NorthShoreWx

Wicked! Looks like tornado video.

Eh, we might still have a few tricks up our sleeves. It's hard to find this thread. There about 350 pinned threads above it. Glad some in the sub-forum aren't sitting on the ledge.

While suffocating snows fall over the gulf stream

I think this winter has been kind of interesting. I'd prefer [lots] more snow, but it hasn't been boring.

The visibility was worse on the Taconic but fortunately no trucks and very few cars that night. It sucks to be the guys who slow down when they should only to have some imbecile plow them from behind. If you know that sudden squall is coming, get off the road and wait it out. Idiots are everywhere. Someone made a comment about the Snow Squall Warning being useless because by the time you hear it it's too late, but I bet they display it on the overhead roadway electronic signs. People with a brain can take action while the majority speeds up.

As long as you are not actually driving on the Taconic when the squall hits. Been there done that and still remember it after 25 years. Slow down until the point where you are about stopped and pray whoever is hidden in the curtain of snow behind you does the same thing. Literally went from clear everything to snow covered roads and zero viz in less than 30 seconds. That time was at night. The snow squall warnings are most important for people traveling on major highways, such as interstates, but on rural roads as well. I'd avoid speeding west on I-80 through that squall. If you are rolling from light to light in town the reduced visibility should be mostly a curiosity. Quickly icing roads might be problematic though, especially where there are more hills or more knuckleheads or both.

34 with big fat wet snowflakes falling. I can hardly contain my giddiness.

42 and raining. The band of rain about 25 miles to my west appears to be getting quite heavy, almost a squall line look to it. Could be related to the modeled subsidence behind it as Walt pointed out.

40 here as of 12:30.

It was a good run for the coast. 2 months of 10"+ @ KMGJ is a nice winter. 2011, 2014, and 2015 were good snow cover winters here. I'll run those stats when I get a chance. This winter, we wait for the MJO to find it's MoJO

This doesn't apply to inland, but the morning flurries on LI implied by the NAM would basically be snizzle / junk snow on the low level southeast flow off the ocean. If correct, the boundary won't be dry enough for much evaporative cooling,

Looks like the best 30 seconds of the winter.

The high here today was 38 at midnight. The maximum temperature during the daylight hours was 29. It is currently 26 (6:30PM)

Those calculations are built into the models, but the data in, starting point and model resolution introduce sources of error. Here is what today's 18z 3k NAM forecast sounding looks like for my area at 4PM tomorrow. Freezing level is at about 930mb and everything above that is cold enough. Below 930mb the temp rises from 0C to 3C with most of that rise done by 950, hence plenty of time for the snow to melt on the way down. The problem is with the S to SE boundary layer winds. in subsequent hours the model shows the temperature warming a little more at the surface while 850 stays below freezing on more of a southwest wind. This run shows it getting cold enough to snow here after 10PM, but not much precip around at that time.

No such luck. From 12/26/2010 - 1/27/2011 we had 51.4" (33 days). We only had 12" in the 12/26 blizzard. 2010-2011 Snow cover (2N Smithtown): 1" or more from 12/27 - 2/28. At least a trace from 12/27 - 3/6. 20"+ from 1/26 - 2/3. 10"+ from 1/12 - 2/17. Max depth 27" early on 1/27 (not recorded...was 25" at 9AM obs time). 1/27/11:

An average 850mb - 1000mb thickness of about 135 decameters (1350 meters) is cold enough on average to snow, but averages don't matter. If its very cold at 850 and very warm below 950, it's gonna rain. At 131dm thickness, it's a colder layer (on average), as SG alluded to. Basically, warm air takes up more space, so the colder it is the less the thickness of the layer.

Mostly 1 - 3" on LI on 12/10/14 (and also in Bronx and Westchester), but what happened on 3/31/2014? That was the day we had 5" with 0" forecast. Also there were a couple of good blinding mid-day snow squalls on February 26 and again on February 27, 2014. This one blew through shortly after noon on the 2/26/14:

Sounds like a typical autumn day on the Tug.

They basically measured maximum snow depth for a three day storm (in March). Just supposition on my part, but who knows if they even measured when the snow depth was at it's max. 30"+ wouldn't surprise me but we'll never know.

None of us know the future, but I know the past and this winter is already not as bad as those ones were, even if the February trends turn out to be false leads.

Bold call. Leaves zero margin for error, especially since we've already had more cold weather (fleeting or not) than those winters. Basically we have to bust out into spring in the next day or two and stay there (which would be like the mentioned winters).

January 26, 2011 (before the big snowfall). The first 6 weeks of the 2010-11 winter were great.

He grew up in Syosset.

High temperature here today was 13 ... twice. It was 13 at midnight and then again this afternoon. The low this morning was 6. Our snowdepth has increased to 0.

I recall January 21 from that winter. For some reason I have no memory of the rest of it.