jaxjagman

Warmed up to 35,as soon as the ratios started to fall the snow melted away quickly,cant even tell it snowed any a couple hours ago

Least we got something,temps are slightly colder than modeled,we just hit 32 http://traffic.brentwoodtn.gov/201153.htm

APEC Update

Finally updated

Yeah definite looks better than yesterday,even the Euro isnt as horrid as it was yesterday with the dry air

Wish they'd update the Pentad,no update in almost two weeks it seems like Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 17 February 2020 • Enhanced convection over the Western Pacific amplified over the past week, becoming the more dominant center of action in the tropics. Constructive interference from a Kelvin wave moving eastward out of the Indian Ocean aided in this strengthening. Westward propagating Rossby waves and tropical cyclone activity has led to a stall in the eastward propagation of the convective envelope. • Dynamical model guidance indicates that this enhanced convection is likely to decay over the next week, but possibly continue eastward propagation with the weakened signal. The ECMWF and GEFS guidance show differing solutions on the RMM index as we move into week-2; however, both signals are fairly unorganized, diminishing confidence in forecasts for any strong renewed signal for the MJO toward the end of the month. • Growing anomalous low-level westerly winds along the equator in the western Pacific is starting to show impacts on the upper-oceanic heat content anomalies. This could have further implications for the El Niño state if the downwelling continues, increasing the available warm water at depth across the basin.

My thinking if i'm right this 2nd system what the Euro is showing is coming in to fast towards the NW

Long range models shows a trough going through East Asia today and another few days later.long range models don't show much right now with the first system which should reach the Valley around the 24th but show the 2nd system as more dominant,not sure that's going to be right but this is what long range is showing

Even with what the Euro shows a 1047MBHP during this time into IOWA you'd expect some height falls but the raging jet just won't let it happen

700MB are quite juicy,it's when you get to the 850mb it's quite dry

Yeah i mentioned this last night in the winter thread with the through going through Korea,this is the time frame you are showing but we'll have to see how the synoptics work out upcoming

This is where your MJO signal is at right now around the dateline.Noticed the GEFS is showing the EPO flipping to - into the last week of Feb,this should happen as these KW'S pass east of Hawaii basically

The strong +AO in Feb of 1990 it had a neutral ONI like this year kinda speaking.This brought on some sig flooding down south of us and into the SE subforum,then into summer the flooding went into the OV.iF the MJO which we dont know right now gets back strong into 4 once again the chances would seemingly be we will have a chance to see once again see some sig flooding,this also has a chance to be an active severe season

That is a beast of a storm in the North Atlantic to fly recon to see how strong the the ocean winds are https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ This in turn should really cool down the NA Tripole.if this were into a transition Nina this would be signs of some potential severe outbreaks into the Plains into the Valley in the warm season

I dont agree with some of the models as well,there's been some hints of the long range models showing a strong system in the long range,there should be a ridge in the east with a potential building +PNA,in all honest this could be more a severe threat in the long range IMO

The pattern looks really similar to the pattern we seen in mid Jan,but its more hostile this round east of the IDL,this is where after the MJO bombed out into the Maritime in Jan

