jaxjagman

Could get some strong storms Thursday.Hard to figure out any MCS at this point,not much shear showing up like Nashville mentions.It dont look as warm in the long range what the Euro showed yesterday but still AN,have to watch the tropics upcoming next week like Jeff mentioned National Weather Service Nashville TN 610 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 .UPDATE... FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION... As a longwave trough slips east across the Mid Atlantic and New England regions, Middle TN is benefiting from the effects of an approaching high pressure system. Temperatures this afternoon sit comfortably in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with little to no cloud cover. Tonight will be the coolest night of the upcoming work week, feeling almost fall-like, with values dropping into the upper 40s and low 50s. We expect temps to rebound nicely Monday afternoon under a mostly sunny sky and a surface wind slowly becoming ESE. Mid-level ridging takes hold of the Tennessee Valley, keeping us dry through midday Wednesday. Models are not in the best agreement in regards to rain chances Wednesday afternoon, with the GFS ensembles a touch wetter across southern counties. A slow-approaching cold front will wash out over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Combined with an impulse of energy ejecting from AR and another across the Gulf Coast, height falls will contribute to developing rain Thursday morning and a few storms by Thursday afternoon/evening. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out if decent lapse rates and MLCAPE values are realized...though shear parameters remain very weak. In addition, mid and upper-level northwest flow will place our area along a favorable trajectory for upstream MCS development Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. Historically, storm complexes that develop hundreds of miles to the northwest and hold together long enough to make it to the Mid State are challenging to forecast. Current model solutions are not in lockstep, proving the complexity of the forecast. The strength and persistence of any mesoscale convective system is dependent on the environment it creates for itself and the environment it encounters downstream. The northwest flow/MCS pattern is common in Middle TN around summertime and bears watching later this week. Beyond Saturday, high pressure tries to build in across the Midwest and northern portions of the TN Valley. At the same time, there are indications of some type of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday into early next week. If high pressure builds in strong enough atop the Mid State, we can expect the tropical moisture to stay farther south. If only weak ridging develops, this could allow moisture and rain chances to approach the area from the south early next week. Temperatures over the next seven days will become quite toasty...as much as 7 to 10 degrees above normal for the start of June. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to be the warmest, though upper 80s to low 90s are possible all the way into next weekend.

EPS Control breaks down the Mid level ridge faster today and the storm is more progressive as it gets into Texas.But still aims towards East Texas.It's just some guidance at this point

A few members are showing a stronger system compared to yesterday

Yeah it seems to be dependant how the upper pattern evolves,certainly a chance

Need a banter thread because this is where it belongs.But look at the max QPFS into Texas, bottom right from where the system gets cut off. by the EPS.Would be insane rain

Who knows right now.The control basically cuts it off but would be hitting some shear,big rain maker in parts of Texas either way if it were to be anywhere right.

Looks like a warming period possibly upcoming with heights rising into the Northern Sea of Japan today then into the Kuril Islands tomorrow this should set up the stage for AN temps upcoming with heights rising into the plains and OV,lower to mid 90's look reasonable to me for some portions of the Valley,this is long range more into next weekend and first of the following week

Seems like the best bet right now for TG would be towards the Gulf Shores to Texas next weekend.Today the Euro shows Ridging into the Northern Sea of Japan and then by tomorrow more into the Kuril Islands,so chances are you'd have troughing in the NE and another system heading in from the NW with heights pumping up from the Plains into the Lakes.most of the models show something similar right now anyways.

Still some sizable spread but the GEFS is getting more tightly clustered for some possibly TG with the CAG upcoming

Here's the link to the up above map if you want to explore other climate and thresholds,if you don't already have it https://sercc.com/perspectivesmap?region=CONUS

Some of the stations have been rather impressive so far this year

CFS did rather well with the KW even back into the first of May.It was mentioned on the ENSO thread.

Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook Discussion Last Updated: 05.26.20 Valid: 05.27.20 - 06.09.20 While an active intraseasonal signal is still present in the CPC velocity potential based MJO index as well as the RMM-based MJO index, the overall pattern has become increasingly incoherent over the past several days. The amplitude of the enhanced convective envelope in particular has decreased as a Kelvin wave propagated across the Pacific, well ahead of the rest of the signal. Despite the regime of enhanced trade winds across much of the Pacific basin, the Kelvin wave appears to be convectively coupled with the North Pacific ITCZ, and a zonally narrow band of anomalous westerlies is present south of Mexico. Dynamical model MJO index forecasts track this Kelvin wave better than any other coherent feature, with most model forecasts showing the signal returning to the Indian Ocean towards the end of Week-2 or weakening. Based on these recent observations and forecasts, a canonical MJO evolution from the Maritime Continent to the Pacific is not anticipated, but the Kelvin wave is likely to influence the tropical convective pattern, particularly across the Western Hemisphere. Cyclone Amphan made landfall over West Bengal on 20 May at Category-2 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale, causing considerable damage across northeastern India and Bangladesh. This single tropical cyclone generated more than double the climatological accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) observed over the North Indian Ocean basin during the entire Spring season. On 21 May, Tropical Storm Mangga formed over the South Indian Ocean. Following extratropical transition and merging with a cold front, the remnants of TS Mangga generated widespread wind damage across Western Australia. During Week-1, as the Kelvin wave crosses the East Pacific and with upper-level high pressure already in place, conditions will become increasingly favorable for tropical cyclone formation over the East Pacific basin. The NHC is monitoring an area just south of Mexico and Guatemala, and forecasts a 70-percent chance of a tropical depression forming in this region over the next 5 days. More GEFS ensemble members depict tropical cyclone activity at days 5-8 than days 1-4; therefore, there is high confidence for tropical cyclogenesis in this region during the Week-1 period. As the Kelvin wave progresses eastward, the favorable area is anticipated to expand to include the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean. Numerous GEFS ensemble members depict the formation of a tropical cyclone in this region, with a clustering of tracks bringing the potential cyclone towards the Florida peninsula, the northern Gulf Coast, or as far east as central Cuba and the Bahamas. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding this forecast, and interests in the southeastern US, Mexico, and the western Caribbean should monitor the latest forecasts. A moderate potential for tropical cyclone formation is forecast for the Week-2 period extending from the East Pacific south of Mexico to the Bay of Campeche, southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and the far northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, dynamical models show a moderate potential for a disturbance west of India to become a tropical cyclone as it moves slowly northward across the Arabian Sea. Several GEFS ensemble members depict a second tropical cyclone formation near Oman; however, confidence is too low at this time to include a second Arabian Sea formation hazard on the outlook. Given the increasingly incoherent presentation of the intraseasonal signal, the forecasts for above- and below- normal precipitation are based on a consensus of bias-corrected CFS and ECMWF guidance, and potential tropical cyclone activity discussed above. Suppressed rainfall is favored across southeast Asia, the northwestern Pacific basin, and the equatorial central Atlantic during Week-1, while the central Maritime Continent and the East Pacific and western Atlantic basins are favored to be active. A disturbance near the US Southeast coastline may bring heavy rainfall to the Carolinas early in the period. A heat wave is ongoing across much of India, and is favored to continue early in the Week-1 period. Excessive heat is also likely across the US Southwest. During Week-2, suppressed rainfall is favored to continue over the northwestern Pacific region, while a moderate potential for enhanced rainfall shifts eastward across the Maritime Continent and the South Pacific, including American Samoa. An area of enhanced rainfall is possible over the western Indian Ocean north of Madagascar as the Kelvin wave returns to the Indian Ocean. While excessive heat is favored to diminish over India, a period of hot weather is possible across parts of Southeast Asia.

Seemingly there also looks to be a trough going through East Asia towards the end of the month,maybe something to watch as it could bring a CF toward the end of wk 1 of June in the east and also more trough in the NE,this could dampen out any TG expectations into the GOM

There were a couple ensemble members of the GEFS 18Z which could lead into some TG into the GOM into June,to early to tell right now tho

Depending on what the ENSO does right now ,seems possible we could be headed towards a +TNI next spring,which we haven't seen since 2017.Think we'll explore this to start another severe thread into winter,this one is getting long https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044008/pdf

That was a bad boy https://twitter.com/Fox4Weather/status/1264025552278769665/photo/1 https://twitter.com/ounwcm/status/1264566026227892224/photo/2

Thanks I saw his post this morning https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1264525706215796736/photo/1

Just food for thought,every single year the DMI dips below -0.8 there has always been some sort of a resurgent Nina the following winter.The most -ve was in Sept of 2016 where it hit -1.441.Some models show this potential especially the Euro

16/9/5

GFS would have some potential for some TG into the GOM with the GYRE,Euro not as promising

XFINITY GOT knocked out again thanks to a thunderstorm :(Thank goodness for Verizon2GO,its getting annoying tho

CFS has been consistent with a Kelvin Wave and the MJO with it slowing down into the NH with the CHI posted above.This KW could spawn up some TG along the western flank if it's to be right into the first week of June,i'd keep watching along the Yucatan still upcoming

KW moving across the IDL.There is some differences of how strong the KW will be.The MJO tho looks as if it will slow down as it get into the NH in a few days,should either way put a hit on subsurface east of the IDL