NorthShoreWx

Moderate snow here now. Looks pretty cool with the gusty winds, Not sure how long it lasts. Temp is 35

35.7

You're a little west of me. If that shower moving west holds together, you'll probably see snow too.

Finally getting some precip and it is light wet snow. I can't swear there isn't an ice pellet, but I don.t see any.

Watching an inch of snow fall in Scranton over 30 hours has been endlessly fascinating.

35 here now. Alternating between dry and very dry. If we get some precip in here, I think we are ready to snow along the north shore.

I had to read that twice. For a moment I thought this was the NE forum.

The Nam forecast soundings I looked at last night and this morning were all over this. Showed a warm nose this morning with the mid levels cooling to an isothermal sounding for a couple of hours resulting a a turn to snow right around when it did and mixing back before 3pm (right on schedule there's more sleet than snow here now). I was actually having my doubts about a flip to snow after 12 noon, but the model had it right. Back down to 32 here with a sleet/snow mix. Everything is covered, including the street.

2PM Smithtown Moderate Snow, 33F. Coating on the non paved surfaces as well as the colder paved surfaces.

Light snow continues in north Smithtown. We have a light coating on some of the colder surfaces (i.e., bare dirt in planting beds, etc).

Light snow in Smithtown as of 1:10PM. 34F Had light rain / sleet earlier

Shirley is farther north than Hempstead. The difference isn't great but neither are the snowfall differences across one line on that map. As for the "warm tongue" I usually attribute that to differences in how the models resolve land vs water. Even the high res models aren't perfect.

The primary low is dishing it out in the upper midwest. and ... DLH has "plow cams": https://www.weather.gov/dlh/weatherstory

My friend's poodle does that ... and it's fat!

Never lived there. 40.88N is as far south as I go.

Models have mostly been suggesting that but I'm not convinced. I don't have any basis of comparison regarding heat content of the Sound waters, but the surface water temps have cooled to the point where I don't think it's usually enough to be fatal. Right on the beaches maybe, but a quarter of a mile away up the hill or on top of the bluff might be no worse off than the rest of the island.

Dang. Sounds like 1914 all over again. I'm pretty much in step with the consensus for LI but not high confidence. I can see a lot that can go wrong with this one.

I wouldn't say "usually". It depends on the time of year. Very early in the season actually favors the city. Most of the cold season favors the north shore in marginal set-ups. But its situational. Some storms are going to shaft us. March 1914 and February 2010 come to mind as noteworthy exceptions to the late in the season pattern. Everyone here remembers the March storm, right?

It's been a consistent message across much of the modeling that however much falls, this is depicted locally as a north shore jackpot. The LI Sound water temps are in the 40s which isn't that big a deal. Early season snows with water temps near 60 kill the north shore (think Oct 2011, and Nov 2012).

Precipitation ended here in the past half hour after about 2.5 hours of light non-accumulating snow. Cloudy and 33 at 3:30PM.

That probably had a lot to do with it. We had a lot of white rain before it started sticking. Also I think points farther west did better. I think NE Nassau had up to 8 or 9 inches. The Sound helps for most of the winter, but being within a couple of miles of the Sound also gives us a longer growing season kind of like parts of CNY near Lake Ontario (but not as pronounced). We had nothing but a few wet flakes here in October 2011. A couple of miles south there was snow on the ground. An interesting quirk is radiational cooling at night. We are often one of the cold spots on the island a day after Westhampton records some crazy low. Once the breeze begins to shift as high pressure starts to pass to the east, we are effectively far from the water and decouple well while the South shore maintains an onshore breeze. During the "best" radiation nights we sometimes keep a light northerly breeze going all night. Even so, we can be several degrees colder than a mile north of here on those nights.

25 here. The Sound is still very warm.

7 years ago this morning in Smithtown. We got about 3.5" in the post-Sandy noreaster.

First snow of the season here atm. Just a few pathetic flakes making it to the ground, but the first is the first.