michsnowfreak

We had the largest November snowstorm and largest January rainstorm on record last winter lol. The rest of December does not look ideal however it looks much better than it did a few days ago. Sticking with my guns, after New Year the fun begins

I would not call it a good pattern necessarily but it sure as heck does not look as bad as it looked a few days ago. So who knows

That was actually a fun storm in a frustrating met Winter. go to bed at midnight with bare ground and wake up at 6am with 7" of snow.

First week of December actually averaged -0.1° at DTW. Season snowfall of 6.0" is +2.9" to date.

I love discussing past winters, good and bad lol. but yeah winters over posts in early December are laughable.

Feb 2015 was 2nd coldest for Detroit but coldest since 1875. Winter of 2013-14 was severest on record for cold+snow in addition to being the snowiest. December 2015 did manage to nudge December of 1881 out of the top spot for warmest, however February of 1882 still ranks as by far the warmest February on record. In fact, the 2nd warmest February is 3ﾟ colder! January 1882 was much colder than December or February, but was still a good 5ﾟ above normal. Seasonal snowfall in 1881-82 was only 13.2", second least snowy Winter on record period from roughly December 31st to January 6th we had a period of below freezing temperatures and a few inches of snow on the ground. That was literally the only Winter of that entire season. The few other snowfalls that occurred did not last more than one day. 1877-78 and 1879-80 were also extraordinarily warm winters, but by far 1881-82 was the inferno here. For the far upper Midwest, 1877-78 was the famous "year without a winter". If we had an 8 year stretch like this today, every wx weenie would be on medication. Every single one of these winters was very extreme 1 way or the other locally. 1874-75: record cold 1875-76: very warm 1876-77: very cold 1877-78: very warm 1878-79: bitterly cold 1879-80: warm 1880-81: historically severe (unmatched til 2013-14) 1881-82: historically warm and snowless A bit down the road there was another historically warm and snowless Winter in 1889-90.

Very interesting. 1933-34 was one of the coldest winters that decade. 1931-32 was a very warm Winter here. Although the frequency of mild winters has increased in recent times, Detroit's top 3 warmest winters (1881-82, 1931-32, 1889-90) stand alone and we have never come close to them in our lifetime. I looked Detroit Free Press to see if the news papers were marvelling at the weather. In those ancient days of the 1880s newspapers certainly had a different (but fascinating) style, so they did not discuss the weather in as much detail as we do now. However they did make numerous references to it, noting boating on the river as if it was summer, no ice being made for summer use, green grass and no snow, budding peach limbs mid winter. But by 1931-32, newspapers had evolved and weather was always a fun topic to discuss. The articles were countless about the insane warm weather, noting things like roses, trees, and dandelions budding and blooming in December and January and there was even a front page story about a butterfly being seen flying around Detroit in early January. The 1st snow to actually cover the grass was not seen until February 4th. The snowiest month was March, the winters worst storm was March 22nd, and as you might guess it was a very cold delayed Spring

Thanks. I know it will change several times anyway, but that's actually how I'd envisioned winter. Riding the gradient in a stormy winter can give us lots of snow (aka 2007-08) but be frustrating for pack lovers. Already had a taste of that this season (6.2" on season, less than 4 full days of full cover).

is southern Michigan on the good side of the gradient lol?

oops yeah, they are called Early American Winters. There were some very harsh winters back then, but also some very mild, "open" winters.

I have a book about upper Michigan weather but also David Ludlum's History of North American winters. fascinating reads.

Not sure, but that was an extremely warm winter. I was looking at Detroit data for winters 1931-32 and 1881-82, those winters were so mild it was crazy. What brings up 1931-32?

Nothing like being in love with a fantasy

To each their own. I hate spring so I've enjoyed the delayed springs of late, more snow and less allergies. you can write off December as a good winter month, but not necessarily write off snow chances. the snowstorm of Nov 30-Dec 1 didn't show up more than a handful of days out as I recall.

No thanks. First of all who said winter is going to blow? its early December lol. Secondly, I can understand wanting an early spring for a change, but a Morch would be agricultural disaster.

I was talking starting in January. models are unanimous in a wet look. hopefully we can get some more snow before Christmas though

True points...also models are overwhelming with a wet look into this region starting in January. So take it all fwiw

Crazy. But that's just how people like to jump the gun. Where in a mile stretch of winters now, but look what happened from 2008 to 2015...lots of cold and heavy snowfall

Yes it was Bill. And it basically had to do with promoting global warming

Nice to hear from you. DTX went for a warmer than average December with average temperatures in January in February. They went above avg precip and average to above average snowfall for the Winter. That's ridiculous of cpc to do that. many years ago, a now retired met told me something similar about how they basically bullied the nws into touting what they wanted. As warm as it was last season finished a hair above avg snow at DTW. I know some don't like "stat padding" snows, but I think they are actually extra impressive when you can see white on Halloween or Mothers Day. We have a lllllong way to go in 20-21.

I can't say that I disagree with your assertion that January may be the best Winter month (at least I think that's what you are implying lol). It would also be interesting if we had an early spring, that is certainly something we are overdue for after several years of unusually late freezing and snowfalls. And while you may be right, I just can not go with below average snowfall in the lower Great Lakes in early December. I can always readjust that mindset in mid January or so depending where we are and where we look like we are headed, but with the overwhelming look of a wetter than average Jan-Apr, I just cannot go below average yet, at least outside the lake belts. Just because I am saying I think snowfall will be averaging above normal does not mean it will be a good winter for ice or snowpack. Detroit, Cleveland, and Toronto are above average to date.

Yeah, it was NAO. Since 2008... 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 6 of the past 12 winters were colder than average. If we look at DJFM you can add 2018-19

just curious, are eps to 360hr on any free site?

gray and cold today with a few flurries. otherwise zzz

lol I'm sure it's plenty. everything modeled never comes to fruition. Winter is coming