jaxjagman

Just looking at the GWO we are headed into a favorable stronger tornado threat upcoming in March,doesn't mean it will be into the Valley.Could just be anywhere east of the Rockies.But if the GWO stays out of phase 5 and circulates back we could very well be seeing the transition to a more Nina pattern upcoming.Not sure that will happen,some signs of it could happen tho.Have to wait and see

Yes,you can just as well follow the GWO just as well. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0289.1?mobileUi=0

Subsurface has cooled recently.Surface temps have rose recently which seemingly is by Kelvin and MJO.The Euro shows the MJO going into the IO then gradually lose the signal,we'll see if this is right because there seems to be signals the MJO will get into the Maritime stronger than the Euro shows today

Looking like lots of volatility in the upcoming pattern trying to figure out the mid range into the long range,The trough is coming off East Asia today which already looks like a cluster mess, so it looks like we'll see all kinda of changes upcoming

Alabama now has 6.It keeps growing here in Mid Tn https://twitter.com/TNDeptofHealth/status/1238902725502533633/photo/1

Kansas deserves to be #1. I hope everyone lives through this.My wife doesnt even know what her protocol will be when she goes to Blount Memorial next week,she's a doctor. My son goes to Auburn and he dont even want to come home because there are no cases in Alabama but Middle Tn has the most cases in Tn.We talked to him this morning and said wouldn't you like to be with us,he said..no..lol I'm ok with this tho but sad anyways.But i completely understand,just told him i love him,what else could i do?

See what happens,the GFS has already shifted the Upper level ridge further east tonight and shows a stronger system,just timing

