jaxjagman

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OHX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Your pic should be the Trousdale Co one

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Arkansas Southern Missouri Eastern Oklahoma Northwest Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 855 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms will continue to develop and intensify along and ahead of a cold front tonight, with a severe storm risk expected to continue through much of the overnight. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Fort Smith AR to 50 miles northeast of Dyersburg TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

Models are all over the place for next weekend.But even if does turn cold there seems to be no mechanics that would logically lock in any cold/Just a roller coaster ride upcoming seemingly..Best thing to get any decent snow right now would be from some ANA front like system but i hate watching snow over night and melts the next day

Some strong storms possible over night,especailly if the NAM is right.LLJ starts to kivk in 50-60kts.See what the afternoon models show us. Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Dec 05 2021 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER DARK FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex region to the Mid-South and lower Ohio River Valley. ...Lower OH into Mid/Lower MS Valleys... Morning water vapor loop shows an upper trough amplifying over the northern Plains. The associated surface cold front is now over NE/KS, and is forecast to sweep southeastward across much of the MS and lower OH valleys by tomorrow morning. The result will be scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Present indications are that the capping inversion will weaken this evening ahead of the front, with strong southwesterly low-level winds transporting dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s into the region. This will encourage shower and scattered thunderstorm development along the front after dark from southern IL into southern MO and northern AR. CAM solutions suggest that initial robust activity will be sparse, but sufficient CAPE and shear through the cloud-bearing layer could pose a risk of hail in the strongest cores over parts of MO/AR. Farther northeast, linear convective segments could result in gusty/damaging wind gusts. As the night progresses, coverage of deep convection along the front will likely increase. It is uncertain how many organized storm clusters will form along the front, but 40-50 knot southwesterly low-level winds and considerable shear will promote a risk of bowing structures capable of damaging winds and/or QLCS tornadoes. This threat will persist through the early morning as storms develop southeastward into parts of MS/TN/KY.

It should turn cold but before both the GFS and Euro is looking severe next weekend,could change this far out.MJO Looks good right now,even the CFS is showing a strong signal into Africa into the last week of Dec.Nothing wrong with that but you should proceed with caution on that one

Probably a volatile period coming up around next weekend.Big trough going through East Asia,typhoon and a Rex block around the Western Aleutians

That didn't work out very well,nothing severe but some heavy rains.Bought some new tires yesterday morn and was driving down Old Hickory,all the sudden several cars in front of me saw a brick mailbox explode from a car hitting it,ran over a few boulders,poor tires

Come on,lets do this.Don't mean it will happen this far out.Sure miss those strong autumn cold fronts

Euro seems to have alot of support bringing the MJO signal out of the COD into Dec.Cold signal but i think we should warm up some before then,lots of questions seemingly what the MJO does after that,be nice if it stayed there but that is wishcasting..lol

We don't know what thunder sounds like here anymore,you got some convection

Subsurface has leveled off the last several days.No more subsurface -6 but its still cold below,east of the IDL.Not much of any KW being shown the next several days so NINA should stay more weak right now,least that is how i see it

Could be but right now it don't really look that way.SOI still looks to be more NINA.MJO right now is being shown climbing out the COD into the WP into the first of Dec.,that should be more BN rather than AN. IF the CFS were to be believed this far out it will weaken some into Dec then strenghten again into the WP into week3 of Dec.,that shouldn't be a warm signal as long as it's out of a COD..JMO

Think we will see a warm up into Dec.,maybe not that bad right now,GEFS might be to slow.Euro and CfS both show the MJO starting to strenghten into the WP into Dec.,think the question will be where it goes after.Typical NINA seemingly,cold front end,sucky after that

Its cold signals right now

Guess we should finally punt the idea of the horrid 2011-12 winter,at least by the ENSO.Subsurface still has a large cold pool of -6..The seasonals coming in now shows the ENSO much colder than what they have been showing in recent months even into spring

To bad its not winter,East Asia is fixing to crank up for a bit

Probably have to wait and see,CFS could be wrong

Need the MJO to stay out of the Maritime,don't look like it will happen.Euro has been to strong with it last week into Africa,probably constructive interference from a KW.I wouldn't be surprised if the Euro comes out of the COD the next few days and shows it stronger into the IO,seems to be what the CFS has been showing

You gotta think something is going to happen during this time frame,recurving typhoon and a crashing SOI.But right now it could be anything,could even be severe

Possible "phoon" recurving off of the Japan coast in a few days which would fall in line basically with the timing possibly of those maps

The APCC ENSO Alert suggests “La Niña WATCH”. During September 2021, negative sea surface temperature anomalies were observed over the equatorial Pacific. The Niño3.4 index below -1℃ is expected to gradually increase to -0.24℃ during the forecast period. Based on the running 3-month mean Niño3.4 index, the latest APCC ENSO outlook suggests a 90% chance of La Niña conditions with weak intensity for November 2021 – January 2022, which gradually decreases. Meanwhile, ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to be gradually increasing and then dominant during February – April 2022. Highly probable above normal temperatures are predicted for much of the globe, especially for Eurasia, southern USA, and Argentina for November 2021 – April 2022. A tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted for eastern Russia, some regions of Canada, and the Arctic for November 2021 – April 2022.

Turned my heater on for a bit to get the chill out this morning

We'll see, this is looking more like a more modoki, west based NINA than anything,its even cooling into the subsurface closer to the IDL.After the next KW moving through this week the MJO signal looks mute right now until it strenghtens into the IO towards the end of the month.Least that is what i see,but this still looks stronger than 2011-2012..IMHO.Think if i were a betting man from TX/LA/AR into the OV could see all kind of extremes,cutter heaven.But that is JMHO.

Pretty much all agree a moderate NINA peaking around the new year