michsnowfreak

How far back does sounding data go? Unlike temps, precip, snowfall, there is no easy way to look up dewpoint data. Other than picking a day and looking at the hourly obs, and even then that is just an hourly ob, no intra hour.i glanced at the hot spell of oct 2007 and it had a max hourly dew of 69°, and the hot spell of 1963 was very dry wetbulbs. I looked up a few other warm days in October, and found dews in the mid and upper 60s, but no other 70ﾟ, but I only looked up a few. Based on high and low temperatures, there was a very extended warm and humid spell in October 1879, but I cannot access any hourly data that far back. It's always easy to see when a record high or low temperature of any kind is broken, but dewpoints are kind of our hidden data point. Looking like monday thru wed is very warm then the first real cold blast of autumn hits.

Isnt the ecmwf temp forecast cold?

How cool to see snow on the fall colored trees. What kind of baby fir or spruce tree is that? It will be interesting to see it be completely buried this Winter.

Winter is almost at the northwoods, Bo! The skies cleared out for a blue sky afternoon and the color show is starting to pop.

Wow surprised to hear there is no color in central OH. The shortening days will over power above avg temps sooner or later im sure. Above avg looks to last til about the 12th or 13th. A coworker just remarked that every day. out the office window theres more color showing. I would consider it more than patchy but in the "low" color category so far.

I have always lived in Southeast Michigan, but ive always visited many other places as well. Southeast Michigan is a great spot for a true change in seasons, and I have always wished I had a vacation home somewhere that gets an astronomical amount of snow, but I don't think I could live there full time. Its hard to explain, but its like a part of me would love to live in remote wilderness but another part would hate it. Look forward to pics and obs this winter!

As it's nearing peak up by bo, which will start working its way South, figured i would start a thread for observations on the progress of color, as well as pictures. Some nice early color showing up in Southeast Michigan, nothing abnormal, but I am wondering how the warm weather next week will affect it, if any. It was a late green up, a wet Spring, a dry summer, then a wet start to fall. Mother nature has definitely been playing tricks, but the early color so far seems just fine.

Wow that's odd for Atlanta. Detroit has had 3 times on record where it hit 90° in October. It hit 90ﾟ on October 8, 2007, 92ﾟ on October 7, 1963, and 91ﾟ on October 6, 1963. It also hit 89ﾟ in 1951 and 1953, and 88ﾟ in 1897 in 1951.

Enjoy! I forget, where are you from originally?

Welcome back. Will be nice to read your discussions. Is it very remote where you are?

My guess would be in 3 weeks southern wisconsin would be nice peeping, but past peak in northern. Im counting on the 13-14th to have great color in northern lower MI when im.up there, then the next weekend here.

September finished here with 5.78" rain. The 6.46" at DTW was detroits 4th wettest september on record. Rains avoided us most of summer but that was not the case in september. Getting the magnet ready lol

Its a very gray dark day today. Temps in southeast MI stuck in the 50s. As i said color is off to a good start, i hope the coming weather doesnt hurt it much. I will be in cadillac Oct 13-14 and hoping/expecting it to be peak.

Nice pics! Color has started here.

Low was 45ﾟ yesterday at DTW. Todays the 5th morning this week in the 40s after not having any 40s since June 6. Several times this week the outlying areas of Southeast Michigan did make it into the mid to upper 30s, including 34ﾟat DTX NWS in White Lake yesterday.

Like i always say about the CFS, the fact that it is run every day and is clearly accessible to any weather weenie, really magnifies models have a long way to go in seasonal forecasting. Even looking at the weeklies it changes on a constant basis. That's why trusting those who have pattern recognition is a better way to figure out what might happen the next month or season than trusting a model. I don't mind the gradient look myself, even if I end up on the warmer side of it, it's October. All that means is I'll have to use the furnace less than normal while the color show is blazing. And its worth saying again- all that called building in Canada cant be a bad thing for the looming Winter.

Quite a temperature contrast will be seen from the North to the South to start October. As I said in the Winter thread, I'm liking the cold building in Canada like that. Locally we wll be on the northern fringe of some pretty warm air the first several days of October before normal and below normal temperatures follow. At least that's how it looks right now.

Isn't it something how the 1st flakes are special? Even here, snowflakes fall on probably 60-70 days per year and yet those 1st meaningless, non-accumulating flakes are so special to see. It's good to know the same holds true even up there were you average several hundred inches per year!

Just food for thought. I like how canada will be filling up with unseasonable cold in the coming weeks!

They confirmed a 3rd tornado (in Rockwood). The 3 tornadoes were in relatively close distance to each other. I had a torrential 2.48" of rain in less than an hour, but no severe. Gibralter is just to my south. I missed a tornado on August 1st about 5 miles to my west. Its crazy that in such a lackluster severe season in MI I missed 2 tornadoes by mere miles.

I was not home during it, but when the 3 tornadoes hit SE MI between 830-930pm last night, we had a TORRENTIAL rainfall. In less than an hour we received 2.48" of rain. My 36-hour total was 3.48", bringing my 7-day total to 4.69". This is a sharp turnaround from the dry spell that encompassed much of summer. Sept rainfall imby is 5.70" but at DTW, the 6.41" already ranks as 4th wettest Sept (DTW had a 36-hour rainfall of 2.92", with "only" 1.12" coming in the torrent that dropped 2.48" here). Lots of flash flooding in streets last night.

First official morning in the 40s (48 at DTW, 47 at DET, but it was below 50 for 6 hours) since June 6th. FALL IS HERE

That's not a bad look for this way at all, but all the models are so different and they change so constantly come up the fun is really been sucked out of seasonal forecasting lol

CFS seems to be suffering from a bias and is making a stronger nino then is actually forecast by any other model off. Its also the warmest of sny longrange model going into winter. Last year the late September heat spell is what delayed some of the trees I would guess. It was a late peak in early November, but I do not remember any leaves at the beginning of December, even on the latest trees. This year, the trees bloomed late in the Spring, but we've been dry here, so those 2 factors kind of cancel each other out. Larry cosgrove, who called for a hot September, is calling for much colder weather in October. So we will wait and see but every guess I've heard so far is that peak will be right around average (mid to late Oct). Some of the usual spotty early color is popping up.

The earliest trees are beginning to get color In Michigan too, as Jerry said it has begun! The annual descent into Winter, which seems slow right now, but the mostly green trees now will be bare In 6 or 7 weeks. It's coming fast.