michsnowfreak

the gfs has seemed to have the poorest performance lately

Snow began to fall around 10:45 p.m. and quickly accumulated. What a Christmas treat and yet another example of how models cannot be trusted until the last minute. For as frustrating as the season has seemed so far, the November 30th snowstorm started as I was out cutting down a christmas tree, I had an outdoor christmas event the night of December 16th during that snowfall, and now a Christmas Eve night snowfall has begun which may surprise many locally by tmrw.

DTX upped forecast to snow (not snow likely) and up to 1" tonight and 1" tmrw.

I meant locking in in terms of what areas get hit and what areas don't. if a storms missing us we don't pay as close attention, but for those getting hit by the storm location matters.

nothing on long range models ever locks in anywhere lol

GHD 1 in 2011 DTW got 10.1" which everyone complained about because it underperformed. We had 6" on the ground before the storm. Then on the 5th they called for sunny skies and the area got 4-6". Then, on Feb 20, they called for 1-3" changing to ice instead we got 10.2" of snow. Yet some complained for years bc GHD1 underperformed. Thats how spoiled we were in the 2007-2015 era lol. 2009-10 DTW had 43.7", thanks mostly to Feb. It was not a bad winter here, I can remember you guys being screwed. 2011-12 sucked with 26.0" but it was the only bad apple in a fantastic 8 year stretch. It was nowhere near the alltime futility either (12.9" in 1936-37).

in Feb 2011 we had two 10" storms and a 5" storm. in 2010 we had a 9" storm and I think a 5" storm. no doubt Feb has had the got hand! 2018 also had a 9" storm and 14" snowpack. 2017 the Feb torch disparity is interesting. Did Toronto have any of that snow Feb 1st? because Detroit had a 4" clipper Jan 31.

you know me, have to add pics. See corresponding # to pic

I suppose the longer they go without snow doesn't hurt to watch, but considering they can get snow for 4 more months, it'll be tough to do. The all time futility for Chicago is 9.8" in 1920-21.

Interesting. The extended cfs maps which are equivalent to giving a 3 year old a crayon, are known for their constant changing from run to run (hell you can see record warmth and record cold for a certain timeframe from run to run)...but I've noticed some real cold showing up towards late January and early February. This is the dead of winter so anomalous cold will be very wintry.

I don't fully understand the NAO because its a lot more gray area than the east coast. At least for big storms. Some of our big storms are +NAO, some -NAO. but it would be nice to get into a classic -NAO clipper pattern

if you are talking about seasonal futility for Chicago...the 3rd day of astronomical winter is wayyyyyyy too early to think of that. As in, 2+ months too early. If you are simply talking "least snow thru this date" thats another story.

MSP frequently was missed during some of the bigger winters of the lower Lakes last decade. it all ebbs and flows. MSP got 44" in 2007-08.

Good point. Weather weenies are often of the "what have you done for me lately" mindset.

so many runs to go, and likely so many solutions

Southern rural SW Minnesota is legit probably a life threatening whiteout

What a way to end a snowless Christmas season in MSP. I'm jealous, but remember blizzard is more about wind/visibility/conditions than actual snowfall. Nice snow regardless.

The voice of reason!

GHD1 underperformed here. We still got 10" with about 14" on the ground once the storm passed, but earlier projections were much higher. In fact, coming off of a lot of snowy winters, the way spoiled local weenies responded to the bust you'd have thought we got nothing lol. Id kill to go back to those days, busts and all. It was simply snowy heaven for almost a decade, with one very rotten apple in the middle (11-12).

Dear Santa,I want today's 12z rgem for Christmas!

Once the Christmas season has passed I would love to do a lake effect snow chase. I plan to take lots of walks in the snow throughout winter as well as a trip north in Feb. But chasing some Lake effect would really be fun and something I've never done. Between working from home and not being able to do much with this damn pandemic, great year to do it.

The decade was filled with blockbuster Febs. Detroit is slightly above avg this season to date at 9.2". But literally each of the 3 main snowfalls (Nov 22, Nov 30/Dec 1, Dec 16/17), esp the first two, jackpotted the far southeast corner of the state. An observer in Monroe (between Detroit and Toledo) is at 11.1". This is misleading for anyone outside the immediate metro as Flint and Saginaw have had very low snowfall (2-3" total). Im at 9.3" and have only had 7 days with 1"+ snow on the ground. Should this theme keep up the winter is definitely a dumpster fire from a sustainable perspective but as I always said, temps mean little wrt actual snowfall. It will be funny if Chicago pulls an above avg season by April lol.

very snowy winter...id allow a Jan tornado lol

only 4-5 months to go

I remember that too! I remember they were talking about it all week.