michsnowfreak

I have not seen the Orange one yet, but I saw the yellow one in the store the other day as I was in the check out line so I flipped through. For our region it does show warm and wet with temperatures above normal for each Winter month but it also notes that snowfall will be near normal with several snowy periods. When I used to be more into the almanacs than I am now, I found that the Orange one was better. And no I'm not saying that because it shows a cold snowy Winter lol. When I say better I'm talking about their overall synopsis and summary, obviously the individual days are a guess.

The other post must have been referring to the old farmer's almanac with the yellow cover.

Wow. 68-69 was a terrible Winter here. As a matter of fact, it was the last Winter where Detroit saw less than 20" of snow (only 17.1" fell). And it was not that it was a warm Winter either, just boring city. That Winter aside, the other years show a pretty good consensus for weak ninos being good winters here. However the winters themselves are quite different from each other, despite the end result being good. Which is why analogs are always just taken with a grain of salt. I give 79-80 a pass, because it was coming off a stretch of 6 straight harsh winters lol.

All good winters here except 68-69. What is this new update? What years in the 50s were added as weak ninos? 79-80 was meh here too

Are you close to the airport? You could do it haha. Always remembered you as a snow weenie

Maybe Box could put a blurb in the headline section of their website that they're looking for a snow observer? No excuse not to have one at a first order climate site.

I agree 100%. I think the entire setup is absurd. Considering that most of the major climate sites in northern cities started snowfall measurements anywhere between the 1870s and 1890s and this was part of all the weather observation. Now in the technological age when everything else can be automated, those sites run by the FAA just dont bother to worry about the human augmentation aspect, which is needed for snowfall. NWS offices scramble to take care of that problem by hiring snow paids (or in some cases volunteers). And to be honest, the measurments are much more accurate with the snowpaids than when the FAA took over. The FAA took over at DTW in 1995 and they did the snow measurments until i think 2005? when a snowpaid was hired. I talk to one of the retird mets from dtx (hes a good one too) and he told me sometimes the faa would do good but sometimes they would do so awful (sometimes too high but usually too low) that they would basically analyze the obs and estimate the snowfall bc the faa report sounded so off based on obs and nearby reports. There have been a few snowpaids through the years now (i am one of them) and there has never been any issues. I hear that is the case at other places that have snow paids and volunteers as well. I agree its a shame it even had to get to that point. Im sure if something happens to the winthrop guy they would hurry to get someone else. With snowpaids theres something in the contact basically saying if neither party notifies the other (nws telling the observer they are no longer needed or observer quitting) by September they are bound by that contact and expected to report for the coming snow season.

Oh, then if he does it, sounds like bos doesn't need a snow observer lol. I think the rule is 5 miles or less in any direction from the observation site. Does not have to be AT the site.

I popped into this thread for any preliminary winter thoughts. Definitely not ready for snow yet as I love fall, but its the time of year when I start to think about it lol. Since I noticed all these comments about BOS I had to throw my 2 cents in. I follow a lot of climate data. Mostly in my area but i skim other areas also. I've always thought it was weird that BOS didnt do snow depth measurements. But not having a snow observer? That's crazy and it is important for a first order station. I'm not sure, and you may know more than me, but I don't think the FAA is required to measure snow? And I think some places the FAA guys will do it to be nice but we all know that it's not as accurate as it should be when they do it. A lot of first order sites have separate snow paid observers, including DTW. If anyone on here is 5 miles or less in any direction from BOS, they may be able to earn a little extra winter cash

I have the standard national weather service rain gauge. I've never seen more than 5" of rain in one day however I think it goes up to like something crazy like 20". The actual tube with the funnel attached only goes up to just under 3", then everything else overflows into the metal can (which is the can used in the Winter to catch snow). So then you would just dump the excess from the can into the tube and add all the measurements.

Excellent post Hoosier. It shows the difference in strength of ninos. And naturally any one of those years has other circumstances besides just enso strength. It's nice to have the different winters grouped though, that way everyone can look at their local data to see how things were.

I agree it's too early. It's all speculation at this point. Naturally the mainstream public will hear thepathetically watered and dumbed down story that an el nino is likely so that means warmer and drier than normal Winter. But obviously tons of factors come into play. Snowfall has been on the uptick here so there's no reason to believe it won't be at least an OK Winter unless very strong signs start to point otherwise.

With all this talk about making a Winter thread are not making one yet, I do agree that on weather boards, Winter always looks great in August. But I must say in some other sources it's the opposite. They always say, well this Winter will be mild......if this and this and this and this go right. I've already seen a few stories on the likely coming El nino and the headline is meant to grab the attention of the public and imply Winter will be mild and dry. Then you read the actual article and they say if this and this and this go right lol. Same stuff every year.

Im surprised we do not have a thread yet. We certainly do not need to turn into the New England forum but it wouldn't hurt to have a discussion thread. Way too early to make any assumptions but the 1st snowflakes can easily be flying in the northern part of this sub in 2 months.

Urban heat island is definitely a huge factor. Is it the only factor? Absolutely not but it certainly is a big factor. I've done this with numerous climate sites in Southeast Michigan and I guarantee you would see the same if you did it for sites in Illinois. Pick a climate site that has not changed location and was relatively rural 40 or 50 years ago and is still relatively rural and unaffected by UHI. Then take a site where UHI has drastically increased over the past several decades and you will notice that the difference in temperature is affected by the UHI. That said there's of course cycles and trends as well. We had hoodie wearing cool snaps in July 2009, 2013, 2014. So there are ebbs and flows too.

I can't believe I forgot to comment on this last week. My phone woke me up at 1:00 a.m. with the tornado warning alert. Checking radar it appeared that the storm with just miss me. So what should I do? I went outside of course. I'm guessing that's what the infamous eye of the hurricane feels like. When I went outside it was so calm. No rain falling no rustling of trees just dead calm. Sirens in the distance and slow chirping of crickets. There was a breeze prior to and after the calm but not an ounce of breeze at that time. I could see clouds moving in the sky but there was zero wind. I didnt realize at the time but just 3 miles to my north at that moment 70mph winds were occurring. I live less than 5 miles from where that tornado was reported. In the end that night of storms dropped only 1.20" of rain in wind out with 3.00" just 7 miles West at DTW.

Last weekend we were treated to nice cool highs in the low 70s due to overcast conditions but the rain was light. Today a brief but good storm blew through here, complete with hail, but only dropped 0.20". This brings the July total imby to only 0.88"! That is very dry for any month but especially summer. DTW fared a little better, picking up 0.36" with the storm for 1.26" on the month.

Was on a boat on the Detroit River last night, and it was a spectacular sunset.

We need some rain...but I'll take big winters and crappy severe anyday. Back in the late 1990s when we had a string of boring winters we had very active severe seasons. Seems long ago. Better get the snowmagnet a tune up so its ready to go once again in 3.5 months!!!

That's very hot for no ac!

Jealous!

While May 1911 was one of the warmest on record, the summer of 1911 was not an exceptionally hot summer here; however there was a brutal heatwave July 1-5 which caused some loss of life and a ton of discomfort. It made the front page of the daily newspaper each day.

DTW was a refreshing 55° this morning but most areas outside the heat island or away from the water were in the 40s. Flint got to 46. The usual cold spot, ARB, was 40°!

Impressive. Detroit has done it 5 times total, each time at exactly 80°, the most recent being in 2006 and before that 1942. The warmest low at DTW in this heatwave has been 76°.

Omg I meant downsloping, no idea why I said upsloping