Like Jeff mentioned in his post on the 5th.The Upper level Ridge is fixing to get kicked out to the east around the middle of next week.Right now the Euro and GFS both has a system coming off the Lee.Like always at this range in time we'll have to keep watching, but right now seemingly we should be looking at some possible strong storms towards the end of the work week into the weekend time frame.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2020 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS TO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...NORTHERN TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-weather threat will be during the day from the eastern Ozarks region to the lower Ohio Valley and central Kentucky, featuring tornadoes, damaging wind and isolated large hail. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a strong shortwave trough now over the Gulf of Alaska will move southeastward and amplify, approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest by 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs, a persistent/ cut-off cyclone now offshore from southern CA and northern Baja will pivot northeastward across southern CA and the lower Colorado River Valley tonight. In the northern stream, a series of closely associated vorticity maxima and shortwaves will cause an eastward shift of a synoptic trough now extending from north-central Canada to the central Rockies. By 12Z, this should evolve into a strong/closed cyclone over northern ON north or northeast of Lake Superior, with cyclonic flow southward to the Ohio Valley. Surface analysis at 11Z depicted a low near FSD with cold front arching southwestward over northeastern CO, then into southern WY. Another low was located over central KS near GBD, with warm front east-southeastward over the Ozarks western/mid TN, and the Carolinas. The northern low should move northeastward to near Lake Superior and deepen considerably by 00Z in response to mid/upper- level cyclogenesis. Meanwhile, the southern low should become a triple-point feature as the cold front catches up, and is expected to shift east-northeastward across central/southern MO to southeastern IL by 00Z. The warm front then should extend across parts of IN/OH and northern WV. Convective boundaries may exist south of the warm front, with more baroclinicity. The cold front should extend across southeastern MO, southeastern OK and northwest TX. By 12Z, the cold front should reach southern PA, middle TN the Arklatex region, and the southern TX Panhandle, with little or no movement over the southern High Plains. ...Ozarks to central KY/northern TN and north TX... Multiple episodes of severe thunderstorms are possible today, most concentrated in and near the "enhanced risk" area, from mid/late morning through afternoon. Supercells and organized multicells are expected, with the potential for a few supercells to mature/persist long enough for a tornado threat. Significant/EF2+ rated tornadoes may occur. Large hail is possible, especially from supercells, and with modes potentially becoming clustered or messy with time, the wind-damage potential will extend farther eastward. The severe threat will extend down the front across AR to parts of north TX, but in briefer, less-organized fashion with southwestward extent. Activity is expected to develop initially in a zone of strong low-level theta-e advection, south of the warm front and southeast of the cold front, with MUCINH weakening as the warm sector destabilizes from both that effect and weak diabatic surface heating. Sustained surface-based parcels are uncertain with this activity, especially in middle/northern parts, given its position on the northern rim of the warm sector in a low-CAPE, moderate to strong-shear setting. A second round of storms will form along the surface cold front with access to greater CAPE and perhaps stronger shear as well. Buoyancy generally will decrease northward through the warm sector. By contrast, hodograph sizes increase, in concordance with: 1. More-backed surface winds nearer to the warm front, and 2. A LLJ strengthening to 50-60 kt through the day, as part of the mass response to the strong trough passing north of the area. That trough also will tighten height gradients and boost deep shear, rendering 45-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes in forecast soundings in the "enhanced" area, weakening southward as pre-cold-frontal flow becomes weaker and more-veered in the boundary layer. A narrow corridor of theta-e advection ahead of the cold front, combined with diurnal heating and relatively steep midlevel lapse rates, will support a ribbon of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, transitioning to pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE south of the warm front as far east as the southern Appalachians, away from areas of persistent convection. ...West-central/southwest TX late tonight... Isolated, perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms may develop overnight -- especially after 06Z. The main concerns would be large hail and damaging gusts. Large-scale ascent will increase across this area the last several hours of the period in two ways: 1. Early-stage mass response to the approaching Pacific perturbation -- a corridor of elevated low-level warm/moist advection from the Rio Grande Valley. 2. Shots of DCVA related to small-scale perturbations (some convectively induced/enhanced back across northwestern MX) ejecting out of the cyclone within southwest flow. Air-mass recovery above a relatively shallow/stable surface layer may support MUCAPE in the 300-700 J/kg range, amidst 40-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Enough residual subcloud drying may persist to support gusts intense enough to penetrate to the surface. Hail is possible, though buoyancy and lapse rates do not appear to support more than marginally severe hail. Concentration of convection in this regime is uncertain, with the potential very conditional. Still, a consistency of synoptic and convection- allowing guidance indicates non-negligible potential for a sustained thunderstorm or two developing in a favorable environment, compelling extension of marginal unconditional probabilities into the region at this cycle. Activity may get as far as north-central TX by the end of the period. ...Portions of AZ/southeastern CA... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop from midday through this afternoon and evening, in an arc of strong large-scale lift across northern Baja, southeastern CA and northwestern Sonora. Isolated severe hail/gusts are possible. This activity should move northwestward over parts of southern CA, northward to northeastward over parts of AZ, beneath correspondingly, strongly difluent mid/upper-level flow east of the cyclone. Antecedent moist advection from subtropical latitudes has resulted in anomalously rich low-level moisture, manifest as 50s to 60s F surface dew points across this region. In concert with continued warm advection and muted diabatic heating beneath the cloud cover, this should yield surface-based effective-inflow parcels across much of the region. Peak MLCAPE will be highly variable (300-1000 J/kg, locally higher) amidst favorably strong mid/upper winds and cloud-layer shear. Mostly multicellular mode is expected, though an isolated supercell or two may occur given the presence of marginal effective shear and low-level SRH in a few forecast soundings.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MID-SOUTH VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the lower Ohio Valley and Mid South into parts of the southeastern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...ArkLaTex Vicinity to the Ohio/Tennessee Valley Region... A shortwave impulse embedded in larger-scale upper trough over the central U.S. will deepen and eject eastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Thursday. The main surface low associated with this system will track eastward across Ontario with a surface cold front extending south/southwest from the Upper Midwest to western portions of the southern Plains during the morning. A warm front will extend eastward from a weak surface low over northern OK into northern AR/western TN early Thursday, lifting northward toward the Ohio River during the day. Strong warm advection ahead of the east/southeastward progressing cold front will allow low-to-mid 60s F dewpoints to overspread the south-central U.S. from eastern OK/TX into parts of KY/TN. Surface heating likely will be limited by cloud cover and areas of ongoing showers, and strong warm advection between 850-700 mb will result in pockets of stronger capping. However, a 40-50 kt southwesterly low level jet will develop by late afternoon/early evening and pockets of MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg are forecast along/just ahead of the cold front/triple point near the MO/AR border southwestward into southeast OK, as well as eastward near the warm front across KY/TN. Semi-discrete cells in the warm sector are possible initially, but clusters are expected to grow upscale into during the evening as vertical shear become aligned with the frontal boundary. All severe hazards appear possible, with hail more likely earlier in storm evolution where midlevel lapse rates are expected to range from 7-7.5 C/km across western portions of the Slight risk area. SRH values greater than 250 m2/s2, and enlarged low level hodographs will support tornado potential in both discrete cells and within any bowing line segments. Furthermore, intense low level wind field will support damaging winds through the evening hours as convection spreads eastward into the OH/TN Valley vicinity. ...Central/Southern Appalachians Vicinity... Several forecast models indicate isolated storms may develop across parts of northern GA into Upstate SC/western NC. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will increase across the region, and backed southeasterly surface winds are forecast as a surface trough develops near higher terrain. There is indication that subtle impulses will eject across the region ahead of the main upper trough, leading to weak upper forcing and low level convergence along the surface trough. Stronger heating is likely this far east, and MLCAPE could climb to near 1000 J/kg with marginal low-to-mid level lapse rates forecast withing an adequately sheared environment. While conditional, any cells that develop could pose a risk for marginal hail/gusty winds. ...Lower Colorado Valley Vicinity... An upper low off the coast of southern CA will pivot eastward toward the Lower CO Valley on Thursday. Surface dewpoints near 60F will spread northward along the CA/AZ border beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Low level shear will be weak, but effective shear will support some organized cells with strong flow expected in mid and upper levels. Instability will be limited, but a couple of strong cells are possible. If trends continue, probability may become warranted in later outlooks, mainly for a marginal hail risk. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2020

