michsnowfreak

Took a walk in the park today after doing some errands. The beauty of winter as a tundra like dangerous arctic airmass looms.

I could jackpot every storm and still be jealous of the one that I miss, just human nature for a snow weenie. So definitely jealous of toronto, Wisconsin, and cyclones snow depth lol. But I must say, I can't begrudge you guys that got slammed. Reading these threads I did not realize how many of you have not had double digit snow falls for quite a few years. Weve had 5 double digits snowstorms since 2014, so I can't complain that my big one this year has been just 6.1".

That is absolutely amazing. It really is true that the Midwest has some of the most extreme seasons probably in the world. Obviously this is a more extreme example, but even in the most non extreme year (for example say we had a mild Winter and a cool summer), when you actually look at the extremes of the hottest part of the year and the coldest part of the year, it's something that most places do not see.

Wow I'm jealous. I'm guessing even with settling you have a good 14" on the ground or so. But that is much deserved in Toronto. Totally different character of snow there than here. Due to the warming temp spike the snowpack is very heavy. It's a Winter wonderland for sure, but none of the drifting or powder look that is just to our North.

Lol thanks. You know what's funny is when I took my trees out of the house a few weeks ago (yes I get 2 real trees) I put them by the curb along with my Garland roping. I was going to put the wreath but it was still so fresh and I thought, well that can be a good Winter wreath with the snowy pinecones, not just Christmas lol.

As expected, got less here on the southern fringe. Got 3.2", but it was a pretty packed snow. Temp skyrocketted from the low teens at snows beginning to 34-35F where it stayed for 5 hours before the fall commenced. Snow depth was at 6" but has now compacted to about a heavy 5" and is freezing up. Minimal drifting. With this being the 3rd plowable snow in the last 10 days here (6.1", 3.8", 3.2") there are plenty of nice snowbanks and piles everywhere so finally has the look of deep winter. Very icy out though. My 3.2" puts me at 14.3" for Jan and 20.7" on the season. At DTW the 3.9" puts them at 14.0" for Jan and 21.2" on the season.

The heavy band of snow that went through metro Detroit with easily 2" an hour rates. Looks great out there.

For me locally, I am expecting a near match today of Saturday nights 3.8". The difference? Saturday was literally not predicted until A few hours before it began to snow, and even then it was only forecast at 1-2". Today has been talked about for a solid week and how much potential it holds, and the end result should be similar snowfall totals lol. Mother nature always has the last say. If I get less than 3" today I will be mad, more than 4" will be a bonus, just my gut.

Still lots of discrepancy in the northern and Southern edges of this thing. Glad we got a good surprise snow last night because I expect to be on the lower end tomorrow, still should see a good thump though.

Wow what a surprise last night was! Ended up with 3.8" of fluffy snow here and 3.6" at DTW. A stripe of 3-4" on the I94 corridor, but some unofficial reports of 5-6" on the Wayne/Monroe county border. With the banding and fluffiness of the snow, I believe it. DTX had us at just a 40% chance of snow until a few hours before the snow started, when they bumped up to 80% chance of snow with 1-2" forecast.

Nice. Looks like a 5 hour Period of snow here on the short term models. Will certainly cover up the bare spots and put a fresh glisten on the frozen patches of snow.

So are the ratios good? DTX changed the forecast from 40% chance of snow to snow with 1 to 2" but I noticed the HHHR is printing out at least a tenth of an inch of liquid.

FYP lol. Boy it took only a few good weeks to get the Chicago crowd cocky . My brother moved back in Fall (he doesnt like snow) and since he moved to Chicago 5 years prior, we almost always had more snow than him. He joked that maybe he will bring his luck of less snow home with him. Sure enough, to date ORD is at 24.5" and DTW 13.7". In the previous 8 winters, Detroit beat Chicago 7 of 8 times, and the only time they didnt was by 3". I mean, winter is only half over but if it does happen this year and again next year, Im telling him he must move back

Looking like we see some light snow accumulation tonight here as well. This kind of came out of nowhere. Dtx still just has 40% chance of snow.

The snowcover argument is as annoying as the Sun angle argument. They are factors that are always weighed far too heavily by many.

I always get a kick out of how storm threads are a roller coaster based on the models. 1st everyone was saying this was going to go South South South because of previous clipper tracks, cold, etc, and now its North, has Wisconsin special written all over it, etc.. If the models were people they would get a kick out of how they play with our minds. I personally would like a little nudge South on the models. Doing OK right now, but GFS is a little too far North for my liking.

Just 0.1" of snow last night with the frontal passage and Lake effect while here and DTW. Some heavier bands to my North. What little snow is left after the rain and warmth of Wednesday is now frozen solid.

DTX said this about track, though not sure if it will apply out your way... The wide moisture swath across southern Lower Michigan appears to be less dependent on the precise track of the surface low at this stage in the forecast which suggests increasing potential for substantial/headline worthy snow accumulation Monday through Monday night.

A lot of people were thinking this was going South but all the last models have been wagons North. Still looks good here but I too would not mind a nudge South. 6z GEFS is perfect.

I'm surprised some are anxious to see the 84 hour nam. That's about as accurate as the 180 hour gfs lol

I'm looking forward to this system. Barring a complete miss I will be happy. There is some frozen snow outside but those bare spots thanks to yesterday have to go. It's easy to be jealous of the deeper snow in eastern IA and western IL, but we cant jackpot every Winter. As long as a fresh looking winter wonderland returns for the record cold blast.

When do we see the 1st post where within minutes of each other one poster "insert model name looks north" while another 1 says of that same model "insert model name looks South"

When is this energy sampled?

Id say -4 here. Depth was 5" prestorm. Got 0.81" rain (most of it freezing rain) then warming temps. Snow held on well til later in the day. Isnt that always the case? The last hours before the cold comes back are the worst. Calling current depth 1" on avg but this includes plenty of bare spots and of course drifts. Monday could be good so ill stay out of the complaint thread....for now.

Its basically mid winter. This is not that late at all. Decent chance those areas dont have snowpack by the time spring gets here. Just have to hope to lose a little at a time.