mahk_webstah

I see your strategy...it's been a wild success! Thanks for the info and updates.

I want what he wants.

See HM twitter feed for an in-depth on that overnight.

I read you every day and that was my sense of your energy. But who knows, maybe I was projecting? Lol. I'll stop because it isn't productive or important. And if it feeds the omega troll then it is having an unintended negative impact.

I did. He was having a mini-melt in my judgement. It started in the clipper thread. Snapping a bit in his frustration. Jerry tried talking him back. He brought himself back with help from others. Love guys mean it.

Exactly.

that's not the melt i was referring to.

Melting

Interesting late night read of HM Twitter

I’m mildly optimistic that we are turning the corner up here, though it seems the frustration may last for southern New England. Usually these last several years we transition into something where we’re getting misses or light to moderate events while southern New England is getting crushed and northern New England is getting upslope. Maybe this year we get to get the heavy storms for a little while before everyone else to our south joins in

Nice pairs of moderate snow. Good no growth and probably somewhere between 1 to 2 inches. Nice quick clipper coating

I would think that the one that will cave will be the one that is less clearly picking up the changes coming from the SSW/PV split. I don't know which one that is.

I think we get a widespread New England snowstorm sometime during the week of January 7 and then the pattern just gets progressively snowier and colder for the following six weeks. That would be a pretty good winter particularly with some nino march snow and the early cold and snow for some

Definitely over an inch here

sometimes those 2 work together and create a SWFE on roids, yes?

Jeff hopefully I’ll be saying congrats to you later because you flag this like a week ago.

Do we think this is an early starter? The good thumps come in quicker than forecast and go straight to thumping and then last longer than forecast and fade to light rain or drizzle. Would be nice to start the pack and 2 sloppy inches wouldn’t surprise me nor would 6 heavy inches

Walt Drag from Nyc thread It's early, lots of sensitive interactions between northern and southern streams. My sense, the EC big warmth next week is wrong (Jan 7-11). Too much downhill flow in Canada, plus southern streamers continue and probably pretty good snow cover from somewhere nrn PA through much of NYS into northern central New England, making it easier maintain shallow cold. (a half foot or more increase possible over that of this Dec 30th morning.) Obvious wait and see but EC is very good at holding onto closed lows southern stream, but i tend to doubt its ensemble outlook week two, whereas GFS i think is reading a correct potential for phasing northern and southern streams around Jan 8-9, s of Nova Scotia. Should be an interesting period 1/3-11. Btw, the 00z/30 EC ensembles are a little faster than then the 00z EC op. GGEM/NAEFS is slower than the GFS, and am guessing Jan 4 Long duration comma head event, if I'm reading this right. 06z/30 GEFS is coming around big time to an extensive 1/2" or greater w.e. event. Yes, probably too warm NYC, but not very far nw of I95...its going to be an interesting week of potential substantial snows Jan 4 and 8ish. Another event ensemble ~ Jan 12. So, the trough has been in the east since last July. Means, if it can, it will precip but la/lo northern fringe always in doubt. Am thinking we're good for 1/2" our more qpf 12/31, 1/4 and 8 ne PA-NNJ north to at least I-90. Finally: just a comment on FV3. I have checked on this: to my knowledge here in the ne USA, i dont see it as an improvement on the current GFS model. I am told in 2020, FV3 will be a significant improvement. Meanwhile unsure of FV3 implementation date. wd 8AM

That was a confusing discussion from GYX . Seems like a razors edge. Rain? Snow? If the trend is to ward snow I assume that means a secondary so if that happens then why would it change to rain?

A very confusing zone and discussion from gyx

Je ne sais pas. Demander a dendrite

Not sure but around 100 I think against a 70ish average. A very good year but not nearly as epic as you. Some frustrating storms at times watching you and se my get repeatedly walloped.

I don’t want that anyhow given where I live.

Also, though the WPC 3-7 map doesn't show the secondary, their winter weather maps have increased significantly the %chance of snow over 4" or sleet/ice over .25 for NYE. Maybe just maybe this will continue to trend in the right direction, and as you posited yesterday, give us a positive surprise.

you were on this yesterday.