biodhokie

Heavy rain, getting svr gusts sitting at the Westfield mall by democracy Blvd. No hail

Oof. That same storm is cranking out CG at amazing pace.

Mesoscale Discussion 1013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 021704Z - 021900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase through the afternoon with a threat for damaging winds and marginally severe hail. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have already warmed into the upper 80s to near 90 across much of Virginia and Maryland with slightly cooler temperatures across southern Pennsylvania where cloud cover is present. Modifying the IAD 12Z RAOB for current surface conditions shows MLCAPE around 750 J/kg which matches SPC mesoanalysis. Continued heating will lead to additional destabilization and MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg by later this afternoon. A few storms have already started to develop over the higher terrain in eastern West Virginia, where the inhibition has been eroded and a mid-level shortwave trough is traversing the region. Eventually expect storms to move off of the higher terrain with additional development likely across Maryland, Virginia, and southern Pennsylvania as ascent moves east. The 12Z IAD RAOB showed 0-6km shear around 37 knots with at least some increasing mid-level flow forecast this afternoon. Therefore, shear should be sufficient for storm organization including the potential for some rotating updrafts. However, scattered to numerous storms are anticipated in the uncapped atmosphere this afternoon which could lead to colliding storms and a more clustered storm mode. A watch will likely be needed within the hour as more robust/better organized storms develop. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/02/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38127541 37747729 36997951 36798079 36978104 37298109 37738076 38047989 38297961 38887920 39537856 40597640 39547415 38107502 38127541

My guess is what would be considered "Destructive" would be something like the 2012 Derecho.

From Bethesda watching the rain curtains roll through.

It was initially a really strong couplet from the DCA radar.

Parents told me the SVR verified in Spotsy County. They looked to be a few miles NW of the circulation track as it crossed 208 by the courthouse so they couldn't tell me any verify for the TOR.

I can see the DC split already.

Best is to expect nothing and to be surprised. I'm expecting no clearing until about 1 PM and only 2-3 hours of good heating leaving us with gusty showers and a pity blue box or MD.

I get the feeling the cell in VA is going to be the best one of the day, everything looks meh.

DCA: 99 IAD: 101 BWI: 100 RIC: 100

As a lurker, currently it seems like for D2 we are at AmWx Level Yoda since High Risk isn't all in yet. Cautiously excited, hoping to get something bubble up and for someone to get verified SVR tomorrow.

One thing I just realized is that a lot of people aint winning the snowfall prediction contest thanks to this one.

Buses got stuck on Georgia Ave next to colesville here in SS. So there's that.

BWI: 22.3" DCA: 19.1" IAD: 16.5" RIC: 13.4: SBY: 12"

DCA: 11/7 IAD: 11/5 BWI: 11/7 RIC: 11/12 Tiebreaker: 1.53"

Starting to see rotation in the dumfries cell

https://511nj.org/camera

DTSS had hail in in storm,, marble to golf. Was one hell of a storm.

DCA: 97 RIC: 102 IAD: 100 BWI: 99

Well that was unexpected, pea sized hail for a few minutes and rumbles of thunder.

Quarter size fatties dropping in Rockville. Biggest flakes I've seen in a long time

Blacksburg has always been like that. Everyone else getting snow? Blacksburg's getting rain.

BWI: 6.50" DCA: 3.05 IAD: 4.75" RIC: 0 Tiebreaker (SBY): 7.87"