michsnowfreak

Nah, it just depends on the system. the east side has actually done better than northwest the last several snowfalls. it's clear with this one that the farther east you are the better.

Looks like a nice snowy start to December in eastern MI but it can't go much further east or it won't be lol.

Welcome aboard!

You can't call 11-12 in November lol. And the only time you will see Noaa's maps in blue is when an absolutely imminent cold snap is coming. This time in 2005 or 2016 it was a nice snowy outlook headed into the holidays. Meanwhile after new years...

I often wonder if it would be more fun or less fun to be a weather weenie in the days before we had access to all the weather models? I mean, an extended model shows a massive storm and you only get 7" of snow your "disappointed" . A model shows nothing, maybe a disturbance to your south, and you get 3" of unexpected snow, you're "excited".

I notice often unrealistic warm temperatures in those little urban center circles on forecast temp maps, especially GFS. I think they probably put something in their computer system to account for UHI, but it clearly overdoes things

it was 1966

computer guidance is near unanimous with showing above avg precip this winter following that general track.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!! It may not seem like it in 2020, but many of us have a lot to be thankful for. Here's to a snowy winter!

Once we get the first post extrapolating past 84 hrs on the NAM, then you KNOW winter is here!

November 1950 started with record warmth. Temps on the 1st exceeded 80F in most areas...then BAM.

lol. still way too early to have confidence in any solution.

Same with DTX; they mention a possible winter storm, very unusual for them this far out as they are conservative

DTX just issued their winter forecast. Slightly above avg temps, above avg precip, near avg snowfall for December. Then average temps, above avg precip, and near to above avg snowfall

consistency of a storm is very good for so far out, of course where it goes no one knows. Unlike the rather last minute Detroit snowfall Sunday and Chicagos snow today, this one will be dissected all week. Let the model mayhem of the 2020-21 season commence!

it was the biggest snowstorm of the winter 1950-51 at Detroit with 6.3", but if I lived thru it in SE MI I'd be insanely jealous of further east lol. The biggest November snowstorm on record for Detroit is 9.2" set wayyy back Nov 11/12, 2019 lol.

Oh for sure. it was a very blah stretch of Novembers 2009- 0 (only 2nd Nov without a flake) 2010- T (slow start to an almost 70" season) 2011- 0.6" (this fell last day of November) 2012- 0.4" 2013- 1.2" (only 94" more to go lol)

lol you're prediction happily failed and we still have almost 5 months of snowstorm potential to go. Joking aside, I had a feeling Toronto would get it good. thermals were meh here but zero complaints about a snowy November Sunday. Model qpf was on point but ratios were terrible. I've not yet emptied my gauge but DTW had 0.58" precip, 1.9" snow. About 0.40-0.45" of that fell as snow.

my thoughts exactly

After the first 2/3 of November featured unusually sunny, quiet weather, the stormy pattern starting to show up in late November is right on cue. Here's to a stormy Winter ahead! I am sure there will be plenty of annoyances along the way (rain, model failures, torches etc.) but overall I feel Nina is going to help us have some fun times ahead.

After starting as a few hours of light rain, it has been snowing nonstop since around 6:00 a.m. qpf definitely verified however it's extremely water logged snow. Cold spots & elevation mean everything in this borderline event. Snow has been slowly melting for hours even though it has never stopped snowing lol. a general 1-4" around SE MI depending on location. Should finish just under 2" here but not that much otg now. Went to the park earlier and drove around, the pic of conifers was the highest area i found while driving.

I am wondering if this is going to be similar to the April 17th snow event. With it being early in the season I could see it going either way. DTX is being very conservative and they may be right, or it could absolutely pour snow and they could totally bust.

Just a heads up, with a moderate la nina in place id bet the house on a Rollercoaster. There will be nice wintry bouts and annoying thaws.

tomorrow looking interesting in southeast Michigan for some wet accumulating snow.

Sustained has always seemed uncommon. I mean most winters either see the cold or mild dominate, but its rare for anything to truly be sustained. I definitely agree that snow is not a way to determine if a winter is cold or mild...and thats why I brought up the rarity of a winter that is both simultaneously abnormally cold AND snowy. For instance, the winter of 1977-78 from a snowfall standpoint essentially died after the Jan 26 blizzard, which is only mid winter...but I don't think anyone would not call that a "cold, snowy winter". That does give me an idea though...I do want to look up later how many winters saw all 3 months finish warmer or colder than avg. btw if anyone is interested, here is a list of nina winters since 1950