Have to wait and see where the MJO goes towards the end of the month.There is some signs today the WWB won't be as strong as it has been showing BUT still looks like the next several days east of the IDL will be impacted with all kind of waves the next few days. Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300PM EST Fri Feb 14 2020 Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 29 2020-Fri Mar 13 2020 The incipient global tropical convective pattern is complex, with areas of enhanced convection observed both over the eastern Indian Ocean and near the Date Line. The latest RMM-based MJO index, which serves as a predictor for the Week 3-4 multiple linear regression (MLR) statistical forecast, has responded to the latter convective signal, with a West Pacific (Phase-6) projection. Despite this signal, however, the future evolution of the MJO signal is uncertain, so lagged teleconnections to the extratropics are difficult to discern at this time. A pronounced westerly wind burst is ongoing near the Date Line, and this feature may generate an oceanic Kelvin wave that allows warm water to move eastward over the next month or so. While this activity is unlikely to play a substantial role in the global circulation during the Week 3-4 period, it may play a role in the broader Boreal Spring time frame. Dynamical model 500mb height anomaly forecasts for Week 3-4 do not show a substantial change from the persistent positive AO structure observed since the beginning of the calendar year. The CFS, ECMWF, and JMA all show pronounced ridging over the North Pacific, particularly south of the Aleutians, with below-average heights over the Arctic and extending over Greenland and to some extent over Canada. This pattern suggests that the CONUS would be vulnerable to cold air intrusions, but the positive NAO feature over the North Atlantic would make such outbreaks transient in the East. All three dynamical model systems depict a weakness in the height field over the Southwest, which may provide a conduit for Pacific flow into the U.S., particularly across California. While the CFS shows near- to below-normal heights across most of the CONUS, the ECMWF and JMA maintain a Southeast ridge, which may impact where the focus for enhanced precipitation lies. The Week 3-4 temperature outlook is based primarily on a blend of the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA solutions, with the statistical contribution fairly weak due to competing (and uncertain) signals from the MJO and long term trends. In a pattern shift, above-normal temperatures are forecast across Alaska as ridging builds to the south. Below-normal temperatures are favored across much of the northern tier of the CONUS, with a southward extension to the Central Plains due to the potential for cold air intrusions from Canada. Dynamical models also favor increased chances for below-normal temperatures across New England. Below-normal temperatures are also slightly favored along the West Coast, which may be due to SST influences. With high uncertainty and a transient pattern favored during the period, equal chances for above- and below-normal temperatures are maintained across much of the rest of the CONUS, while above-normal heights favor above-normal temperatures for the Florida Peninsula. The area of highest confidence in the precipitation outlook is Alaska, where dynamical models strongly favor enhanced precipitation across the western half of the State and along the North Slope. Below-median precipitation is forecast for the Alaska Panhandle and Pacific Northwest, while Pacific moisture may result in enhanced precipitation for central and southern California and parts of the Great Basin. Further east, the possibility for cold continental airmass intrusions into the central U.S. favor below-median precipitation for the Plains, Great Lakes, and New England. Across the Southeast, a mean frontal boundary is anticipated to set up, with dynamical models favoring the Tennessee Valley (JMA), Appalachians (ECMWF), or the Southeast Coastal Plain (CFS) for enhanced moisture. Based on these various solutions, a fairly broad area of enhanced probabilities for above-median precipitation were included on this outlook for the Southeastern U.S. SST anomalies remain above-normal in the vicinity of Hawaii, although the magnitude of the anomalies have been gradually decreasing. Dynamical model forecasts, including the Subseasonal Experiment (Sub-X) suite, are mixed, so equal chances for above- and below-normal temperatures are maintained across Hawaii. Dynamical models generally favor enhanced precipitation.

That's probably not exactly true to an extent because this has been one of the strongest +AO ever recorced since 1990 Edit:Nevermind,i didnt know this was last year

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0239Z FRI FEB 14 2020 ...UPDATE DATAFLOW PROBLEM WITH WCOSS... IBM and NCO`s Dataflow Team continue to investigate a problem with dataflow to the supercomputers. This is impacting model production and dataflow to various NCEP data feeds and servers, including NOMADS. Users can expect NCEP model delays of 20-40 minutes.

Seemingly,untill the NWS inspects it.Lawrence Co got its 2nd tornado in a week.The first one was a EF-1 that hit downtown Lawrenceburg,luckily that was during the evening or that could have been much worse.Last night one hit towards 5-points.Nashvilles radar seemingly went down as the line got close to us.More than likely as the squall line got to the office on Old Hickory Rd the radar went down for a short time,so there was no alert from this.Luckily no injuries that i'm aware of. https://www.wkrn.com/news/local-news/ema-lawrence-county-hit-again-with-straight-line-winds-possible-tornado/

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0051 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 552 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2020 Areas affected...Portions of the TN & OH Valleys Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 122251Z - 130451Z Summary...A band of heavy rainfall is expected to move across central portions of TN and KY. Hourly rain totals to 1" and local amounts of 2" are expected. Discussion...A developing atmospheric river extending from the Mid-South towards the Ohio River Valley along with increased low level moisture convergence/frontogenesis has led to a band of heavy rainfall producing hourly rain totals to 1" per KY mesonet observations. This band is progressive, though it is moving over and into an area with two week precipitation at 200-300% of average, more to the south across northern AL, which has led to saturated soils. Precipitable water values of 1-1.3" lie here per GPS values. Inflow at 850 hPa is south-southwest at 55-80 knots per VAD wind profiles. MU CAPE is negligible per SPC mesoanalyses. The best guess is that increasing moisture convergence/ frontogenesis has played the main role in hourly rain totals approaching the precipitable water value. The 18z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ per hour increase to likely as the band moves eastward across central KY and Middle TN with a small percent chance of 1" an hour. KY mesonet obs suggest the HREF probability guidance, as well as WSR 88D hourly rainfall totals, are underperforming here. Local amounts of 2" are possible before the line accelerates as it reaches into eastern KY and eastern TN, which could cause issues over saturated soils and area coal fields. Roth

