mahk_webstah

We’ve got probably the best collection of ne snowfall expertise on this forum, anywhere, and it is concentrated in the New England sub forum. And then we’ve also got the best weenieologists

I really like reading g Chris’s discussions: of the attention in the forecast period remains on Wed night into Thu. The pattern continues to look very favorable for a period of heavy precip across the Northeast as a strong S/WV trof makes a run at strong high pressure anchored N of New England. That is a recipe for strong frontogenesis in the WAA ahead of the S/WV. The question locally will be just how far N does that forcing make it. Ensemble guidance continues to show the majority of the spread N of the storm track...suggesting that members are struggling with the influence of high pressure to the N. Indeed ensemble sensitivity products show that the GEFS pressures on the N side of the system are sensitive to both the S/WV itself but also the confluent flow at H5 supporting the high pressure. I am not ready to make strong commitments one way or another at this time...as the S/WV in question will just be moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest later this evening. As sounding network gets a better sample of the height fields tonight confidence in model guidance can start to grow a bit. The 13.00z GEFS took a big step back from significant QPF locally...but still has around a third of the members will some measurable accumulation. The 13.00z ECMWF EPS remains robust with QPF for much of the area. With that in mind I will continue to blend in some high PoP to the baseline NBM forecast...especially for Srn zones. The real tough part of the forecast will be on the Nrn edge of the precip shield...which undoubtedly will be located somewhere in the forecast area. Forecast soundings show a nice dry wedge of air in the mid levels. This will hang tough given the location of high pressure...and I expect some evaporation to eat away at that Nrn edge of precip. I could foresee some sharp gradients on the N side...but at this time it is too early to worry about exact snowfall amounts in that detail.

Wpc has slowly shifted south with the highest snow probabilities. Looks like there’s still a shot at something decent up here but the probabilities are really high for the far north and west suburbs of Washington Philadelphia New York and then over into southern New England. And their projected QPF numbers for esne are high as well, somewhere between one and a half and 2 inches over the next seven days. I still think this might trend north just a little bit but that’s probably just wishful thinking.

what is the trend since their last run? will be interesting to see if any trends develop this afternoon, given a pretty consistent look across models so far.

Lotta time left for tics

Going to be on the line up here. Seems like there’s probably an historical tendency to nudge this northwest a little bit, especially since it seems to be more of an interior job down towards Philly. I guess it’s the strength and position of the position of the block and how strong it is against analogs. Happy to see Chris at GYX leaning towards Northwest nudges. I see the boxing day storm is a classic occluded nudge east northeast the mountains to screw us over up here

One of our friends at gym thinks north trend anchored to our N...current deterministic runs just brush the forecast area with stronger forcing and resulting QPF. Given the antecedent air mass in place...this is looking like an all snow scenario. Much like yesterday the ensemble system all have significant spread...and this spread is mainly on the Nrn side of the storm track. With the offending S/WV trof still over the Pacific Ocean...and more robust sampling of the upper features not expected until Sun at the earliest...I expect run to run shifts in track to continue. Based on the spread pattern...I do expect some of these shifts to be farther NW and bring more QPF to the local area. I have once again opted for a 10 to as high as 20 percent increase over NBM PoP in Srn zones with the anticipation of poleward shifts with time. It would not take too much movement to bring the strongest forcing into extreme Srn zones...so this will be one to watch over the weekend.

WPC map for three days has had probabilities for snowfall that went well up into northern New England. I don’t think they have seen this as a southeast slider, Can you guys keep talking about the mid levels which always excites me

a classic dendrite-dryslat screwjob. Gene will have a sunny day.

with your location, we are almost on the same team.

that is when the gradient and the swfe take over?

I hope the 50-50 isn't too suppressive for some of us, but so far it doesn't look that way. It seems far enough north to not shove everything out to the south.

Kevin is engorged. http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photonov1921.html

A few years ago in February we stayed at the mountain view grand in whitefield. Only a few inches otg there, kinda disappointing. Found a snowmobile rental place in Jefferson and it was a different world. 4-5ft in the woods, snow falling 2” an hour. Amazing fun riding through those woods. 20 minute drive at the most from Whitefield.

I've been to Winter Carnival 3 times. The best city in North American to feel like you are not in North American. Great walking, great food, great boutique hotels. Please keep posting and send pics!!!

All we need is a little bit of blocking to our north northeast to force swfe or Miller Bs. If we get that bit of blocking it will show up in these modeled forecasts but a little to the events. Maybe we start to see that aft this weekend. Truthfully, I’m kind of expecting that.

Covid ruined it for this winter, but not enough of us visit the best snow town in eastern NA-Quebec City

Greatest pack year ever eh? When we moved up here March 31 there was still 24 inches of snow in the yard. I think it got close to 50 inches on the level.

I mean, I'm not a met but doesn't that imply some chances with systems coming under the trough and getting forced south by th blocking in the north atlantic? wouldn't that give us chances, though it is clearly not a perfect pattern.

I think late Dec 2007 was very good in NNE, yes? I didn't move here until the following year. Late December with cold air nearby is a good bet for many of us. I think that 2007-08 winter didn't feature a lot of big storms, but light and moderate ones were frequent. I've learned not to like some of the patterns that the MA and SNE like.

Point taken. It still seems like there are more misses these days and model gyrations. It is not just the maps because you help us see reality. The Euro no longer dependable, gfs kinda new. It all just seems less can be counted on from models these days although maybe it is the bias that comes from paying attention more. It wouldn’t surprise me though that the pace of climate change fooks with the analogue data; Tip has talked about this. I’m not a scientist so can’t provide any reliable analysis. But if the Mets don’t feel the models are worse with these storms, then you are probably right since you work with them every day.

Or the pattern might look different in a day or two..,.as has been happening

You’re missing my larger question. I don’t know the model verification scores on specific storms but it seems busts are more frequent last couple. I realize it could be some sort of bias at play but it seems it’s been a bustorama latelu

Is there any data to support this? Maybe Tip has an idea.

Is it my imagination or is that happening more often lately with storms?