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND PARTS OF ADJACENT NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the lower Ohio Valley and Mid South into parts of the southeastern Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Amplifying mid/upper flow characterized by increasingly prominent blocking appears likely to continue to evolve across the eastern Pacific during this period. To the southeast of a building high, becoming centered near the western Gulf of Alaska, a significant short wave trough is forecast to evolve and dig to the west of the British Columbia coast. As this proceeds, models indicate that a downstream mid-level low, initially to the southwest of the southern California coast, will finally begin to slowly accelerate east-northeastward into parts of the Southwest. In advance of the low, downstream mid-level ridging will attempt to build across the southern Rockies through the southern and central Plains and lower/middle Mississippi Valley. However, this may initially be suppressed by a vigorous short wave trough advancing through a more progressive branch of westerlies, from parts of the northern Plains through the Great Lakes by late Thursday night. This interaction may be one source of considerable spread that has been evident among the various models and their respective ensembles, but this spread appears to be decreasing. While guidance indicates that strongest mid-level jet streak (intensifying in excess of 100 kt at 500 mb) will dig through the mid Missouri Valley before nosing eastward across southern portions of the Great Lakes region, another speed maximum (around 50-70 kt at 500 mb) may develop across the central Plains before propagating eastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Models suggest that the southern jet streak may be accompanied by a developing surface low, near the intersection of a cold front trailing the primary cyclone migrating across Ontario, and an initially stalled remnant frontal zone extending across the southern Mid Atlantic coast through the Ozark Plateau and south central Plains at 12Z Thursday. The latter boundary may advance northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley ahead of the secondary low, accompanied by low-level moistening and destabilization in the presence of strengthening vertical shear and large-scale ascent. ...Lower Ohio Valley into Southeastern Plains... In association with the mid-level perturbation, models indicate that a west-southwesterly 850 mb jet will nose from the Ozark Plateau through Kentucky and Tennessee, while strengthening from 30-50+ kt, Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This is expected to support the northeastward advection of a fairly moist boundary layer, characterized by surface dew points in the lower 60s, which may become supportive of CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg, despite fairly modest mid-level lapse rates and the possibility of limited surface heating. Discrete storms may initiate near the Missouri/Arkansas border Thursday afternoon before spreading eastward and intensifying in the presence of strong deep-layer and low-level shear. This may include a few supercells which could pose a risk for tornadoes in addition to severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Eventually large-scale forcing for ascent may support an upscale growing and organizing convective system across western into central Kentucky, and adjacent portions of southern Illinois and Indiana, as well as western and middle Tennessee by Thursday evening. This probably will be accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts, and continuing risk for a couple of tornadoes, before activity weakens during the late evening or overnight. While the main cluster of storms spreads through the lower Ohio Valley Thursday evening, at least scattered additional strong to severe thunderstorms may develop southwestward toward the southeastern Great Plains, where boundary-layer CAPE may be larger, but forcing for ascent weaker ahead of the cold front. ..Kerr.. 03/11/2020