Jamstec seasonals has a update or upgrade one. Be intersting to see how the ocean does.It shows the SST's cooling into the summer but getting warmer into fall once again SINTEX-F2-3DVAR system (Doi et al. 2017). This system is a upgrade version of the SINTEX-F2 ystem in terms of the ocean initialization. In this system, OGCM SSTs are strongly nudged toward the observations in the coupled run continuously from January 1982, which is similar to the simple SST-nudging scheme used in the F2-system. In addition, 3DVAR correction is conducted every 1st day of each month using subsurface ocean temperature and salinity observation. The set of in situ observations consists of all types of ocean profiling instruments that provide temperature and salinity (when available) from the expandable bathythermographs (XBTs), mooring buoys, sea stations, Argo floats, etc. The details of the 3DVAR scheme used here such as formulation and specification of observation and background error covariances are shown in Storto et al. (2014) You can read all the new updates here

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion Last Updated: 02.11.20 Valid: 02.12.20 - 02.25.20 Investigating the current global tropical circulation reveals a complex perspective that may have lasting implications. Of interest are two eastward-propagating convective envelopes with the first currently over the eastern Indian Ocean and the second near the Date Line. In evaluating 200-hPa velocity potential fields, the latter region can be traced back in time through at least late 2019 with several periods of robust projections onto the RMM index during that interval. The former envelope may be shorter-lived, as it has to deal with the relatively hostile environmental conditions in the wake of the leading envelope to its east. Nevertheless, models differ on their handling of these two centers of action, and how dominant the easternmost feature will be, with the GEFS focusing on the eastern feature while the ECMWF allows the Indian Ocean convective center to linger and slowly drift eastward. Unanimous among the models though, is the forecast of a robust westerly wind burst during the second half of February that is likely to trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that reinforces anomalous warm water volume near the Date Line. This bears monitoring for any longer-term implications and any potential El Nino event over the coming months. During the past seven days two tropical cyclones (TC) developed. The first was Tropical Cyclone Damien off the Kimberley Coast of Australia on the 6th, with the system tracking south-southwest before dissipating on the 10th. The second system was TC Uesi which formed in the Coral Sea on the 9th of February. Uesi has slowly tracked southward and is forecast to approach the east coast of Australia late this week before turning toward New Zealand. Areas being monitored for TC potential during the next two weeks include within the South Pacific convergence zone just south of American Samoa (high confidence during Week-1), the Mozambique channel (moderate confidence during Week-1, with development also possible in very early Week-2), or the central portion of the South Indian Ocean (low confidence during Week-1, with no TC shape forecast and instead a moderate confidence of above-normal rains area). The precipitation outlooks during the next two weeks take on somewhat of a character that features a West Pacific MJO (Phase 6 during Week-1, Phase 7 during Week-2) with increased uncertainty over the Indian Ocean with the second eastward moving envelope of enhanced convection and what role it may play amidst what would be conditions that are typically hostile to convective development. Highest confidence for enhanced rains are east of New Guinea with some extension into the South Pacific during both weeks. Confidence is high for anomalous dryness from the Timor Sea through Coral Sea during Week-1, which is replaced by a wetter pattern during Week-2. High confidence also exists for above-normal precipitation for portions of the west coast of South America, tied to sea surface temperature anomalies of 1-2 degrees above-normal combined with onshore flow oriented perpendicular to the Andes. Anomalous ridging over the Northeast Pacific leads to high confidence for continued below-normal precipitation across parts of the western U.S. throughout the outlook, while a tropical moisture feed across Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico into the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys results in high confidence for above-normal rains during Week-1. Remaining precipitation forecasts are in line with either forecast TC tracks or a consensus of dynamical model guidance between the ECMWF and CFS ensembles.

It's going into 8 for sure by the looks,question would be what does it do after?Should be be a CCKW crossing around the IDL the next couple days along with a ERW,by the looks.This should in turn upwell the warm subsurface SST'S along the IDL and east of it,plus you have a WWB which is already underway along the IDL.

Update prepared by the Climate Prediction Center Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 10 February 2020 • A pair of slow-moving envelopes of enhanced convection exist in the global tropics. The first is presently over the Western Indian Ocean, while the second is over the Maritime Continent. • Model guidance disagrees on which of these will come to dominate, with the GEFS emphasizing the latter center of action, while the ECMWF splits the difference and maintains both features. • Given this complicated perspective, extratropical circulation responses to the MJO are difficult to anticipate at this time. • A noteworthy possibility exists for anomalous low-level westerly winds east of New Guinea associated with the easternmost envelope of enhanced convection to potentially trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. This would help to reinforce the volume of warm water available below the surface in the Pacific and possibly fuel an El Niño event.