding-Threat-Looms-Tennessee-Valley-Week-and-Beyond- 1,666 replies
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Do the martinins come with the room?