michsnowfreak

We are alike. Winter is my favorite. I dont want it all year but i definitely hate spring. I could TOTALLY do winter winter summer fall

I would not call anything consensus right now. There was more of a consensus several days ago, I get a kick out of how the models can be consistent with each other far out, then as you get closer to the event they go haywire and in different directions. 6ZGFS as already corrected North from 00z as well as GEFS. Todays runs should be...interesting.

Wow

Is an op run any better than its ensembles? Or is it the lucky one that gets the spot light? In other words...could any one of the 51 euro emsembles be considered the same as the op? Or any of the 20 gefs?

Glancing at gefs looks like if anything it ticked north.

Lots of great eps members!

Agree. Last weekend was no more of a slam dunk than this or any other storm. No storm is a slam dunk. But the signal for a widespread event is very strong.

Weaker though in MI. Would be crap if it verified but the 6z ensembles are.even better than 00z. Details will literally not be ironed out until Friday at the earliest, but hopefully within the next couple days we can get an idea of the general northern and Southern extent of things.

We saw several 1-1.5" events in November but since then just a few dustings. Im sure you went over a half inch in Nov a few times vut i get what youre saying. Standards far lower than usual this winter!

Most euro ensembles were better for the northern edge than the op euro. Looks like the same with the 18z gefs now that gfs suppressed. Looks like a lot of waffling in the coming days. Im wondering what our northern and southern boundary possibilities are with this one.

Like all the models, the euro will continue to waffle. I did not like how suppressed it was, we get grazed by probably 1-2 inches of snow. Outside of that the 12Z trends were not bad at all, in fact were sniffing rain with the Canadian. I wonder what the northern and Southern extent of the possibilities are with this one?

I've countless times seen storms cut through a snowpack here so not sure how much effect snow pack down to the South will have, especially since the northern and Southern edges of it will probably have mostly eroded by then and there is no snowpack to the North of that swath. Regardless a fun storm looks to be shaping up. We are undoubtedly in for a week of models being all over the place however it's pretty unanimous that a storm will be hitting so I can't see it disappearing. To the experts out there, are there any threats of this thing being shredded apart, or is it pretty much a give that a good storm will be taking shape?

You're thinking of 1994, not 95.

Had to fix your original post lol. Seriously though, it's hard to ignore such a strong and persistent storm signal, even though it is still 5 to 6 days out. And there is a lot of cold behind the storm, so all be interesting to see what ends up happening. As long as I have snow on the ground by Saturday evening I will be fine.

While I doubt these extreme numbers come to fruition, it's not like it's just one rogue run. The FV3 has been hellbent on outrageous cold in the long range. Lol if that Matt panned out it would probably be clear and -30ﾟin Columbus and we would be getting Lake effect pixie dust showers here with temperatures around -8ﾟ

I agree. Is there any snow on the ground in Toronto? Temperatures here were in the upper single digits and lower teens during the February 13th 2007 storm.

I don't really care when it comes to thunderstorms lol. Snow I do though. Like I said no one's going to get every storm, I think it's just the start to this Winter that has anyone who did not get the storm on edge. Remember, Southern New England was supposed to have their most historic winter on record and they have barely seen a snowflake.

Me too. It really stung to miss this event, even though I expected to miss it all along. In no way am I implying that every event must hit here lol, I think it's because we were stuck in such a mild benign weather pattern since the beginning of December, it seemed unfair that areas to the South would score as soon as the pattern turned colder while here in Southern Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc we are high dry and bare ground. Those areas were definitely more due than us from recent years, but the start to this Winter after a nice November has been brutal. That said I am really loving the storm signals for next weekend. The consistency on the models has been something. I can't recall if models still lose things on day 5 and then bring them back, guess we will find out later today and tomorrow lol but to be honest I'm more worried about missing to the South than having too much warm air pumped up with this one. Some of the scenarios with this one would be quite a Winter storm. Huge temperature drop during the storm.

No, you were spot on. You measure and clear every 6 hours. Youre welcome to measure every 30 minutes, 40 minutes, hour, whatever you want to check on rates, you just don't clear it. If you clear less than every 6 hours you will be inflating your total and if you clear more than 6 hours you will be lowballing it. Of course this is if it is snowing, obviously as soon as a snowfall stops is the best time to measure it. In all of these rules apply when there's not a lot of wind, obviously when it's a windy storm snowboards maybe useless and you will need to just take a ton of measurements to get an average. The storm really hurt lol, I think mainly because of the start we've had to this Winter. Most of the areas that got hit with this storm are areas that were definitely due based on recent years. The SE MI snowmagnet could not pull in a single flake with this one. Snow literally hit a wall, as expected.

Luckily its a week out. Plenty of good eps hits.

Models have and will continue to be all over the place with this one. Prepare for many changes. The important thing is the signal for a storm is there.

It does. Ensemble agreement is very strong for a storm of some sort.

Seeing as though this storm is the 1st snow of consequence since November outside of the far North, I will give ma nature a pass lol. Especially since the extended is looking active. But if we end up dodging subsequent events, I will be lighting up this thread a little more in a few weeks. We have seen plenty of the usual, flakes in the air, but enough is enough. The cold has returned, the snow better be close behind!

We can get clippers. Extended looks pretty active actually.

Interesting. There has been a signal on gefs for days centered on that weekend as well.