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Ozarks into the Mid-South, lower Mississippi Valley, and central Gulf Coast states today. Isolated damaging winds and large hail may occur, along with a couple tornadoes. ...Ozarks into the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley... A small cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period later this morning across northwestern AR and adjacent southern MO. This convection is expected to continue southeastward across AR and into parts of the Mid-South through the early afternoon in tandem with a 30-40 kt southwesterly low-level jet. These storms will eventually encounter greater low-level moisture across central/southern AR and northern MS as they cross a surface warm front. The potential for strong/gusty winds to reach the surface and produce isolated damage should also gradually increase as diurnal heating occurs ahead of the storms. The southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to gradually weaken through the afternoon as stronger forcing for ascent associated with a large-scale upper trough shifts eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and away from the lower MS Valley. Still, strong northwesterly mid-level flow (50+ kt at 500 mb) will remain over this region, which should support similar values of effective bulk shear. There may be some chance for the bowing cluster to evolve into a broken line of supercells by late morning/early afternoon before the low-level jet weakens substantially. If this occurs, then isolated large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes would be possible, mainly across parts of eastern AR into northern MS where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present. Otherwise, mainly an isolated severe hail/wind threat may continue into parts of northern/central AL through the early evening before instability wanes with eastward extent.

Pretty sure this has been updated,i'll double check in a few days,but this should be "JAS"

In Oct the TNI was at -3.0,this is a record,the closest it's been to Oct was back into 2004 when it was -2.7.If i was to draw any analog year for winter,next year, id start with the 2005 winter just because the ENSO could very well match up with this being with 2004-2005,that would be a starting point anyways https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/tni.long.data

We shall see.Today, there looks to be a ERW moving along the IDL with Kelvin so this is what the RMM'S show the MJO INTO 5 today and should be the next couple days.There seems to be all kinds of mixed signals afterwards.There still looks as there will be some better blocking into the GOA in the Mid to long range,this should choke off the theta into the Valley during this time unless something changes so more than likely as the theta returns it should be more into the plains as the Mid level heights should rise into the Valley Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2020 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model output continues to indicate that mid/upper flow over the eastern Pacific may continue to evolve toward a more prominent blocking regime late this coming work week through next weekend. This may include the development of large-scale troughing and an embedded close low, which could eventually encompass much of the West. As this commences, the remnants of a preceding mid-level closed low may finally emerge from the Southwest. After accelerating east-northeast of the southern Rockies on Friday, guidance suggests that the lead perturbation will undergo considerable weakening and deformation within a confluent regime to the north of prominent subtropical ridging centered over the southern Gulf basin. Furthermore, it appears that this may be preceded by a substantive reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. And any subsequent wave development along the front across the southern tier of the U.S. is currently forecast to remain weak. While destabilization along and particularly above/to the cool side of the surface front may contribute to considerable thunderstorm development during the latter half of the period, severe weather potential currently appears best characterized as "low", with probabilities less than 15 percent. However, it is still possible that this could change in later outlooks much closer to this time period. ..Kerr.. 03/08/2020

NMME'S

Chance of some strong storms. upcoming next week with a trough just passing East Asia recently.Have to see how teleconnections play out past the middle of the month.Euro and GFS tho seem to be hinting at building blocking into the GOA and even as strong as a Rex block,this would/could promote a -AO.Regardless, east Asia is fixing to get active upcoming

https://www.wbir.com/article/weather/77-people-reported-missing-in-putnam-co-after-overnight-tornado/51-ef7324c7-c380-4a56-8f07-0c760cec3de1

Probably right,its just the angle she took the pic.

https://thebig98.iheart.com/content/2020-03-03-nashville-tornado-hurls-car-into-3rd-floor-of-apartment-building/?keyid=WSIX&sc=editorial&pname=local_social&fbclid=IwAR0HgORxm8GrfO1c6LQcDIZxQNApsLmOb3JlqXVrysv9ZBak0jQjlUe1TyY

Channel 2 said a car was parked in a 3rd floor apartment.Had to be at least a EF3.Death toll is up to 10 and people are still missing

https://www.wkrn.com/video/video-drone-footage-of-east-nashville-storm-damage/4373780/

Had to be a EF2 AT LEAST,just saw the news it destroyed a 2-story brick building downtown

OHX has debris falling