jaxjagman

It just started snowing in SE Mo,crazy system

Depends where youre at

Still think you can get some more snow.The inverted trough that helped with the warm nose,the cold front is stationary,we could get a few flakes here maybe but seems to me the higher elevations could get something,wont be much but it seems to me you could squeeze maybe a tenth or so before it done.That map is a hour old

You still could get a bit more snow,there still is moisture to the west,its not totally dry

you should stay snow now

Warm nose was/is more extensive than shown,its all the way up into S/Ky they should be all snow but its rain

Still jus rains ,here we was at 32 then when it seemed the qpfs rose the temps rose to 34,now at 32 again.By the looks we should change over to ip,sn for a brief time before it ends,dont think ill drive anywhere tonight

Nothing but virga here

wInds are east here,S already in West Tn,NW in east,just going by the NWS OBS

We will see,but it sure looks like its gonna be more progressive,MJO

Still don't' believe the Euro is right with the MJO.it's having distructive interference from the CCKW in the Maritime right now and in the end it will be in the WH much quicker than its showing

CFS has been much faster with the signal,shows it getting into the WH before or about the next 2-weeks

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 01/16/24 Valid - 01/24/24 - 02/06/24 Following a period of weakening over the Indian Ocean earlier this month, the MJO became much more organized during the past week. Latest RMM observations show the MJO signal propagating eastward into the Maritime Continent (phase 4), and steadily gaining amplitude, which is well reflected by a reemerging wave-1 pattern in the 200-hPa velocity potential anomaly fields. A large uptick in MJO amplitude is heavily favored in the dynamical models during the next week, which appears to be tied to constructive interference with a convectively coupled Kelvin Wave propagating out of the Indian Ocean. This wave phasing is likely to promote widespread enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent, which has been otherwise persistently dominated by a suppressed convective El Nino response. Even with the MJO continuing to destructively interfere with the low frequency El Nino conditions, intraseasonal activity is largely favored to remain coherent during the next several weeks. Very good agreement exists in the RMM forecasts depicting a high amplitude event propagating eastward into the Western Pacific during the next two weeks, where the MJO looks to eventually constructively interfere again with base state over the Equatorial Pacific. Ensemble spread increases in the extended range, however many solutions (especially the GEFS) continue to maintain a high amplitude event, taking the MJO signal back into the Western Hemisphere by the first or second week of February. A healthy, eastward propagating MJO is expected to provide increasingly favorable conditions for Tropical Cyclone (TC) development over parts of the southern Indian Ocean, as well as the Western Pacific on both sides of the Equator. And in light of aforementioned convective pattern reversal favored over the Maritime Continent in the near term, this could induce a stronger MJO teleconnection in the extratropics downstream. Wintertime Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent MJO events typically lead to the development of anomalous mid-level ridging with warmer than normal temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. This is consistent with the latest week-2 guidance, however there is also both model and historical support for the associated anomalous mid-level ridging to retrograde over western North America with time, potentially allowing for the return of colder than normal temperatures over parts of the U.S. heading into February.

Euro seems to be showing more of a inverted trough into Mid Tn compared to the GFS,thats why you dont see such a strong LLJ into Mid Tn,its snow to the north and mixing towards the AL/Tn line here in Mid Tn.GFS

Euro shows a 35-45 LLJ,over Mid Tn,lower elevation wont stand a chance here basically up to the Ky line

Think thats where Flash lives

Yeah we did good with this system,should be around 8" so far,ill go out and measure it later today

Mountains play havoc with weather,its 12 here

I know,for some reason when i try to load the 2nd pic it says its to big

I tried,its never done this before

Thought the NAM was the big winner in our parts,EURO was the big loser

Server isnt allowing me to post all together for some reason

Short range models still show the secondary later on