michsnowfreak

Michigan is great and Grand Rapids is awesome. So wrong that theres no snow on the ground at this time. The last 2 years had lots on the ground at this very time period

I understand what you are saying and they will get snow up North. I think you kind of misunderstand my posting though also. It's a terrible look right now I just never get the comparisons to the warmest or most snowless Winter people can remember every time there's a bad pattern in place for a few weeks. My reference as to how things are looking up is referring to the posts that many mets have been posting to in other suborums, and hinted at in this forum as well by Ricky and OHweather. Cold air seems to be on the way for January. Hell things could go sour with suppression, I just don't think a winter long torch is something we need to be worried about.

The situation up North is even more dire than down here. Like I said in my above post there's no doubt that Winter is coming, the problem is with the North country having a snowless December that is a big Dent in the building of Winter snowpack. It can certainly be overcome but this is not the month that they want to lose up there.

Winter not arriving until January in that region is pretty common so they probably figure what do they have to lose in December. In our region Winter lasts a lot longer, so it's early start followed by a December absence is very irritating. I have absolute 100% confidence that Winter is coming, that's not the issue. it's always silly to hear any kind of Winter cancel talk (which luckily in this forum we hear minimal, unlike some other forums). The problem is Winter is a long season here so even if it's a great January, February and March, we lost a month. I don't buy this one storm or 1 stretch makes a season stuff that some on the East Coast do. I like a Winter for how it behaves the Winter as a whole.

Obviously only time will tell what happens, But all of the usual panic seems to be very here and now based and it a does appear that things will look up in January and into February.

This SSWE cold that everyone seems to be expecting to hit starting around mid January is still a month away. It would be wonderful if we can spend the next several weeks in an active though not cold pattern getting some snows that spread the wealth throughout the sub forum.

what about Dec 2017? It was the 5th snowiest December on record at Detroit. And even 2016 was snowy. I was fearing a crummy December because of how snowy the last 2 where, although I wasn't feeling it to be this bad lol

For here last year we had a nice mid December snowpack that melted quickly a few days before christmas and then we had the perfect Currier and Ives Christmas Eve snowstorm. So despite the few day reprieve, I consider that a great December. In 2016 we also had a nice snowpack that was constant from early to mid December through christmas, tho christmas was a very murky day with melting snow (albeit still a full cover). 2013 had a nice snowpack 2 weeks before Christmas then we went down to patchy cover right around Christmas which only lasted a few days and would ironically be the only patch snow covered days until late March 2010 had solid snowcover and cold for 2 weeks before Christmas and into Christmas itself but it was actually quite boring after the storm on December 12.

I'm sure each storm will have an area of snow it's all going to depend on track. It is not a torch pattern where only the far North and West can get Snow

I would be surprised also. I mean for starters 2011 had a top 20 warmest November and this year had a top 20 coldest November lol. As a whole snow lovers in much of this region have been very spoiled this century with Winter weather. Of course there have been down times but when you look at the big picture, over 140 years of weather records, there are a lot of winters that are not big snow or cold makers. Every year is not going to finish snowier than average or average would not be average. But this should not mean that every time we go into a mild or snowless stretch people should fear the worst of the worst.

Warm periods are common in most winters, but its especially bad when they occur during what I consider the most delicate time of year for wx weenies. This is the time every year where people have doubts about Winter regardless of how good or bad the pattern is at the time. Absolutely nothing is pointing to 2011-12 with what has happened so far or what likely lurks in the future. As for the CFS? I don't even know what to call it because Winter temperatures have barely budged here and even if you account for a very slight warming there's no excuse for its constant torching. That's why I am definitely intrested in the colder look at has for both January and February.

It's one thing to wish for a warm March, especially with our delayed Springs lately. I certainly wont, but understand those who do. but why wish for agricultural disaster?

Not. even. Close.

No I am not getting that feeling, however I am getting a strong feeling that December will be the least wintry month of that NDJFM period. It hasnt even been a torch, it just has not wanted to snow like it did last month, and signs going forward are certainly better for Jan and Feb.

I am not too familiar with stratospheric warming, stratospheric assault on the polar vortex, etc, but I gather that this is good news (with a lag effect) for wintry weather down the road. So I am hoping this means a nice wintry January and February. By the dead of winter, even in mild or unfavorable patterns we can get snowstorms, but im talking deep winter. Even the torch-biased CFS is going colder than avg by mid January. In the meantime, with an active pattern returning in late December, I am sure some of us will be able to get snow out it regardless of the lack of true cold.

Not trying to look too far ahead but I'm a bit intrigued by the colder than average temperatures shown on the CFS weeklies for weeks 5 and 6. That model is so prone to auto torching I'm wondering if we really hit some deep Winter by mid January. Obviously snow chances will come well before that.

Agree. I rarely watch the news so im not familiar with her but apparently she was a well liked tv met in the area

Sensible weather wise 2018-19 has absolutely mirrored 2014-15. Obviously it's still extremely early, technically it's not even officially Winter, but 2014-15 started with a cold and somewhat snowy November (this November was snowier) then December was mild, certainly not a torch, but for whatever reason it just would not snow like it normally does in the lakes. January turned cold with frequent snows (although nothing big), then February began with a huge snowstorm followed by record cold.

Oh absolutely the next 7 to 10 days will be warmer than normal. No argument from me on that, as a matter of fact I've been bracing for it for a while as the warm signal has been there. When looking at the CFS it's hard to tell though because it defaults to torching until it gets very close. It forecast a top 20 warmest November on record and instead we had a top 20 coldest November on record. I do believe December will end up warmer than normal however we should already be at a positive departure according to the CFS. I certainly have my doubts about a warm Winter as a whole. And for the record I am far enough North that a mild Winter does not scare away my snow chances (just leads to less snowpack than I like)

For some reason when I went back in the thread to try and find your analysis of the November run of the jamstec, I was unable to find it. Very wise to use normals of 1951-2010 instead of 1895-2010 or 1981-2010. This way you maximize the cold of the 1960s and 1970s into all data sets, wouldn't want to skew anything. The CFS has been masterful lately. As a matter of fact I think it was only about 10 to 15ﾟ too warm in November. I just hope Palm trees don't start to sprout here in Michigan with this super hot Winter. Nothing says "super hot" like 0.5° Celsius above normal. I can't believe some people in this thread are implying that you're grasping for any straw that will make the North and East warm.

I have heard several people cite that Winter. And so far it certainly is following that trend of a very cold November followed by a Winter-free December and then a harsh rest of Winter. December was absolutely the red headed stepchild of an otherwise harsh Winter in 14-15

I would agreed. I generally think of Ohio as the North and Kentucky as the South

The last 2 decembers we were rolling in snow. What a boring slap in the face after a snowy November. Hopefully this ends quickly around Christmas.

A depressing comparison

It probably is. I'm not familiar enough with Indys climo to confirm, but it would make sense as we have had that here in Detroit. Snowstorm frequency is much increased since 2000 over the long term average.